Wednesday's NHL trends are collected and ready to go for the Stanley Cup Final. Let's take a look at what you should know before betting on Lightning-Avalanche Game 4.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NHL model has gone 82-48 (63%) on all NHL picks in the past 30 days for a total return of $2,074 on $100 bets, so you'll definitely want to know who the model is backing.
Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final is set to commence, and we have been treated to a great series so far between the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning. Both teams have won their games at home, with the Avalanche winning Games 1 and 2 and Tampa Bay responding with a resounding 6-2 victory in Game 3 at home. Now, we stay in Florida for the fourth game of this series, which promises to be a good one. Let's take a look at both teams and come up with a winning bet for the night.
First of all, the Avalanche certainly did not have their best game in Game 3, but they have been dominating throughout this postseason to date. They are averaging 4.6 goals per game en route to a 14-3 record in the playoffs, which is incredible. At this point, they may not be able to do much better than they have, so it is possible some regression is to take place. One thing to definitely take note of is the shooting percentage that Colorado has at regular strength compared to on the power play. At five-on-five, the Avalanche are shooting at a 9.7% clip, while they are at 11.5% on the man advantage. During the regular season, we saw similar numbers, with a five-on-five percentage of 8.9% and 10.7% on the man advantage. This could be troubling for Colorado. They were held to two goals on Monday, and both came on the man advantage. It was the sixth straight game in which the Lightning held their opponents to zero goals at five-on-five. So, as the power-play chances go away, so does the scoring for the Avalanche.
Tampa Bay knows that they absolutely MUST win this game to tie the series up headed to Colorado again. The good news is that they are at home, where they play some incredible hockey, especially on the defensive side of things. The Lightning have limited opposing teams to six or fewer high-danger chances in six of nine home games this postseason, and Andrei Vasilevskiy has been simply remarkable in net for the Bolts. He has allowed just six goals at five-on-five at home this postseason, resulting in a 97.2% save percentage. At all strengths, he has a 94.7 SV%. Their offense also dramatically increases at home, where they score 3.9 goals per game as opposed to just 2.4 on the road. If they can play disciplined hockey and limit the power play opportunities for the Avalanche, they have a real chance to tie this series up at 2-2.
No one has been able to score on Vasilevskiy at home, and I don't see that changing very much here. Tampa Bay is simply great at home, and I like them to tie this series up tonight.
Give me the Lightning ML at -110 odds.
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