The 2023 Internazionali BNL D’Italia, referred to as the Italian Open, will take place from May 9 to May 20 in Rome. Played on their famous red clay, this is the final leg of the WTA 1000 clay court season and the winner will come from a field of 96 women and get the biggest share of the purse of just over $3.5 million. With the French Open at Roland Garros just a few weeks away, this is the final tune-up for 18 of the top 20 female players in the world that have committed to play.
The field will be highlighted by Iga Swiatek, who won this tournament in 2021 and 2022. Swiatek beat Ons Jabeur 6-2, 6-2 in last year’s final and then went on to win Roland Garros. World No. 2 Aryna Sabalanka, who just beat Swiatek in Madrid, will also be in the star-studded field along with Jessica Pegula, Caroline Garcia, Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina, Daria Kataskina, Maria Sakkari, Barbora Krejcikova and more.
Camilla Rosatello To Upset Claire Liu
As seen above, our model is projecting Rosatello (+771) to earn a massive upset win over Liu (-923) in the Round of 128. We’re giving Rosatello a 64.81% chance to win this match with a B+ matchup grade, compared to Liu’s B matchup grade. Hailing from Saluzzo, Italy, Rosatello’s game stacks up well against Liu and we’re giving her the edge as a huge underdog in this one. Stay tuned for more free best bets every day!
As mentioned above, Swiatek has won this tournament in two consecutive years, dominating Jabeur 6-2, 6-2 in last year’s final. She’s 9-1 on clay this season, won Stuttgart and just reached the Madrid final, where she fell to No. 2 Sabalenka. Although this event has most of the world’s top women participating, this surface suits Swiatek’s game perfectly. It’s worth noting that she needs to win six matches (not seven due to the first-round bye) to win this year and although she will likely have to face both Elena Rybakina and Jabeur in her draw en route to the title, she should have the edge over the field, just like Novak Djokovic does on the men’s side.
Pliskova won this event in 2019 and finished as the runner-up in 2020 and 2021, so clearly she plays well here. Coming off of a knee injury that forced her out of the Stuttgart Open, there’s some clear doubt about Pliskova in this tournament, but it’s important to note that she has won 16 singles titles at the WTA level, the 6th-most among active players. Therefore, she’s a proven winner that has had a ton of success in the past. This season, she’s won an elite 71.8% of her service games with an 18-8 overall record. The 6’1 talent from the Czech Republic is a great option this week.
Svitolina won back-to-back Rome titles in 2017 and 2018 and is working her way back from a year-long maternity leave. As a former world No. 3, Svitolina was in the Top 10 every single week for over four years from 2017 and 2021 and also has 16 career WTA titles. It’s also worth pointing out that when she reaches a final, she rarely loses, as her 16-3 record in championship matches indicates. She may not be at full strength yet, but, like Pliskova, this is a place where she experienced success at the highest level in the past. In my opinion, she's worth a sprinkle!