Patriots Name Starting QB Frontrunner, Futures Markets Impacted

Jacoby Brissett Is Clear QB1

It appears as though the Patriots’ quarterback competition between Jacoby Brissett, Drake Maye, Bailey Zappe and Joe Milton III isn’t much of a competition at the moment. 

“Coming out of the spring, I don’t think there’s any doubt — Jacoby is the starting quarterback at this point in time,” Mayo said in his press conference on Tuesday. “We can look at these other quarterbacks on the roster, at the same time it’s about competition. So, when we get out on the field this summer with the pads on, we’ll see how it all plays out. But coming out of the spring, I think it’s clear that Jacoby is the most pro-ready guy we have. He’s played a lot of football.”

After starting his career with the Patriots back in 2016, Brissett spent four years with the Colts and then spent single campaigns with the Dolphins, Browns and Commanders before ending up back in New England on a one-year, $8 million deal. In his career, he’s completed 61.3% of his passes for 10,574 yards, 51 touchdowns and 23 interceptions with an 85.3 quarterback rating, consistently serving as a quality backup and starter (when needed).

Competition Is Not Over

Despite the fact that Brissett may be the Week 1 starter, there’s still a lot of time left for Zappe (who played 10 games under center for the Pats last season) and Milton to make impressions, but all eyes will be on No. 3 overall pick Maye, who was drafted to be the QB of the future and face of the franchise.

“The goal for Drake is to get better each and every day,” Mayo added, regarding the possibility of Maye becoming the Week 1 starter. “And it’s not a straight line up to the top — there will be ups and downs. But if you look left to right [on a chart], you hope that if he started here [further down], he’s here [further up]. … And once again, if he comes out here and he takes full advantage and lights it up, he could be the Day 1 quarterback. But like I said, coming out of the spring, I think it’s Jacoby.”

Zappe completed just 59.9% of his passes for 1,272 yards, six touchdowns and nine interceptions last season and New England went just 2-8 overall in games when he threw a pass. Milton spent six years in college (three years at Michigan and three at Tennessee) and completed 64.7% of his passes for 2,813 yards, 20 touchdowns and five interceptions in 12 games played for the Volunteers last season and also added seven rushing scores with 299 additional yards on the ground.

Maye completed 63.3% of his passes for 3,608 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions last season as a sophomore at North Carolina (12 starts) after completing 66.2% of his throws for 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions as a freshman (14 starts). He rushed for 698 and 449 yards with 16 additional touchdowns over the last two seasons as well, which could add another dimension that New England’s offense has never had. But, he's still regarded as a raw prospect who needs time to develop.

Impact On Futures Markets

As explained in-depth in our Patriots simulation article, after 10,000 sims of every regular-season game, New England is projected to win just 5.4 regular season games this season, the lowest mark among any team in the entire league. The model is also giving them a 1% chance to win the AFC East, the lowest of any team in any division, and New England only has a 4% chance to make the playoffs, also the lowest mark of any NFL team. 

Since quarterback is the most important position on the field, having uncertainty there is wildly concerning and our simulations reflected that concern.

After going 4-13 last season and parting ways with Bill Belichick, it’s hard to be optimistic about the Patriots, who should be stale offensively once again, regardless of who ends up under center. Kendrick Bourne is likely going to enter the season as the top target at wideout, but rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker will likely be asked to step in and produce right away. Tight end Hunter Henry will also be relied on, but as a group, there’s no guarantee that this unit will be able to get separation and give the guy under center chances to make things happen through the air. Rhamondre Stevenson and newly-signed Antonio Gibson will likely shoulder a hefty load at the running back position, but there are major question marks on the offensive line. 

Defensively, the team should be just fine, like they were last season, but could be taxed with being on the field a ton if the offense isn’t efficient. 

New England’s schedule is also brutal to start the year: at Bengals, vs. Seahawks, at Jets, at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Texans, vs. Jacksonville, vs. Jets. There’s a real chance the team will go 0-8. Then in Week 9 and beyond: at Titans, at Bears, vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Colts, at Cardinals, at Bills, vs. Chargers, vs. Bills. Outside of the Titans, Rams and Cardinals, those are likely going to be very difficult matchups.

My prediction is that Brissett will start the season as QB1 and Zappe will begin the year as QB2, giving Maye time to develop. Then, with the season out of hand after Week 13 against the Colts, the team will turn things over to Maye, who would have a bye week to prepare for the Week 15 matchup in Arizona.

Here are the futures I’d consider betting right now: under 4.5 regular season wins (+137, BetRivers), under 3.5 regular season wins (+235, DraftKings), fewest points scored (+500, FanDuel), last team to be winless (+500, FanDuel), to have worst regular season record (+360, FanDuel), Maye under 2,400.5 passing yards (-110, DraftKings) and Stevenson over 750.5 rushing yards (-115, Caesars).