Sharp Betting Picks of the Day for Thursday, December 12

Thursday’s betting action presents some sharp opportunities in the NFL and college basketball. In the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers look like the smarter play against the Los Angeles Rams, despite recent trends favoring the latter. Meanwhile, in NCAAB, the Iowa Hawkeyes present intriguing value as underdogs against the highly-ranked Iowa State Cyclones. Let’s break down these matchups and identify why these plays are gaining traction among sharp bettors.

NFL - 49ers (6-7) -2.5 vs. Rams (7-6): -115, BetMGM

Thursday Night Football is here, so naturally, we are going to have at least a little bit of degen action on it. The San Francisco 49ers will host the Los Angeles Rams, and it is very clear in the market which side is the sharp side here of this matchup.

The Rams are coming off of a huge upset win over the red hot Buffalo Bills, scoring 44 points and carving them up through the air. They are always going to be a popular team with the weapons they have on offense, and a Super Bowl winning quarterback in Matt Stafford, combined with head coach Sean McVay. After that huge win over one of the best teams in the NFL, it is pretty clear the public is backing them here against the injured 49ers.

San Francisco was left for dead a few weeks ago, and everyone seems to have jumped off of their bandwagon with a wide range of injuries to some of their better players. They beat the Bears last weekend in dominating fashion, but that really isn’t a challenge for any team over the last 30 years, so no one is really impressed by that. Now, they are favored here against the Rams.

This seems like a prime spot to fade Los Angeles off of that huge win. The 49ers are far from dead and will be at home here against a Rams defense that allowed the Bills to torch them for 42 points. Public underdogs historically rarely pan out.

NCAAB - Iowa (7-2) +6 vs. #3 Iowa State (7-1): -115, Caesars

This certainly isn’t the most obvious line I have ever seen in college basketball, but I still think it is one that we can take advantage of. I’d probably only play it for a half a unit or so and see where the line goes, but it smells like a trap line here.

Iowa State is ranked No. 3 in the country and has won four straight games, including whipping a ranked Marquette team in that span. They have been red hot and are regarded as one of the best teams in the country. On the other side, Iowa is coming off of a loss to the Michigan Wolverines. They also lost to Utah State not long ago, 77-69, in a terrible performance. While they are 7-2 on the season, they have yet to beat a single team with any merit. Most importantly, they aren’t ranked at all.

Considering how highly ranked and regarded the Cyclones are, I suspect a lot of people are going to back them here at two possessions over the Hawkeyes. I’d feel much more confident if this line was +3.5 or something like that, as I could pretty much guarantee an Iowa win then. At +6, it isn’t as great as maybe I would like it to be, but still worth something here in my opinion. With such a crappy selection of games today, it easily stands out.

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