NFL Week 5 Player Prop Values

Our model identified the following value picks

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Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season is here and BetQL is your one-stop source for best bets, live public and sharp betting data, written analysis,  exclusive sportsbook offers and all of the game-by-game analytics and data you can dream of. We crunched all the numbers and our model identified the following player prop values.

Marcus Mariota Over 200.5 Passing Yards

Game: Falcons +8.5 at Buccaneers, O/U 48

BetQL Projection: 270 Passing Yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

As 8.5-point road underdogs, the game script should require Atlanta to throw the football and considering the fact that Tampa Bay owns one of the league’s top rushing defenses and starting running back Cordarrelle Patterson is now on the IR, things are setting up nicely for Mariota as a passer. BetQL projects him to throw for 270 yards in this matchup, which would blow his 200.5-yard total out of the water. The Buccaneers have allowed 214.3 passing yards per game so far this season and I expect Drake London and Kyle Pitts to be major factors in Atlanta’s game plan this week.

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Travis Etienne Jr. Over 35.5 Rushing Yards

Game: Jaguars -7 vs. Texans, O/U 43.5

BetQL Projection: 95 Rushing Yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Here are Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr.’s snap counts over the last three weeks: 37%, 43%, 51%. In a timeshare with James Robinson, it seems like this team will be more than happy to ride the hot hand. Now, they will get a dream matchup against the Texans and their awful run defense. Houston has allowed 172.0 rushing yards per contest, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL, on 5.1 yards per rush, 7th-worst. Etienne got over this 35.5 number twice in four games and fell just short (32) last week on eight carries. The model is projecting him to break out with 95 rushing yards in this matchup, though.

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Darnell Mooney Over 42.5 Receiving Yards


Game: Bears +7 at Vikings, O/U 44

BetQL Projection: 70 Receiving Yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There’s no sugar-coating it: the Bears have one of the worst passing offenses in recent memory. However, there’s no denying that Mooney is Justin Fields’ top target. Coming off of a four-catch, 94-yard outing against the Giants last week, Mooney has attracted 40% of his team’s air yards. Only seven receivers in the NFL have a higher percentage than that. The Vikings have allowed 263.5 passing yards per contest (7th-worst in NFL) and this is an opportunity to buy very low on Mooney and Chicago’s passing game.

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Dallas Goedert Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

Game: Eagles -5 at Cardinals, O/U 49

BetQL Projection: 60 Receiving Yards ⭐⭐

Continuing a trend from previous seasons, the Cardinals have funneled targets to opposing tight ends, allowing 85.25 yards per game to the position, the 2nd-highest mark in the NFL. Enter Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert, who has been a consistent part of the Eagles’ passing attack so far. He’s racked up 60, 82, 26 and 72 yards in his team’s four victories and has notably recorded numerous long receptions with a high of 27, 24, 23 and 26 in those contests, respectively. Catching 16 of 20 targets so far, it’s clear that Goedert and Jalen Hurts have a solid connection and that should be on full display again.

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