WTA Rome Preview and Picks

History

The WTA Premier, or now called a 1000 event, has been staged alongside the Men since 1930. Chris Evert still holds the record for most titles (5) and finals (7) played, although that happened between 1970-1984, but Conchita Martinez holds the most consecutive titles won with 4 (1993-1996) while Serena Williams has won the most encounters here – a total of 45.

Simona Halep is the defending champion, as she claimed the tile when Karolina Pliskova was forced to retire in the 2nd set.         

Get all of BetQL's best bets! Dating back a full calendar year, our five-star (max-value) bets have won 61% of the time!

Favorites and Top Seeds

Only Victoria Azarenka (lower back) and Kiki Bertens are absent from the top 20 here. Kiki’s Achilles is not properly healed, and this will cause her losing lot of points and her place not only in top 10 but in top 20 in the coming weeks when Madrid and Rome points got removed.

Last direct acceptance is #52 Jelena Ostapenko, which means a really packed 56 players draw and a weeklong excitement from start to finish is upon us.

Play DFS? Be sure to get a 3-day free trial on RotoQL to check out our projections!

Top Half

World No. 1 Ashleigh Barty just hit 10k points and has been steadily increasing her lead at the top of the women’s rankings. Boosting an unreal 26-4 record for the year which includes 4 titles and a lost final in Madrid

The Aussie’s part of the draw is far from easy with Kudermetova, Mertens, last year finalist Karolina Pliskova and again Sabalenka, who finally beat her from the 3rd time this year, all waiting to prove themselves while taking out the best player in the world.

Elise Mertens retired in Madrid due to left hip/thigh injury so is a serious question mark for this tournament.

Barty has played only 3 editions of the tournament (’17-’19) while losing in qualies, R1 and R3. She opted out to play in Europe at all last year due to Covid-19 concerns.

Aryna and Ashleigh have developed a good rivalry.   Their h2h stands at 4-4, with already 3 played finals this year in Miami on hard court and Stuttgart on clay both won in 3 sets by Barty and 1 in Madrid, but this time won by Aryna. At least if they see each other in Foro Italico will be in the QF. Only Barty and Osaka have more points earned in 2021 than Sabalenka, but as I mentioned for the Aussie already, the Belarussian’s record in Rome is far from good.

No.4 seed Sofia Kenin has been in a slump for some time now and since March has only beaten Andrea Petkovic in a tight 3 set encounter.  She is only 7-7 for the year with a bad -45.3% ROI on the Moneyline and was double bagelled by Azarenka in last year’s edition in the 2nd round.  She needs to regain that spark that made her go berserk and all the way to the French Open final less than 12 months ago as time is ticking and her raking will fall off a cliff if she is not able to cover at least ½ of the dropping points that are coming very soon. This won’t be easy though as the same player that defeated her in Paris – Iga Swiatek is in her same part of the draw and a meeting in R3 is very possible with always dangerous Garbine Muguruza and Elina Svitolina ready to shine again in Rome.

No.5 seed Elina Svitolina won the event twice in a row in 207 and 2018, both times beating Halep, but since then an early loss to Azarenka and a QF defeat to Vondrousova sort of derailed her good record in Rome. The Ukrainian will look for better here as she lost to Jil Teichimann last week in Madrid while being a -450 favorite and has shown in the past that Rome can bring her good fortunes and seems to enjoy the conditions.

Bottom Half

After winning the Australian Open in February, #2 seed Naomi Osaka has played on only 2 events – losing in the QF in Maimi to Maria Sakkari as a -500 favorite and to Karolina Muchova in Madrid as a -200 favorite as well.

The Japanese has a history of underperforming on clay as this is still by far the surface where she is still struggling by far. Only with 47-33 record and -6.5 % ROI on the Moneyline she is a preferable option for her opponents that are drawn around her.

Serena Williams returns in Rome after losing to Osaka in the SF in Australia in February. She has been training in the Mouratoglou academy alongside, of course, her coach Patrick from some time now and look to add to her 3 titles of the event.

Often injured Bianca Andreescu returns as well after a right foot injury forced her to retire in the Miami Final in late March against Barty. Clay isn’t her surface yet, while she has played only 20 matches in her career and none since R1 in French Open 2019. The Canadian has a collision course with Simona Halep, if they both manage to reach the QF.

Simona has 23-9 record of the event, a defending champion and also has lost 2 finals to Elina Svitolina. She was surprisingly beaten from a set up by Elise Mertens while hitting 10 double faults in the process so is something to monitor going forward and if these serve woes would continue to hamper her performance. She has a relatively easier draw with Petra Kvitova matchup being a hard one in the eventual QF and the Romanian is always one of the big favorites here despite the shown form coming in.    

Underdogs and Darkhorses

Pavlyuchenkova peaked in Madrid scoring 4 underdog wins en route to the SF where she was beaten by Sabalenka. It was a really nice surprise and quick turnaround after her loss to Potapova in Istanbul and can do some damage in R1 against Muguruza who has not played since a left thigh injury forced her to retire in the 2nd round in Charleston last month. Muguruza was a late scratch in Madrid as well, so will be interesting to see where her recovery is against an in-form player such as the Russian.

Venus Williams never should be counted out. Past her prime she can still deliver some high-quality matches here or there. R1 vs Karolina Pliskova can be just like that. She is in terrible slump but Karolina isn’t that far ahead either as her transition to new coach since beginning of the year, wasn’t smooth at all while struggling with a 10-8 record and -19.9% ROI on the Money Line

Final Thoughts

Very interesting draw that combines past champions and returning players who were absent due to various of reasons. Halep is the one I am focused and looking forward to make it to the final from the bottom half with maybe Sabalenka making it there from the top as well. Both seem to be on point with their game and believe the conditions suit them while Iga Switaek is my other player to watch as she should start peaking really soon on the road to defend her French Open title.