Super Bowl LIX Defensive Prop Picks for Chiefs vs. Eagles

Leading up to Super Bowl LIX, we are going to be analyzing all kinds of markets that are available for this game, and believe me when I say there are all kinds of markets. Each year, the Super Bowl has betting markets that no other NFL game does throughout the season, and many of these niche markets can hold a lot of value. Defensive props aren’t exactly exclusive to this game, but they are often forgotten about.

In truth, there is a lot of value in these props that many don’t take advantage of. You can bet on tackles + assists, solo tackles, turnovers, safeties, defensive touchdowns, and more. There is so much to get into here, and I have a couple of bets that I have already made that I think are valuable.

Chiefs DE George Karlaftis Over 0.25 Sacks (-103, BetMGM)

While Chris Jones is still the main man on the defensive line for the Chiefs, Karlaftis is the apprentice that is eventually going to replace him as the main force up front. Jones is 30 years old now, and his prime is coming to a close within a year or two. Karlaftis is just 23, years away from even the start of his prime, and registered eight sacks in 2024. He’s a monster that causes havoc in the backfield, and I think he can at least register a half a sack in the game.

I realize that the Eagles are a running team, and they will be running the ball a lot to be sure, but they won’t be if they go down in the game. The Chiefs are a favorite in the game, even if by just a small -1.5 margin, and I think Kansas City will three-peat because the storyline is too good for the NFL to pass up. As such, that means Philadelphia is going to trail at some point most likely, and then they will need to throw the ball. In those obvious passing situations, I expect Steve Spagnuolo to release the hounds.

In a trailing game script for the Eagles, which is what we are betting on here, I think Karlaftis can get back there and take down Jalen Hurts. For all the love Philly’s offensive line gets, they ranked just 20th in sacks allowed this season. This is partly because Hurts hasn’t been great and holds the ball too long, but they haven’t been as vaunted as people think in pass protection either.

Total Turnovers Over 2.5 (+140, BetMGM)

I think there is some value here on there being three turnovers in this game at +140 odds. Laying -185 on there to be fewer than that makes little sense to me, and the value is on the over here at some plus money. I expect that both of these teams are going to be trying to run the ball a lot, and yes, that means the Chiefs as well. The Eagles had the No. 1 ranked passing defense in the NFL this season, while they ranked 10th against the run. While Patrick Mahomes is going to get his, I believe there will be a large dose of Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco in this game for Kansas City. Likewise, Saquon Barkley is going to continue to be the focal point for the Eagles offense, even though the Chiefs were much better at defending the run, ranking 8th this season.

There is a real chance that Barkley isn’t able to get going as much as everyone thinks, and if the Chiefs are able to get out to a lead, that means that the Eagles are going to have to throw the ball. Trusting Jalen Hurts in a big game to throw the ball a bunch is not a very good idea with the way he has played. He’s a great game manager, but take away his star running back, and you have a problem. He’s good for at least one interception here it feels like, which means we just need two more somewhere in this game.

This is mostly a value play on +140, so I only have some baby peanuts on this, but it is still worth a wager.

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