NFL Expert Picks for this Week

BetQL's NFL Expert Picks for this Week

Texans vs Bears
At 1-1, the Bears are already ahead of where most people expected them to be at this point in the season. On top of that, the sharps are largely getting behind them this week to win and cover the 2.5-point spread when they host the Texans. Despite a lopsided loss at the hands of the Packers last week, the Bears showcased a strong rushing attack. David Montgomery rushed for 122 yards on just 15 carries while Khalil Herbert chipped in 38 yards on just four attempts. While Justin Fields scored Chicago’s only touchdown with his legs, he didn’t contribute much on the ground, which is actually a good thing because he can be a handful when he starts running. However, there’s no question that the Bears need more from Fields as a passer. Across two games, he has just 15 completions and 191 passing yards, which isn’t going to get it done.
Meanwhile, the Texans know all about not getting it done offensively, managing just three field goals in a loss to the Broncos last week. Two of those field goals were from beyond 50 yards, so it’s not as if Houston’s offense even got into the red zone on those drives. Over his first two games of the season, Davis Mills has connected on just 56% of his passes while the Houston rushing attack has gained just 3.4 yards per carry and doesn’t have a running play longer than 12 yards. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Mills hasn’t thrown an interception. But unless the Houston defense can dominate the Bears, the Texans could have a hard time scoring enough points to stay within the spread when they visit Soldier Field.

Falcons vs Seahawks
The Seahawks certainly gave people something to think about after they beat the Broncos in Week 1. Even after losing by 20 points to the 49ers last week, the sharps are backing Seattle as a 1.5-point home favorite this week against the Falcons. Geno Smith showed something in that Week 1 victory, although the entire Seattle offense was a disaster last week with the Seahawks scoring their only touchdown on special teams. Ironically, Geno Smith completed 24 of his 30 passes last week. But that didn’t even gain 200 yards and it obviously didn’t get the Seahawks into the end zone. Yet, it’s something to build upon for the Seattle offense. Keep in mind the Seahawks still have DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who give Seattle a distinct advantage because they will be the best skill players on the field in Week 3.
In fairness, the Falcons have been better than expected offensively despite no longer having Matt Ryan and starting the year 0-2. Drake London has made an immediate impact as a rookie, hauling in 19 passes for 160 yards. Marcus Mariota hasn’t been perfect, but he’s had his moments and does give the Atlanta offense a mobile quarterback, which hasn’t been the case in a long time. Of course, the Falcons are still waiting for more out of Kyle Pitts, who has just three catches in two weeks. More importantly, there haven’t been many reasons to be optimistic about the Atlanta defense thus far, although the Falcons did get a special teams touchdown last week. Nevertheless, without a more trustworthy defense, the Falcons are at a clear disadvantage against Seattle this week.

Lions vs Vikings
The Lions have surely been one of the most entertaining teams in the NFL through two weeks, but the sharps are still leaning toward the Vikings in this week’s NFC North rivalry game. Despite a 24-7 loss in Philadelphia on Monday night, it’s not easy to forget about Minnesota’s 23-7 home win over the Packers in Week 1. That victory made the Vikings look like a bonafide playoff contender. Granted, Kirk Cousins has had an uneven start with three touchdown passes and three interceptions in two games. But Justin Jefferson is clearly among the league’s elite wide receivers while Dalvin Cook helps the Vikings maintain a steady rushing attack. Meanwhile, if the Minnesota defense can perform anywhere near the level it did in Week 1, the Vikings are going to have plenty of people on the bandwagon.
As for the Lions, they should head to Minnesota with a little bit of confidence after beating the Commanders last week. They also gave the Eagles a run for their money in Week 1. Of course, until eking out a 29-27 home win over the Vikings last season, they had lost eight straight games against Minnesota. They still don’t have a win in Minnesota since 2017, so the Lions know they’re facing long odds to get a win in addition to the six-point spread. Jared Goff has surprised some people thus far while D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown give Detroit two quality playmakers who are off to fast starts. But the Lions are still a team that’s given up 65 points across two home games, making it hard for the sharps to back them staying competitive on the road.
Here you will find BetQL's free NFL picks for today and our NFL picks for this week. Each week BetQL will highlight our free games and give away our NFL picks against the spread. Each week will do a deep dive into our free NFL picks but also take a look at which side the experts are betting early in the week. Although this page is mostly focused on NFL picks against the spread, BetQL has betting data for every game and every bet type throughout the year. If you bet against the spread that is great but if you are looking for moneyline picks or over under picks we have you covered there too. Keep reading below for picks against the spread from our favorite games this week.

How Do BetQL's NFL Picks Work?

Our NFL picks model analyzes dozens of data points to give you winning picks each and every week. The table above is showing you exactly which side the NFL expert picks are coming in on, and is updated throughout the week so make sure you come back closer to kick off so you can see exactly which side all the experts are betting. Our NFL model works through and simulates every single game thousands of times, and then gives the most likely outcome for each game. The model adapts with each week, using real data and analytics for each team and player to give the most accurate predictions around for every single game, every single week. Each pick will include analysis on how the model projected its bet, as well as where the model would have the game lined. You also get the picks faster, because our model begins working on them as soon as the line opens. With BetQL, there is no more worrying about which games to bet on during the NFL season. We even adapt in-game, so you can find the best value while the ball is in the air. We have you covered for every game, from the first kickoff of the season until the last second ticks off the clock in the Super Bowl. No other sports betting service can get you the picks faster and with a higher winning percentage than BetQL, meaning we will keep you ahead of the bookmakers all season long. If you want to start making the most informed NFL picks and getting the best closing line value around, then subscribe to BetQL and start beating the books.

When Do BetQL's NFL Picks Come Out?

At BetQL all of our NFL picks are released the second the odds, lines, and point spreads are available. Our model takes the betting data and instantly churns out a pick for every game and every bet type, so if your sportsbook has a line you know we have a pick for that game. Although we have picks against the spread the second they are available that doesn't mean our picks are set in stone for the week. The great part about BetQL's NFL picks is they update in real time. If the sportsbook drastically changes the odds of a game our model takes that into account and updates our pick. If there is injury news right before kickoff that will change the outcome of the game our pick model reacts instantly and updates the star rating. Whether you like to make your picks early in the week on Monday morning or wait until right before kickoff on Sunday afternoon, BetQL has you covered.

NFL Expert Picks

If you are searching for NFL picks from the experts you have come to the right place. BetQL has everything you need to know which sides the experts are betting in every single game and every bet type. BetQL makes it easy to see which side the people who make NFL expert picks are backing. You will see the Pro Betting % above that shows which bets the experts like for today, this weekend, and next week. Stop spending your time searching out experts individual picks on a handful of games when BetQL has NFL picks for not only every game but every bet type. No matter how you like to bet on football BetQL has the NFL picks for you. Not only do we have our computer models picks on each game every week, but we have a team of experts working throughout the season to help you make your bets. This is a team of real people who work each week to crunch the numbers and do their own research to find you the best value on certain games. But that’s not where the options stop with BetQL. We have all the betting data you need from the sports books to figure out where the money is going, from public money percentage to expert money. This lets you see where the big bets are being placed, and which side the expert bettors are on. Placing wagers is never easy, and winning involves having all the best information before betting a game. BetQL gives you many options, so you are never stuck with just one way to bet.

One of the best ways, and most profitable ways, to bet the NFL is by looking at the expert action. These numbers will tell you where all the huge tickets are going on a game, compared to where the small wagers are being placed. For example, one team may have a huge number of tickets on them compiling of 90% of the total bets placed on that game for that type of wager, while the other team only has 10%. However, that 10% team may have over 70% of the total money bet on the game, meaning that the bets placed on that team are very large amounts of money. This lets you separate the more inexperienced bettors from the big cats that are placing massive amounts of money on bets every single night. These gamblers are usually expert bettors, people that gamble for a living and have inside sources that help them win bets. We have this data via our BetQL model that tells us the Sharp %, making sure you know where the pros are betting each and every game.

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NFL Picks Against the Spread

At BetQL, we know that sports bettors want the most options possible at their disposal before they place their hard-earned money on an NFL game. Not only do we have our computer models picks on each game every week, but we have a team of experts working throughout the season to help you make your bets. This is a team of real people who work each week to crunch the numbers and do their own research to find you the best value on certain games. But that’s not where the options stop with BetQL. We have all the betting data you need from the sports books to figure out where the money is going, from public money percentage to sharp money. This lets you see where the big bets are being placed, and which side the sharp bettors are on. Placing wagers is never easy, and winning involves having all the best information before betting a game. BetQL gives you many options, so you are never stuck with just one way to bet.

One of the best ways, and most profitable ways, to bet the NFL is by looking at the sharp action. These numbers will tell you where all the huge tickets are going on a game, compared to where the small wagers are being placed. For example, one team may have a huge number of tickets on them compiling of 90% of the total bets placed on that game for that type of wager, while the other team only has 10%. However, that 10% team may have over 70% of the total money bet on the game, meaning that the bets placed on that team are very large amounts of money. This lets you separate the more inexperienced bettors from the big cats that are placing massive amounts of money on bets every single night. These gamblers are usually sharp bettors, people that gamble for a living and have inside sources that help them win bets. We have this data via our BetQL model that tells us the Sharp %, making sure you know where the pros are betting each and every game.

How to Bet the NFL Against the Spread

If you are a die-hard sports bettor, you probably know that a majority of the action in the NFL is against the spread. Much like the college game, this is the most common way that sports bettors bet on football games. Unlike money line bets where you simply pick the outright winner of each game, the spread allows you to bet on the final score of each game. Will the favorite win by x many points, or will the underdog stay within that many points when the final score is decided? What this does is allow people to bet without having to pay a large amount on favorites, or allow them to pick the underdog without having them win the game outright. Usually, lines for spread betting are fairly even and most start out at -110 both ways. This line increases or decreases depending on how much money is going to a certain side of the spread. If everyone is betting on the favorite at -110 to win the game by at least x number of points, the line will move up, costing bettors more to bet that side. The same will happen if all the money comes in on the underdog. Eventually, the actual number of points the team has to cover will increase or decrease depending on where the money goes. BetQL will have you covered all NFL season picking games against the spread, but you should always be informed as to what each bet means. Below you will find an example of betting against the spread.

Example: Chicago Bears (+7, -110) vs. Green Bay Packers (-7, -110)

In this example from one of the NFL’s greatest rivalries, Green Bay is favored by 7 points over Chicago. That means that if you bet on Green Bay, they would have to beat Chicago by at least 8 points for you to win this bet. A win of exactly 7 would be a push, and you would simply get your money back. A bet on Chicago here does not mean that they have to beat Green Bay, rather, they just have to keep the game within 7 points when the final score is announced. Unlike betting this number with Green Bay, if the game is decided by exactly 7 points, you will still win this bet and collect your winnings. Chicago can also win outright for you to win this bet, all that matters is that they do not lose by more than 7 points and you will win.

Now for the second part, the actual odds you have to pay to make the bet. This is fairly simple to understand once you know what the numbers mean. In this instance, both spreads are listed as -110. What this simply means is that in order to win $100, you must bet $110 dollars. The amounts do not have to be this small or large either, as it would mean the same thing with any amount. An $11 wager would win you $10, while an $1100 dollar wager would win you $1000, and so on. This extra price you have to pay is called “vigor” or “juice” on a line. Think of it like a tax you are having to pay the books to place your bet.

There are times when you will occasionally see a “plus-money” line with a spread bet, however, that is very rare. If you do see one, it will simply have a “+” instead of a “-“ in front of the number. Let’s say the number is +160. What this means is that if you bet $100 on this line, you would win $160. So you are not having to pay a tax at all, and instead, you are getting a much higher payout. Lines like these are always on a bet that is more unlikely to win, so you will have to be okay with the risk that involves being in the unfavorable situation.

Want More Football Picks?

BetQL is more than just NFL football picks, our model has everything you need to successfully bet on college football. This time of year we have football on 12+ hours every Saturday and Sunday so make sure you are maximizing your profits with BetQL. When you subscribe to BetQL at the highest level you will get college football best bets from our model, picks for every game from our experts, a line movement tracker, consensus picks for the week, 1st half picks against the spread, and over under picks. No matter how you want to bet on football BetQL has you covered will all of our analysis, picks, and data. Bet a better bettor with BetQL

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