Simulation Model Projects Shocking Number Of TD's For Geno Smith

Positive Projections For Geno

The BetQL Model did 10,000 simulations for every game of the upcoming 2024 NFL season and has a very surprising prediction as to who will lead the NFL in passing touchdowns with 33.

While everyone is going to be placing their money on favorites like Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott, our model thinks that Seattle's Geno Smith is the smart play here at a whopping 40/1 odds right now.

Smith Has Weapons In Seattle

While a 40/1 bet is certainly a longshot, it isn't entirely crazy considering the massive changes that the Seahawks have gone through this offseason in the coaching staff. Pete Carroll is no longer the head coach, and perhaps a change of scenery is just what the team needs to become relevant again. New head coach Mike Macdonald comes in from the Baltimore Ravens, having two very good seasons there running that fantastic defense. He's 36 years old and can bring a younger, more dynamic perspective than what 72-year-old Carroll was running low on.

Gone is offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who took the same position with the Chicago Bears this offseason, and in comes Ryan Grubb. He knows a little something about explosive offenses, as he comes in from the University of Washington, where he was their OC from 2022-24. Grubb led one of the best offenses in the nation to a National Championship appearance last year. His offense is aggressive, which could lead to some big numbers for Smith.

Seattle has weapons all over the offense for Smith as well. Star wide receiver D.K. Metcalf is still on the team, and top prospect Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be entering his sophomore season with some experience under his belt. The always-reliable Tyler Lockett provides veteran leadership and sure hands underneath. The chemistry should be there this season with all three returning, and while there will be some growing pains in a new offense, the talent is top-tier.

Real Geno Must Stand Up

If the Seahawks make it to the postseason this year, it's probably because Smith played more like he did in 2022 than last season. Smith was the story of the NFL in 2022, a 32-year-old journeyman without much NFL success who led the league in completion percentage and threw for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns.

He got a three-year, $75 million contract from Seattle and then had a decent, but ultimately lackluster, season in 2023. He'll have to play much better if he wants to last into 2025 as the starting QB in Seattle, and I think he knows that.