2022 U.S. Open PGA Model Best Bets & Sleeper Picks

The 122nd U.S. Open tees off at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts on Thursday as 156 of the world’s best golfers will try to navigate the Par-70, 7,264-yard course in the hopes of earning a chunk of the $12.5 million purse. Keep reading to see our model’s best finishing position bets. 

Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Last week, we nearly nailed Justin Thomas (+950) to win the RBC Canadian Open and perfectly predicted Rory McIlroy’s Top 5 finish (+200… he won the event) and Sam Burns’ Top 10 finish (+240). Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

Jon Rahm To Win (+1500, PointsBet)

BetQL Projection: +1181 ⭐⭐⭐

Rahm won last year’s U.S. Open after recording birdies on 17 and 18 to win by one shot and our model identified him as the best bet to defend his title at this event. Rahm was very hot with his putter in his T10 showing in the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village, won the Mexico Open in late April and has elite season-long statistics that can’t be ignored. The Spaniard ranks 1st on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, 1st in Greens In Regulation Percentage, 1st in Driving Distance - All Drives and 4th in SG: Tee-To-Green and if he putts like he did in his last tournament, that could put him over the edge in what is a stacked field. BetQL’s PGA Model is giving him +1181 odds to win the event, a value against the +1500 PointsBet odds.

Dustin Johnson Top 5 Finish (+700, BetMGM)

BetQL Projection: +354 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After a missed cut at the PGA Championship and a PGA Tour exit in preference for LIV Golf, Johnson will most likely have a chip on his shoulder for this event, especially after all of the comments those on Tour have made recently. He’s not in the best form, but when factoring in what matters on this golf course (specifically elite iron play), our model projects him to have a big week. We’re giving him +354 odds to finish in the Top 5, a discount against the +700 odds you can find at BetMGM right now. He has odds as short as +500 at some reputable books, so keep that in mind.

Patrick Cantlay Top 10 Finish (+200, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: +180 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cantlay is the world’s No. 3 player and is an amazing ball-striker. While he missed the cut at the PGA Championship in his last major, he had a T3 finish at the Memorial Tournament, a win at the Zurich Classic and a 2nd-place playoff finish at the RBC Heritage in three of his last four overall tournaments. Cantlay ranks 1st in Par 5 Scoring Average, 6th in Birdie Average, 9th in One-Putt Percentage and is an elite golfer. BetQL is giving him +180 odds to finish in the Top 10 versus the +200 odds you can find at DraftKings. 

Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 Finish (+145, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: -102 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

Speaking of ball-strikers, Matsuyama is one of the best in the world. He’s made the cut in eight consecutive major championship starts and ranks 5th on Tour in Scoring Average (Actual), 7th in Birdie Average, 8th in SG: Approach-The-Green, 10th in Greens In Regulation Percentage and 19th in SG: Tee-To-Green. Matsuyama has +145 odds to finish in the Top 20 on FanDuel, a solid discount against the -102 odds that BetQL’s model is giving him.

Russell Henley Top 30 Finish (+210, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: -143 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Another pick, another dominant iron player. This one nearly won last year’s U.S. Open, as he held a share of the first, second and third round leads before collapsing on Sunday. Although he hasn’t performed well at Majors thus far in his career, Henley profiles very well on this course. He ranks 2nd on Tour in SG: Approach-The-Green, 8th in Scoring Average, 12th in Birdie Average, 13th in Greens In Regulation Percentage, 14th in SG: Tee-To-Green and 27th in SG: Around-The-Green. Henley has +210 odds to finish in the Top 30 on FanDuel and stands out as a value pick since BetQL is giving him -143 odds for that outcome.

Webb Simpson Top 40 Finish (+110, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: -242 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

Simpson ranks 16th on Tour in Overall Putting Average and 36th in SG: Around-The-Green and has a T20 and T27 in his last two finishes at the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge. This is the only five-star value of the week, as BetQL is giving him -242 odds to finish in the Top 40 compared to the plus-money you can get at DraftKings right now.