Super Bowl LVII: Expert Picks For Chiefs vs. Eagles Showdown

Super Bowl Picks & Predictions

Super Bowl LVII kicks off Sunday, Feb. 12, with the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles taking on the AFC champ Kansas City Chiefs in Glendale, Ariz. To help you make the best bets for the Super Bowl, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite bets below using key trends and data from the BetQL NFL model.

One trend to note is that the BetQL NFL Model is on fire in the postseason, going 28-10 (74%) across all bets in the divisional and conference championship rounds for a total return of $1,093 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our NFL best bets, including player props, with star ratings for the Super Bowl.

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MORE: SUPER BOWL BETTING GUIDE

Chiefs vs. Eagles

Dan Karpuc: Eagles ML

Since I picked the Eagles to win the Super Bowl before the playoffs started, I’m going to stick with them and trust that they’ll finish the job. Philadelphia has crushed their first two opponents, outscoring the Giants and Niners 69-14 combined, and have a ton of momentum headed into the biggest game of the year. Yes, Patrick Mahomes has been there and done that, but let’s not forget that Jalen Hurts has been no stranger to the spotlight. Those Alabama and Oklahoma teams he played on in college were on bright stages in front of huge crowds and he continuously delivered. This is a whole new level, obviously, but he’s been nothing but a leader in his MVP-caliber campaign. I expect Philadelphia to win this game in the trenches and ultimately come out with the victory. Take the Eagles at the best number.

Matt Horner: Chiefs ML

We saw the early money come in on the Eagles, but now we are starting to see that creep back a little towards the Chiefs. I wasn’t entirely impressed with the Eagles this past weekend, and if San Francisco had a functioning QB in the game, I think you might see a different outcome. K.C. has the ultimate equalizer in Pat Mahomes. Keep an eye on where the money/bets are going, as we are still early, but I like the Chiefs at plus-money while I can get it.

Kate Constable: Chiefs +1.5

I really want the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl because Philly fans are unbearable (sorry, not sorry), but I will admit that the Eagles have quite a few matchup advantages that I think will make it tough on Kansas City. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are going be tough for a Chiefs secondary that isn’t all that great. Philadelphia’s defensive front is also going to give K.C. some challenges after leading the league with 70 sacks.

All that said, I don’t want to bet against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, who have been in this situation quite a bit over the last few years. Mahomes will have two weeks to get his ankle right, and after some of the throws he made on a bum ankle on Sunday, I’ll take the points with him.

Lucy Burdge: Eagles -1.5

The Eagles just destroyed the 49ers in the NFC championship game, while the Chiefs beat the Bengals in a much closer game. And Mahomes will likely not be at 100 percent with his ankle injury, even though he did gut it out against the Bengals. The Eagles also watched the final scene of 8 Mile prior to their win over the Giants, and I would not want to bet against that inspiring them to go all the way and win the Super Bowl. I like the Eagles to cover this and get the win.

Brad Pinkerton: Under 50

I expect to see a lot of movement in the total leading up to the Super Bowl (primarily moving up with positive health reports for Mahomes, Kelce and Hurts), so no rush here, but consider 50 my cut-off for playing the under. Both of these teams have skewed toward the under late in the season and are a combined 0-4 O/U in the playoffs. Yes, injuries have contributed, but we can't ignore that the Chiefs have hit three straight unders, while the Eagles have gone under in four straight. Also, the Chiefs are 3-8 O/U this season when the total is at least 50. What's more, this 50 number would be the highest total the Eagles have seen all season (the highest was 49.5 at home against Minnesota in Week 2, which went under by 18.5 points). As long as the total stays at 50 or higher, I'll play the under.

BONUS: Chiefs-Eagles +210 One-Game Parlay

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Here is my Super Bowl OGP Insurance play, using the strategy of going over the lowest game total and under the highest game total (can only lose a maximum of one leg there), and taking the most points on both teams' alt lines (can only lose one leg here too); you can apply this strategy to any football game:

Chiefs-Eagles Over 39.5
Chiefs-Eagles Under 59.5
Chiefs +11.5
Eagles +8.5
OGP Odds: +210

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MORE: SUPER BOWL BETTING GUIDE | BETQL MODEL TRENDS FOR EAGLES & CHIEFS

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