NFL Week 3 Player Prop Values Featuring Austin Ekeler
The Chargers running back should be in store for a solid receiving day against the Chiefs
Dan Karpuc - Sep 25, 2021, 3:59pm EDT
- Last week, BetQL listed Ravens QB Lamar Jackson over 10.5 rushes (-125, DraftKings) vs. the Chiefs as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ value and projected him to run 16 times for 100 yards. He ran 16 times for 107 yards.
- BetQL also listed Patriots QB Mac Jones under 244.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings) against the Jets as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ value and projected him to throw for 190 yards. He ended up throwing for 186.
- In Week 3, we are targeting Chargers RB Austin Ekeler over 37.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) at the Chiefs, Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds under 10.5 rushes (+100, DraftKings) at the Jaguars and, once again, Mac Jones under 236.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings), this time at home against the Saints.
- Keep reading to find out why each one is a fantastic value (note: DraftKings odds throughout).
Austin Ekeler Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
BetQL Projection: 6 receptions, 70 yards at Chiefs
After not playing any role in the Chargers’ passing game in Week 1, Ekeler returned to his normal three-down role in Week 2. He rushed nine times for 54 yards and caught nine passes on nine targets for an additional 61 yards in a 20-17 loss to the Cowboys.
Since Los Angeles are 6.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs, the game script will likely require Justin Herbert and the Chargers to move the ball through the air. Like previous seasons, this offense is heavily concentrated on Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Ekeler in the passing game, so something like 10-12 targets seems logical.
Therefore, 37.5 receiving yards is a laughably-low total for the pass-catching back.
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Chase Edmonds Under 10.5 Rushes (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
BetQL Projection: 7 Rushes, 30 Yards at Jaguars
Much to the chagrin of Edmonds fantasy owners everywhere, it looks like he’s in a 50:50 committee with fellow running back James Conner. In Week 1 against the Titans, they both touched the ball 16 times, but Conner got 16 carries compared to Edmonds’ 12.
Last week, both backs got eight carries, but Edmonds played a more active role in the receiving game, catching five passes for 29 yards.
It seems that Kliff Kingsbury is going to play the hot-hand approach between the two.
BetQL projects Kyler Murray to throw for 250 yards with two touchdowns against the Jaguars this week (with 40 additional rushing yards), while Conner takes 12 carries for 40 yards and Edmonds carries seven times for 30 yards.
All in all, the Jaguars stink and both backs could get a decent number of carries, but it seems like Edmonds is slowly easing into a third-down role while Conner works on early downs and in short-yardage situations.
Mac Jones Under 236.5 Passing Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
BetQL Projection: 180 Passing Yards, TD vs. Saints
BetQL is projecting this to be a low-scoring game and is giving the Patriots a 20-point team total.
Like last week, this passing yardage prop is way too generous.
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Jones’ IAY (average intended air yards) is just 5.6 per pass play, the 3rd-lowest among all starting quarterbacks. His CAY (average completed air yards) is just 4.4, which ranks 5th-lowest among all starters.
Even though New England hasn’t been the run-heavy offense many projected due to their faith in the rookie, they’re not taking deep risks down the field consistently, which limits the upside of chunk plays downfield.
Let’s not forget what New Orleans did to Aaron Rodgers (15-28, 133 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT) in Week 1.
The under is clearly the best bet here.
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