NFL Underdog Pick Of The Week

There’s no denying that the Tennessee Titans (7-2) have played their hearts out this season. Riding a five-game winning streak, they’re coming off back-to-back victories without Derrick Henry, the best running back in the sport, including a 28-16 throttling of the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9. Some (not me) might even claim they’re a contender in the AFC.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints (5-3) have all kinds of question marks heading into this matchup. That’s why they’re currently 3-point underdogs. They were riding their own three-game winning streak heading into Week 9, but then lost to the Atlanta Falcons at home. How will the Saints fare without Alvin Kamara (knee)? Is Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill the best option at QB? Will this team be able to stop Tennessee’s aerial attack with both AJ Brown and Julio Jones expected to suit up? 

Right now, those are just a couple of many questions surrounding the team. However, as seen in Week 9 specifically, any team has the ability to win any week in this league, and there are some major historical trends on New Orleans’ side in this matchup. 

Under Sean Payton, the Saints have gone:

• 51-17 SU (+34 units) and 49-18 ATS vs. teams that score 24+ points per game. The Titans average 28.4).

• 24-8 SU (+18.9 units) on teams that score 27+ points per game. 

• 24-3 SU (+24.9 units) and 21-6 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams (32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD). Tennessee ranks 3rd in the NFL in average time of possession (32:12) and 8th in average number of first downs per game (22.3).

• 27-9 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points. They just lost by 2.

• CLICK HERE to see all the best Week 10 NFL trends in our free article!

Here at BetQL, we don’t believe in touting “gut picks”, and as you can see above, there are reasons to bet on the Saints at +3 and on their +140 moneyline to pull off the outright upset. 

As far as their quarterback situation goes, I’d expect to see more of Taysom Hill in this contest. He returned from a concussion to play in the loss to Atlanta, but went 2-2 passing for 33 yards and took one carry for four yards while Siemian went 25-41 for 249 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. As someone who is very much not a Jameis Winston truther, I’d argue that Siemian is essentially the same quality quarterback, so I’d expect similar production week after week in Payton’s offense. The main focus will have to be limiting Tennessee’s pass offense, but overall, I’m going to get action on the Saints in this spot. 

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