2023 US Open Tennis Betting Picks & Sleepers

2023 US Open Betting Picks

The US Open begins on Monday, August 28 and and BetQL is your one-stop shop for best bets, sharp and public data and so much more for every single match! Below, you'll see the favorites and sleeper picks for the Men's and Women's Draws!

2023 US Open Women’s Picks

THE FRONTRUNNER: Iga Swiatek (+250, BetMGM)

Last year, Swiatek took down Ons Jabeur 6-2, 7-6 (5) to win her first US Open title and third major. Per USOpen.com, Switaek used her superior court coverage and defensive wizardry throughout the tournament, but especially in the final, where she posted a Steal Score of 43% while limiting Jabeur to a Conversion Score of 57%. Steal Score calculates how often a player has won a point when defending (35% was the tournament average) and Conversion Score calculates how often a player has won a point when attacking. Jabeur had a 69% Conversion Score heading into the final, but Swiatek essentially dismantled her and limited her ability to attack.

Throughout last year’s tournament, Swiatek had a Steal Score of 40%, five points above average, and won 65% of points when on attack. At last year’s Open, players with higher Conversion and Steal Scores won 81% of the time and there’s no reason to predict that Swiatek will fall off in any facet of her game in the 2023 edition. At the baseline, Swiatek was also dominant, winning 54% of Baseline Battles (when both players were at the baseline). Her forehand speed, forehand spin, backhands made in the court and backhand spin were all far superior to the tournament average and was indicative of the fact there were no holes in her game. On this surface at this event, she's the clear favorite and the best bet to win the Women's Draw.

SLEEPER PICK: Karolina Muchova (+2200, PointsBet)

Muchova has gone 33-12 in singles this year and is currently ranked 10th in the world. En route to her recent Western & Southern Open final loss to Coco Gauff, she took down Beatriz Haddad Maia, Petra Martic, Maria Sakkari and Aryna Sabalenka, thus proving that she can beat upper-echelon talent when her game is clicking.

While she has never advanced past the Round of 16 (2020) at the US Open, she’s in really solid form right now and is playing the best tennis of her career. She advanced to the final at Roland Garros and took a set off of Swiatek before eventually falling, but took down notable players on that run as well, so she’s no stranger to the bright lights or pressure of a Grand Slam. She also took a set off of Swiatek when they played in Montreal a couple weeks ago. It’s only a matter of time before she wins a Grand Slam event and I really like these odds at PointsBet.

2023 US Open Men’s Picks

THE FRONTRUNNERS: Novak Djokovic (+140, Caesars) & Carlos Alcaraz (+160, Unibet)

Right now, these are the two best players in the world by a wide margin, and the odds reflect it. At just 20 years old, Alcaraz has won 12 singles titles already, including two Grand Slams (2022 US Open, 2023 Wimbledon). This season, he’s gone 53-6 overall, including 12-1 in Grand Slam play. With no holes in his game, I expect to see him in the final against Djokovic, a three-time winner at this event and 23-time Grand Slam winner.

Djokovic just beat Alcaraz in Cincinnati in a grueling three-setter and will have a chip on his shoulder after being denied entry into the United States due to COVID protocols last year. While Alcaraz is arguably the best player in the world right now, Djokovic is arguably the best hard court player of all-time and is still playing at an elite level. Either one of these guys is a smart pick in any tournament they play.

SLEEPER PICK: Casper Ruud (+4500, FanDuel)

Ruud made the US Open final last year, where he lost to Alcaraz in four sets. With 10 career singles titles under his belt, the Norwegian has consistently been ranked in the top five and has reached three Grand Slam finals without getting over that final hump.

While most of his success has come on clay, he has the all-around talent to make a run and if Alcaraz and Djokovic suffer upset losses, you could make the claim that Ruud is the next-best player in the field.