$ Premium: This First-Half Trend Has Us Eyeing a Specific Bet on the Bills
This Bills betting trend is hitting at a 72.2% rate!
Kate Constable - Sep 26, 2023, 4:12pm EDT
Premium Betting Angles: Dolphins vs. Bills
Arguably the best game on the Week 4 NFL slate takes place in Buffalo, as the Bills host the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are coming off one of the best offensive performances we've ever seen. They scored 70 points against the Broncos in Week 3, amassing more than 700 yards of total offense. Tua Tagovailoa threw five touchdowns and Miami rushed for five more, finishing with a franchise-record 350 yards on the ground. With an offense like that, we should take the over 53.5 on Sunday, right? Not so fast.
The Bills are favored by three points, which I think they can cover, but there is a first-half bet that I like even more. It also fits a trend that our model has had a ton of success predicting. Scroll down to see what it is!
The BetQL NFL model has gone 107-63 (63%) on all picks the last two weeks for a total return of $1,950 on $100 bets! Subscribe now to gain access to the rest of this article as well as all of the BetQL model's insights and picks!
Premium Betting Angles: Dolphins vs. Bills
Arguably the best game on the Week 4 NFL slate takes place in Buffalo, as the Bills host the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are coming off one of the best offensive performances we've ever seen. They scored 70 points against the Broncos in Week 3, amassing more than 700 yards of total offense. Tua Tagovailoa threw five touchdowns and Miami rushed for five more, finishing with a franchise-record 350 yards on the ground. With an offense like that, we should take the over 53.5 on Sunday, right? Not so fast.
The Bills are favored by three points, which I think they can cover, but there is a first-half bet that I like even more. It also fits a trend that our model has had a ton of success predicting. Scroll down to see what it is!
The BetQL NFL model has gone 107-63 (63%) on all picks the last two weeks for a total return of $1,950 on $100 bets! Subscribe now to gain access to the rest of this article as well as all of the BetQL model's insights and picks!
Back Buffalo in the First Half
Bills 1H ML (-145, FanDuel)
While we can't overlook what the Dolphins did on Sunday, I don't think we're going to see a repeat performance against Buffalo. The Bills' defense is significantly better than the Broncos' and playing at home gives them an edge. As AFC East foes, these games are always extremely close. The Bills have won the last seven games played in Buffalo, beating Miami 32-29 in Week 15 and 34-31 in the wild-card, although Miami was without Tua.
Knowing that these two teams typically play close games, I think the full-game line is pretty spot on, so I'm not going to touch that. Instead, I like the Bills on the ML in the first half. In the three meetings last season, Buffalo led at the half in two of them and was tied at the break in another. In the games it led, it was up by eight and three. With the first-half spread sitting at -2.5, I'm willing to lay the extra juice for the outright win.
However, what really makes me love this bet is the fact that our BetQL model has been on fire when backing the Bills on the moneyline in the first half. It has a 49-17-9 record, hitting that specific bet 72.2% of the time!
Want to tail this pick? Sign up at FanDuel and get $200 in bonus bets using the welcome offer below!
