Browns vs. Broncos: Trends, Sharp Data, Player Prop Insights
Take a look at this exclusive info before tonight’s Thursday Night Football action
Dan Karpuc - Oct 21, 2021, 1:48pm EDT
- The Cleveland Browns (3-3) host the Denver Broncos (3-3) on the Week 7 edition of Thursday Night Football.
- Under Vic Fangio, the Broncos (+1) have gone 7-0 ATS following a loss to a division rival. They just fell to the Las Vegas Raiders at home.
- Under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns (-120) are 9-1 SU after playing their last game at home.
- Over 41 points is getting love from sharp bettors. While 48% of total bets are backing the over, while 73% of total money wagered is, a Pro Money Advantage of 25%.
- Over 47.5 rushing yards for Broncos RB Javonte Williams (-110, DraftKings) is a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ bet. Our model projects him to rush for 75 yards and a touchdown compared to 30 rushing yards for fellow Denver RB Melvin Gordon III.
Browns-Broncos Trends
Under Vic Fangio, the Broncos (+1) have gone 7-0 ATS following a loss to a division rival. They just fell to the Las Vegas Raiders at home. But, under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns (-120) are 9-1 SU after playing their last game at home.
After starting the season 3-0 against three opponents that combined to go 0-9, it seems like the Broncos have been exposed over their last three games, falling to the Baltimore Ravens at home (23-7), at the Pittsburgh Steelers (27-19) and at home against the Raiders (34-24). Denver also covered in those first three games and has failed to cover in their last three contests, as you probably expected.
Browns backup QB Case Keenum will be starting at quarterback for the injured Baker Mayfield. As a result, Cleveland moved from -165 favorites to -120 favorites after opening all the way at -245.
Cleveland’s three losses this season came at the Kansas City Chiefs (33-29) in Week 1, at the Los Angeles Chargers (47-42) in Week 5 and against the Arizona Cardinals (37-14) last week. Therefore, they were within one possession of being 5-1 right now with two quality wins, but are in a troubling situation this week.
Browns-Broncos Sharp Bet
Over 41 points is getting love from sharp bettors. While 48% of total bets are backing the over, while 73% of total money wagered is, a Pro Money Advantage of 25%.
The over has gone 4-0 in these teams’ games over the last two weeks and it’s clear that pro bettors aren’t firm believers in this being a defensive-oriented battle, which is a bit of a surprise due to all of the injuries on Cleveland’s side.
Browns-Broncos Player Prop
We’re projecting this to be Broncos RB Javonte Williams’ breakout week.
Over 47.5 rushing yards for him (-110, DraftKings) is a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ bet. Our model projects him to rush for 75 yards and a touchdown compared to 30 rushing yards for fellow Denver RB Melvin Gordon III.
Last week, Williams took 11 carries for 53 yards and caught three passes for 15 additional yards in Denver’s 34-24 loss to the Raiders. Gordon took 10 carries for 50 yards and caught three passes for an additional 23 yards in that game and the two have split carries.
The data points to this being a run-heavy game for the Broncos and the rookie has the edge, according to the model.
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