Steelers at Browns Week 3 Preview and Prediction

Pittsburgh Steelers

Yuck. That's about the most proper word I can use to describe the Pittsburgh Steelers so far this season. Yes, they beat the defending AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 (if kickers didn't stink, they would have lost), but looked ugly in Week 2 against the New England Patriots. The more I watch of this football team, the more I am reminded of the Matt Nagy offense I had to endure here in Chicago. Mitch Trubisky seems to have brought that awful system with him to Pittsburgh, as his play has been very reminiscent of his time on the Bears. He's inaccurate, makes careless decisions, throws off his back foot, and has still somehow eluded throwing a pick six in his career.

Mike Tomlin is one of the better coaches of our generation, and the guy is absolutely money as an underdog in his career. If you managed to get a +3 with the Steelers in Week 2, you pushed. They won outright as a dog in Week 1. Now they opened as +5 dogs to the Cleveland Browns on the road this week.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns are apparently back to being the Browns. How on Earth can you lose a football game at home to 85-year-old Joe Flacco and the New York Jets after leading 30-17 in the fourth quarter? Granted, it took a miracle onside kick recovery to do so, but the Browns have to recover that. The miscues and mistakes reminded us of the pre-Baker Mayfield Browns, and it appears this is what the post-Baker Browns look like as well. Mayfield may not be a great quarterback, but something about him in Cleveland sparked that team to do better than it ever has, to be honest. Now with Brissett under center, they are just praying to float around .500 until controversial QB Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension.

Cleveland opened as a 5-point favorite in this game, which I think is a little high. Through two weeks against very bad teams (Panthers and Jets), they have yet to prove they can pull away from a team. A 26-24 victory in Carolina on a last-second field goal and a brutal collapse to the Jets only show me that Cleveland isn't a team that is going to win by margin most of the time.

The defense has been disappointing, to say the least. Carolina and New York both put up 24+ on this Browns team, but I have some happy news. I highly doubt that happens here with Pittsburgh.

My Prediction

There are two bets in this game that I like, and if you actually read the above, you might be able to decipher what I am going to take here. My first play for the game would be the UNDER 40.5. Trubisky vs. Brissett is a disgusting matchup, and both of them will be on a short week, which favors the defenses. I've spent enough time watching Trubisky play to know that the under is always a valuable bet with him starting. Let's not even mention this is Thursday Night Football, where the under is 13-5 since the start of last season.

The second bet I like is Pittsburgh ATS. I know +5 isn't a key number, but you are getting over a field goal here. Cleveland has not proven they can beat a team by margin, and Tomlin as an underdog is almost an automatic play for me every week. This is simply too many points to be giving me with a low total and two bad QBs.