Dolphins vs. Patriots: NFL Week 1 First Look & Lean

The AFC East foes will square off in the first week of the new season

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds

The Miami Dolphins opened as a home favorite for their Week 1 AFC East clash against the New England Patriots. Last season, the Dolphins finished 9-8 SU, 9-7-1 ATS and 7-10 O/U while the Patriots finished 10-8 SU, 10-8 ATS and 10-8 O/U. BetQL has gone 26-17-6 (60.5%) on 1st half ATS Dolphins bets and 10-5-2 (66.7%) on 1st half Patriots ATS bets in Mac Jones’ career. Stay tuned for our model’s best bets in the coming weeks, but scroll down to see where I’m leaning right now.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Week 1 Lean: Over The Total

I’m high on both of these offenses. First, let’s touch on the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa has a lot to prove, but has been preparing to do so this offseason while the front office made some splashes, bringing in wide receiver Tyreek Hill via trade and star tackle Terron Armstead via free agency. With Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki also as options in the passing game and a talented stable of running backs (Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel, Myles Gaskin), this team should definitely put up points under new offensive coordinator Frank Smith.

Even though the Patriots haven’t named OC Josh McDaniels’ replacement, Mac Jones will look to build off of his strong rookie campaign while running backs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will both attempt to set the tone on the ground. Wideout DeVante Parker is now a Patriot and will look to get revenge on his old team while Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith could emerge as contributors. I’m never going to advocate betting any New England player props because I don’t trust the coaching staff whatsoever when it comes to playing time and potential opportunities, but I like this offense as a whole.