Royal St. George’s Golf and Country Club right outside of Toronto, ON will be the host of the 2022 RBC Canadian Open, as a 156-man field will compete for a $9 million purse, including $1.566 million and 500 FedExCup points to first place. Featuring tree-lined fairways, the Par-70 also has smaller-than-usual greens, so we will focus on ball-striking, accuracy and proficiency with the putter this week.
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Last week, we nailed Daniel Berger’s Top 40 Finish (-120) at the Memorial Tournament when he finished 5th. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
Justin Thomas To Win (+950, PointsBet)
BetQL Projection: +390 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
After winning the PGA Championship, Thomas delivered an absolute dud last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he missed his first cut of the season with a +3 performance through the first two rounds. However, BetQL is giving him +390 odds to rebound and take home the hardware this week, a huge difference from the +950 odds you can still grab at PointsBet. JT ranks 1st in this field in Bogey Avoidance and 3rd in the field in SG: Tee-To-Green and also ranks 1st on Tour in Fairway Proximity, 2nd in Putting Average, 2nd in Birdie Average, 3rd in Scoring Average and 4th in SG: Total. The well-rounded nature of his game is evident in pretty much every round he plays and should be a differentiating factor for him this week. He’s simply the best golfer in this field and the best bet to win, with a slight edge over the guy below.
Rory McIlroy Top 5 Finish (+200, DraftKings)
BetQL Projection: +135 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
McIlroy won this event in 2019, but that took place at Hamilton Golf and Country Club. Nonetheless, he leads the field in SG: Tee-To-Green and has played some solid golf over the last couple months, finishing 2nd at the Masters, 5th at the Wells Fargo Championship, 8th at the PGA Championship and T18th at the Memorial in chronological order. BetQL is giving him +135 odds to finish in the Top 5, a bargain versus the +200 odds you can find at DraftKings. McIlroy also ranks 2nd on Tour in Scoring Average, 3rd in SG: Off-The-Tee, 3rd in SG: Total and 3rd in Driving Distance, which can open up some interesting angles that set him apart on this course. We’ve seen McIlroy make huge shots on and around the green in recent months, so he has a ton of clutch skills that set him apart from the field (along with Thomas).
Sam Burns Top 10 Finish (+240, FanDuel)
BetQL Projection: +141 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Burns ranks 4th in the field in Bogey Avoidance, 9th in SG: Tee-To-Green and 9th in SG: Putting. Further, he ranks 4th on Tour in Birdie Average, 5th in Scoring Average (Actual) 7th in SG: Total and 8th in Putting Average. Therefore, this is a quality golfer who is coming off a win and $1.512 million payday at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He also finished 2nd at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in April, 1st at the Valspar Championship in March and won the Sanderson Farms Open back in September, so he’s no stranger to meaningful Sundays. In all, he’s recorded eight Top 10 finishes in 17 starts this season and BetQL is giving him +141 odds to finish in the Top 10 again at this event, better than the +240 odds you can find at FanDuel.
Tyrrell Hatton Top 20 Finish (+125, FanDuel)
BetQL Projection: -115 ⭐⭐⭐
Keep in mind that the last time this event was played at Royal St. George’s back in 2010, winner Carl Pettersson won with elite putting: 3rd in the field in SG: Putting. It just so happens that Hatton is arguably the best putter on the PGA Tour and ranks 1st in this field and 2nd on Tour in SG: Putting heading into Thursday. In 60 qualifying approach shots on Par 4s and 5s this season, Hatton ranks 1st on tour in Going For The Green: Birdie-Or-Better, as he’s converted 46 of those attempts. Therefore, he’s been consistently able to take advantage of his elite green-reading skills and execute when he’s given himself the opportunity. BetQL is giving him -115 odds to finish in the Top 20, a discount against the +125 FanDuel odds.
Jhonattan Vegas Top 40 Finish (-105, FanDuel)
BetQL Projection: -239 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Vegas won this event in 2016 and 2017 at Glen Abbey Golf and Country Club and BetQL is giving him -239 odds to finish in the Top 40, better than the -105 FanDuel odds. Vegas is a long hitter off the tee and very aggressive approaching the green. In fact, he ranks 3rd on Tour in Going For The Green (139 attempts and 50 non-attempts in qualifying approach shots). While his short game and putting game can be dicey (I’m being nice), the overall quality of his game stands out against others in the competition at this price point. Keep in mind that this field doesn’t exactly resemble a major championship, so Vegas is this week’s best bet to make the weekend and finish in the Top 40.