Simulations Project This Team To Finish With NFL's Worst Record
It could be a very long season in New England
Matthew Horner - Jul 16, 2024, 9:47am EDT
Patriots In Peril
When Tom Brady left New England for Tampa Bay, I would venture to guess that many Patriots fans might have known that rough times could be ahead. Yes, they had Bill Belichick, but they didn't have a quarterback. Drafting Mac Jones in the first round offered some hope, and for a year, they thought they had found their QB of the future. Unfortunately, that only lasted that one year, and it has been nothing but pain ever since.
Now, Belichick is gone as well, which ushers in an entirely new era of Patriots football. They have a new rookie head coach in Jerod Mayo and a new rookie signal-caller in Drake Maye. With so little experience at the most important positions in an offensive-minded NFL, that could add up to be a very rough season in 2024 for New England. Times have certainly changed, and our model has some grim news for Pats fans.
BetQL Model Simulations
Our model simulates the 2024 NFL season 10,000 times and then gives us some insights on what is most likely to happen on average for each team. Well, shield your eyes if you are a Patriots fan. It's projecting the Pats to win an NFL-low 5.4 regular season games this season on average. No team had less success than the Patriots did on average each simulation, which doesn't bode well for them.
In addition to this, the model is giving them just a 1% chance to win the AFC East, which is the lowest percentage for any team in any division. They also have only a 4% chance to make the playoffs, which also happens to be the lowest of any team in the NFL.
Futures Odds
When taking a look at the sportsbooks and what the oddsmakers think about New England, they seem to agree with our model that this is going to be a disgusting season for the Patriots. They are 180/1 to win the Super Bowl, with the Panthers (250/1) and Broncos (300/1) the only teams with worse odds. They are -1800 to miss the playoffs, which implies a 95% chance, so they are almost spot on with our model in terms of their chances to make it.
New England is 100/1 to win the AFC, and 25/1 to win the AFC East. That is about a 4% chance to win their division, so oddsmakers are slightly more optimistic about that than our model.
No matter how you look at it, it is likely going to be rough. I'm a Bears fan, so to all you Patriots fans out there who find this unacceptable, imagine the pain I have lived with my whole life.