$ Premium: Week 2 And The Saints Have Some Serious Beef

Premium Betting Angles: Saints vs. Panthers Week 2

Is there an uglier game on the board this weekend? I don't think so. Thankfully, that doesn't matter in betting. Sometimes the games you're able to find the biggest edge in are the ones that are the least exciting on paper. At least that's what I'm hoping is the case in this matchup.

The Saints earned the home win in Week 1, beating the Titans 16-15. Meanwhile, the Panthers lost to the Falcons 24-10 on the road. Carolina is back home this weekend, hosting New Orleans who is a 3-point favorite. The look-ahead line for this game was Panthers -1, so we've seen significant movement since Week 1 concluded. The total opened at 43 and has been bet all the way down to 39.5.

The Saints are the more talented team and they looked much better than the Panthers after one week of play, but there is a trend that's making me want to stay away from backing the road team on Sunday. The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 7:15 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC. Subscribe now to gain access to the rest of this article as well as all of BetQL model's insights and picks!

Dissecting Week 1 Pros And Cons

The Saints offensive line didn't do Derek Carr any favors. The QB was under pressure for most of the game and while the Titans' defensive front is a bit more solid than Carolina's, Carr still needs more time in the pocket. That said, he did finish with 305 passing yards, including 112 receiving yards from Chris Olave. Saints fans have to be happy about the way that duo looked. Running back Jamaal Williams had 18 carries but didn't make much of an impact with only 45 rushing yards. He needs to be better this week with Alvin Kamara still suspended.

Bryce Young struggled in his rookie debut. He threw one touchdown but also finished with two interceptions against Atlanta's defense which is about league average. Things aren't going to get much easier for Young against a Saints secondary that intercepted Ryan Tannehill three times in Week 1. Carolina also has DJ Chark listed as questionable, though he did take part in the team's unofficial practice on Wednesday. With a pretty uninspiring receiving corps, having Chark on the field would be a big plus. Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard were basically the Panthers' entire offense, combining for 132 of the team's 154 rushing yards.

Clearly, there are pros and cons to take away from both teams after opening weekend, and to be perfectly honest, I don't have a strong take on the side in this game. So, instead of giving you a pick that I'm not entirely confident in, I'm going to present you with a few different trends that you can use to make your bet.

Consider Trends Before You Spend

• The Saints have been terrible in Week 2. They haven't won a Week 2 matchup since 2018. That's also the only Week 2 game they've won since 2013.

• The Panthers have won their last two home games against the Saints by jumping out to an early lead in the first half. In 2021 and 2022, Carolina combined to outscore New Orleans 30-0 heading into the break.

• The under has hit in each of the last five meetings between these two teams.

• The under has hit in each of the Saints' last seven games overall.

• New Orleans has only covered once in its last six meetings with NFC South opponents.

• Carolina was 5-4 ATS last year as an underdog of three points or more last season.

It's important to remember not to base your entire handicap off one single trend. Typically, for every trend you find, there is another out there that can counteract it. So, instead, use a trend to guide your thinking, but make sure you take other outside factors into consideration as well.

I won't be wagering on this game, but if I was forced to make a pick, I would take the under. I agree with the line movement pushing this total down and with the question marks on both offenses, I could see this being a sloppy, low-scoring game.

My pick: Under 40 (-110, BetMGM)

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