Super Bowl Sleeper Pick: Miami Getting Overlooked in 2023

Don't look now, but the NFL season is right around the corner. Preseason games will start next month, and now is the time to get in on the futures market to find some real value on teams before we enter the 2023 season.

A sleeper team is one that isn't being considered as a favorite, but perhaps has a better chance than the market thinks to have success. There are a couple of teams that I like for the upcoming season, including the Miami Dolphins, a team that I think could make a surprise Super Bowl run.

Miami Dolphins to win Super Bowl (+2500, DraftKings)

We have already seen this number go down quite a bit since the beginning of free agency, as I was able to snag Miami at a robust +3300 to win the Super Bowl. There are many things that I like about Miami, but there are also external factors that make me believe the Dolphins can shock people this season.

First off, let's talk about the Miami Dolphins themselves. This is a team that had a ton of promise last season before the injuries to Tua Tagovailoa. His concussions are obviously a massive concern to not only the future of the team, but to his own health as well. However, when healthy, he made huge strides in becoming a franchise QB in 2022. He threw for 3,548 yards and 25 TDs, while only throwing eight interceptions, for a QB rating of 105.5. Remember, that is also while missing time due to his injuries.

With a cast of extremely talented wide receivers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, combined with a rushing attack that comes right out of the Kyle Shanahan playbook from head coach Mike McDaniel, this offense was pumping on all cylinders. I would expect them to do much of the same in 2023 after re-signing RBs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. I also think they are serious contenders to sign Dalvin Cook, which would bolster their offense even further.

Miami made it a point to improve what held them back the most in 2022, and that was the defense. It was a real problem last season, getting ripped to shreds in the air and on the ground, and ultimately that is what doomed them.

The Dolphins immediately upgraded their pass defense by trading for CB Jalen Ramsey from the Rams, pairing him with pro-bowl corner Xavien Howard. The move solidifies a secondary that badly needed help. They also signed LB David Long Jr., who is risky due to injury concerns, but does represent a major upgrade at the position when healthy. Re-signing OLB Andrew Van Ginkel was also an important move that keeps a key player on that side of the ball under contract.

Outside of the team, I think the wheels are starting to give a little bit on the Bills mafia bandwagon in the AFC East. While they still are a talented bunch, they have had several seasons now where they have come up short of expectations. That kind of performance can start to eat away at confidence, and we have already seen top WR Stefon Diggs have some issues. QB Josh Allen noticeably took a step back last season from his 2021 performance, and there are questions about whether Sean McDermott has what it takes to win a championship as head coach.

They also lost LB Tremaine Edmunds to Chicago in free agency, who could be inconsistent at times, but was still a large part of their defense. Buffalo also lost several key players on offense, starting with G Rodger Saffold. The offensive line was poor overall for the Bills last season, but Saffold was the most consistent and reliable. With his departure, it doesn't paint a pretty picture up front.

The Jets are hyped up so much for a team that has not done anything for years. Yes, they added Aaron Rodgers, but how often does signing an older QB actually work out? I am not convinced that Rodgers is anywhere near the player that he used to be, and it isn't like New York has a million weapons around him. In fact, they have a lot of the same people that he was throwing to in Green Bay, and that didn't result in wins.

With all the attention going to Buffalo and New York, Miami is quietly a team that I think people should look at more seriously.