How “Running the Damn Ball” Affects Dak Prescott and the Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys finished last season 12-5, losing to the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round of the playoffs. Entering the 2023 season, the Cowboys’ offense is likely going to look a bit different than it has in previous years. That’s because former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is no longer with the organization and head coach Mike McCarthy will be taking over all offensive play-calling duties.

What was an offense designed to put as many points as possible on the board as fast as possible is now taking a different approach with McCarthy announcing he wants to “run the damn ball” quite a bit more this year, per Yahoo Sports.

Dallas led the NFL with 31.2 points per game and 407 yards per game in 2021 and has had a top five scoring offense in each of the last two seasons. They also ran the ball at the sixth-highest clip last season, so it will be interesting to see how much more McCarthy actually plans on using his run game. 

Yet, if that’s the path he’s going to take, it will most likely affect quarterback Dak Prescott’s passing numbers. Right now, his total regular season passing yards prop is sitting at 4025.5 at Caesars, which is just a bit higher than where FanDuel has it at 3950.5. With McCarthy telling reporters that he's okay giving up some of the team’s offensive production in order to take better care of the ball, I would look toward the under on Prescott’s total. With a should be a top five defense this year, McCarthy is likely to play more methodically on offense in order to give his defense more rest. 

Prescott finished last season ranked 20th in the league with 2,860 passing yards. That’s significantly lower than where his Caesars has his prop for this season, but we can’t forget that he missed five games near the beginning of the season with injury.

His injury history is part of the reason that I’d take the under. He’s missed time in each of the last three seasons and if that’s the case again this season, he’s going to have quite a bit of ground to make up in order to get near this number. I know the Cowboys brought Brandin Cooks in this offseason, and he should be a solid target for Prescott, but even then, Prescott would need to throw at least 236 yards per game for all 17 games. And after the interception issues he had last season, I don’t trust him to get this done week in and week out.