Will Mike Tomlin Have His 1st Losing Season With The Steelers?

BetMGM Insights

As we near the start of the 2024 NFL season, BetMGM has released insights into the season-long win total market, giving us a look at where the money and tickets are going when it comes to betting the over/under.

According to the sportsbook, the Steelers are getting the most tickets and handle to go over their win total of 7.5 wins. This isn't a huge surprise considering the success that Mike Tomlin has had as the head coach in Pittsburgh.

In his 17 years with the Steelers, Tomlin has never produced a losing season, which is quite a remarkable feat. There are plenty of reasons why their win total is so low this year — we'll get into those in a moment — but if the under hits, that means the Steelers will finish with a 7-10 record at best. That also means Tomlin's streak will come to an end.

With this narrative front and center every season when discussing Pittsburgh's win total, it makes sense that the public is all over the over. However, this season presents greater cause for concern. Let me explain...

Tough Schedule Awaits

Pittsburgh played a really tough schedule last season yet were still able to win 10 games and earn a Wild Card bid. This year's schedule, however, only gets harder. The Steelers have the toughest schedule in the league when it comes to opposing win totals and face a brutal stretch to end the season. From Week 11 on, they play vs. Baltimore, at Cleveland, at Cincinnati, vs. Cleveland, at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, vs. Kansas City, and vs. Cincinnati. Talk about tough!

It's hard to see the Steelers being favored in any of those games unless their opponent is dealing with significant health issues.

The first half of their schedule looks easier on paper, but they still play the Falcons, Chargers, Colts, Cowboys, and Jets, all of which I think will be extremely competitive.

Questions At QB

The Steelers moved on from quarterback Kenny Pickett and brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Wilson has the higher floor, but Fields has the higher ceiling. Regardless of which QB starts the season, growing pains are expected early on.

Pittsburgh also hired former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith to take over as offensive coordinator, which means the entire offense will have to learn a brand new system. Pair that with getting used to potentially two different quarterbacks at various points throughout the season, and I don't see this unproven, mediocre receiving corps finding much success. Plus, by the time the offense does put things together, it'll be hitting the toughest part of the schedule.

Betting on the Steelers

With T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick still on the roster, the Steelers' defense will remain strong. What will also remain strong is the chip and blue-collar toughness that Tomlin gets his guys to play with. I just wonder if that's going to be enough to win eight games considering how difficult their opponents are.

Handle and ticket percentages are undoubtedly high because of Tomlin's streak of consecutive non-losing seasons, but this is the year that all comes crashing down. I'll take their under 7.5 wins for a better price at +145.