Premier League Preview and Pick: Manchester City vs. Chelsea

The highlight of this weekend’s Premier League action just happens to be a preview of the Champions League Final, as Manchester City hosts Chelsea. These two teams recently met in the FA Cup semifinals and both have something meaningful to play for in the Premier League standings this weekend. In other words, this is a loaded matchup that is bound to draw a lot of attention. Manchester City is favored at home with a moneyline of -107. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s moneyline is set at +342, while the odds of a draw are +257.

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Manchester City Preview

While they’ve been the presumed winners for a long time, Man City can officially clinch the Premier League title with a win on Saturday. Of course, the Citizens are already riding high from their mid-week victory over PSG that is sending them to the Champions League final. With that victory, Pep Guardiola’s squad has now won five straight matches across all competitions. The last time Man City lost, fittingly, was against Chelsea in the FA Cup semifinals on April 17.

Since that game, City has gotten back on track and has looked more like the best team in Europe in recent games. They aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard, although there’s nothing wrong with nine goals in their last five games, especially when three of those games have come against top-flight teams (two against PSG and one against Tottenham). The thing to keep in mind is that Guardiola’s team has so many attacking options. Man City has five players who have scored at least seven goals this season. That doesn’t include Kevin De Bruyne, who has scored five goals and dished out 11 assists during Premier League play this season. 

The Citizens have also been strong defensively since losing to Chelsea last month. In their last five games, they’ve allowed just two goals, holding a dangerous PSG squad to just one goal over two legs of the Champions League semifinals. In fact, Man City has conceded more than one goal in a game just once since March 10, largely because they dominate possession and rarely allow their opponents to generate serious goal-scoring opportunities.

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Chelsea Preview

The turnaround at Chelsea under Thomas Tuchel has reached a fever pitch with the Blues qualifying for the Champions League final this week thanks to a 1-0 win over Real Madrid. Of course, Chelsea still hasn’t qualified for next season’s Champions League, which is why this weekend’s game with Man City is crucial for them. The Blues sits in fourth place, leading West Ham United by three points, Tottenham by five points, and Liverpool by seven points. If Chelsea drops points this weekend, the door will become slightly wider for one of those teams to jump ahead of them late in the season.

For the Blues, it’s been all about defense during their recent turnaround. Tuchel’s squad has now kept a clean sheet in five of its last six matches. That includes four straight clean sheets against English opponents. An English team hasn’t scored against Chelsea since Crystal Place on April 10, and that was in a game the Blues won 4-1. The center-back trio of Antonio Rudiger, Thiago Silva, and Andreas Christensen appears to have been the magic elixir that has helped turn around Chelsea’s defensive fortunes.

Meanwhile, the Blues are starting to find more production from their attacking players in recent games. Specifically, Timo Werner has two goals and an assist in his last four games, including a goal against Real Madrid on Wednesday. He may be earning more of Tuchel’s trust, which would be huge for the Blues heading down the stretch. Chelsea also has plenty of attacking talent coming out of midfielders Mason Mount, Kai Havertz, and Christian Pulisic. Havertz scored twice in last week’s game against Fulham while Pulisic had a goal in the first leg against Real Madrid and an assist in the second leg. Of course, Tuchel has rotated his midfielders, so it’s unclear who he will favor against Man City.

The Pick

Chelsea’s defense has been strong lately, but it’ll be put to the ultimate test against Man City. They managed a clean sheet on Wednesday despite only winning 32% of the possession, but City possesses more dynamic attacking talent than Madrid. The Blues will also have one less day than the Citizens to recover from the high of qualifying for the Champions League final. Guardiola’s squad will also be eager to lock up the Premier League title as quickly as possible. On top of that, Man City has more depth to rotate the squad and stay fresh without any drop-off in talent. With revenge also on City’s mind after losing to Chelsea in the FA Cup semifinals, everything points to the Citizens winning this game.

Pick: Manchester City 3-1