Week 1 QB Performance Shifts Week 2 Model Projections
BetQL’s NFL Model dynamically reacts to on-field performance in addition to dozens of data points
Dan Karpuc - Sep 19, 2021, 10:12am EDT
- New Orleans Saints QB Jameis Winston went 14-20 for 148 passing yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in a 38-3 rout over the Green Bay Packers in Week 1. As a result, the Saints (-3 consensus) moved from -4.5 to -5.5 (a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ value) in BetQL’s model for their Week 2 road matchup against the Carolina Panthers.
- Houston Texans QB Tyrod Taylor went 21-33 for 291 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 37-21 Week 1 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. As a result, the Texans (+12.5 consensus) moved from +11.5 to +10.5 (a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ value) in BetQL’s model for their Week 2 road game against the Cleveland Browns.
- The Washington Football Team lost QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for the season, which means Taylor Heinicke will take over in Week 2. He relieved Fitzpatrick in WFT’s 20-16 Week 1 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers and went 11-15 for 122 yards and a touchdown, but we’re projecting a regression at the position heading into Week 2 against the Giants at home. As a result, the WFT (-3 consensus) moved from -3.5 to -2.5 in BetQL’s model, thus making the Giants the best bet ATS.
- Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford went 20-26 for 321 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 34-14 Week 1 victory over the Chicago Bears. But, did the BetQL Model adjust for LA’s Week 2 road matchup against the Indianapolis Colts? Click the button below to get a Day Pass and find out!
Saints (-3) at Panthers, Sunday 1:00pm EST ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Saints QB Jameis Winston went 14-20 for 148 passing yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in a 38-3 rout over the Packers in Week 1.
Given his past, this was a wildly shocking and efficient outing for the turnover-prone quarterback.
As a result, the Saints (-3 consensus) moved from -4.5 to -5.5 in BetQL’s model for their Week 2 road matchup against the Panthers.
The model projects the Saints to win 25.5 to 20 and is projecting another conservative outing from Winston: 17 completions for 190 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Texans (+12.5) at Browns, Sunday 1:00pm EST ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Texans QB Tyrod Taylor went 21-33 for 291 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 37-21 Week 1 victory over the Jaguars.
From start to finish, Taylor and the Texans controlled that game and made life tough on their opponents.
As a result, the Texans (+12.5 consensus) moved from +11.5 to +10.5 in BetQL’s model for their Week 2 road game against the Cleveland Browns.
The model is projecting Taylor to put up decent numbers against Cleveland: 17 completions for 270 pass yards, a touchdown and an interception. Assuming Houston will be playing from behind, it wouldn’t be a shock for Taylor to continue to put up solid yardage numbers all season long.
Giants (+3) at Washington Football Team, Thursday 8:20pm EST ⭐
The Washington Football Team lost QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for the season, which means Taylor Heinicke will take over in Week 2. He relieved Fitzpatrick in WFT’s 20-16 Week 1 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers and went 11-15 for 122 yards and a touchdown, but we’re projecting a regression at the position heading into Week 2 against the Giants at home.
As a result, the WFT (-3 consensus) moved from -3.5 to -2.5 in BetQL’s model, thus making the Giants the best bet ATS. However, it’s only a one-star play.
The model is projecting Heinicke to complete 18 passes for 210 passing yards and a touchdown. It’s worth mentioning that DraftKings is listing his yardage total at 238.5, so BetQL is devaluing him.
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