NHL Picks For Today's Games

NHL Picks For Nov. 29

After a very profitable 2022-23 NHL season here on BetQL, myself and the model are going to crush NHL picks yet again. In hockey, turning a profit is all about betting value over the long haul. Most bets here will be plus-money, and if you want to be a long-term winner, that is how you have to play it. Similar to baseball, hockey can be unpredictable, which means underdogs can be very valuable in certain situations, as you'll see in these daily NHL picks.

Let's get into some NHL bets to make tonight!

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NHL Pick: Capitals at Kings

Just a three-game NHL slate on this rivalry Wednesday, but I still have a few bets tonight that we can get into. We'll start in California, where the Washington Capitals will be traveling across the country to take on the Los Angeles Kings.

The Capitals have managed a winning record of 10-6-2 through their first 18 games this season, but there are plenty of reasons to think this team is not that good. First off, their offense is scoring just 2.33 goals per game, which is one of the worst figures in the league. It makes sense considering they are getting 29 shots on goal per game, which is below the league average, so this offense has had some issues, to say the least. There's only so much that Alex Ovechkin can do at his age. Defensively, they are hovering at the league average of 30 shots allowed on their netminders per game, so nothing special there either. However, they have gotten some solid play out of those netminders, with starter Darcy Kuemper owning a 2.95 GA/G and .894 SV%. Not the best numbers, but he's been decent enough.

If you have been following along with me here over the past year or so, you'd know I have been on this Kings bandwagon for quite some time. The signs have been there over the last few seasons that they were an improving bunch that was going to seriously compete in the near future, and this year might be the year they make a deep run. We have never thought of the Kings as an offensive powerhouse, but this season, they are changing the narrative. L.A. is scoring 4.00 goals per game and getting 32 shots on goal per game, meaning this is one of the most lethal offenses to start the year. Defensively, they are the same old Kings we have come to know, allowing just 28 shots on their net each contest. Their biggest weakness over the last few years has been lackluster goaltending, but they seem to have solved that problem with Cam Talbot, who has been lights out with a 2.02 GA/G and .931 SV%.

My Pick: Kings -1.5 (+125, FanDuel). I have Washington rated as a slightly below-average team, while Los Angeles is firmly inside my top-five teams in projections. At home, I think the Kings should be able to get the job done here, and I'll take a shot that they handle business by 2+ goals for some plus-money.

NHL Pick: Canadiens at Blue Jackets

For our second pick of the night, we'll head East to Ohio, where the Montreal Canadiens will be coming across the border to take on the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The Canadiens have compiled a 9-10-2 record through their first 21 games of the 2023 season, which might be better than how they have actually played. I have not seen anything from this team that I feel is even average, so I expect plenty more losses to come in the future. The offense is subpar at best, scoring 2.71 goals per game and getting 29 shots on goal. Nick Suzuki has been their best player, but other than he and Cole Caufield, there is nothing much here to be excited about. While the offense has issues, the defense is a total and complete disaster. They are allowing a whopping 35 shots on their own net per game, one of the highest figures in the NHL. They can't keep opposing teams out of the offensive zone and have been getting dominated in most games. As a result, starting goaltender Jake Allen has struggled with a 3.59 GA/G and .903 SV%. It's hard to be successful while getting peppered with shots like that, but his play has been pretty average even so.

We took Columbus the other night against Boston at a huge +225 number, mostly because I think the Bruins are way overrated this year with how they have played, and we cashed on that one. That does not mean that I think this is a good hockey team, in fact, quite the opposite. I'll admit they are improving, but they still have plenty of issues. The offense hasn't been that bad, getting 31 shots on goal per game, but they haven't been able to capitalize with just 2.91 goals per game. The issues really start with this defense, which is almost as bad as Montreal's, letting up a huge 34 shots on their own netminders each contest. Starter Elvis Merzilikins has been pretty average between the pipes, owning a 3.11 GA/G and .907 SV%.

My Pick: Canadiens ML (+116, FanDuel). I have both of these teams in the bottom half of the NHL, with Montreal being rated as one of the worst teams in my projections. Still, Columbus isn't much better, and I think +116 is a little too high of a number. I cap this game to be closer to +105 for the Canadiens, so I'll take the value with them to get the win here in a pretty even matchup between two bad teams.

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