BetQL Model: Tampa Bay Lightning to Win the Stanley Cup in 5 Games

The 2021 NHL Playoffs are winding down as the Stanley Cup Finals have finally arrived! The series will feature the Montreal Canadiens against the Tampa Bay Lightning, with first two games being played at Amalie Arena, the home of the Lightning. With the Finals starting tonight, we ran BetQL’s model simulations to project both team’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup.

The Lightning are the consensus favorites across the books to win it all, but does wagering on them give you the best value for your money?

To try to identify betting value, we dug into the model’s projections to compare its Stanley Cup Win % against DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook’s Implied odds of winning it all. Let's jump in!

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Bets to Make

Tampa Bay Lightning (-260, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Lightning easily defeated the Hurricanes 4-1 in their first round, but their series against the New York Islanders was a battle to the very end. Tampa Bay ended up defeating New York 1-0 in Game 7 to punch their ticket into the Stanley Cup Finals.

With Game 1 on deck for tonight, the BetQL Model sees an advantage in betting TB this series.

FanDuel currently lists the Lightning with a 72% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Our model has Tampa Bay winning 78% of the time, which means the model still sees value on them at this number.

Tampa Bay Lightning to win 4-1 (+365, DraftKings Sportsbook)

DraftKings lists TB with a 26% chance of lifting Lord Stanley's Cup after five games. The BetQL Model has that exact series ending projected to happen 30% of the time.

So, if you are a little weary of laying the juice on the series number, this is another way to take advantage of the model's projections.

Stay tuned for our game breakdowns, and here's to the Lightning winning the series in 5!