Patriots at Falcons: Week 11 Thursday Night Football Best Bets & Player Props

All you need to know before betting on this Thursday night matchup

Dan Karpuc - Nov 18, 2021, 10:24am EST

Best Bets & Top Trends

What a shock: the Patriots are back in the hunt. After a 2-4 start in which they also went 2-4 ATS, New England turned things around and have gone 4-0 with a cover in four consecutive games, beating the Jets at home, Chargers on the road, Panthers on the road and the Browns at home. Not only that, but they’ve outscored their opponents 150-50 in that span.

Our model is listing the Patriots (-300) as one of its best bets for this contest.

It’s worth considering that under Bill Belichick, the Pats have gone 20-3 SU (+17.8 units) against teams that allow 27+ points per game. New England has also gone 34-5 SU (+26.3 units) after a win by 28+ points as well as 85-16 (+46.5 units) against teams with losing records under Belichick.

New England also has a spot on our Top 5 ATS Power Rankings list! Grab a Day Pass for just $4.99 to see every other active trend and best bet for this contest!

Player Prop Values

Hunter Henry Over 28.5 Receiving Yards ⭐⭐⭐

BetQL Projection: 4 Receptions, 50 Yards

Henry's per-target efficiency isn't sustainable (he had four catches for 37 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns last week), but the Patriots might have had reason to throw Henry more targets if Cleveland hadn't folded up so early in the 45-7 loss last week. Although his ceiling might be capped somewhat in a Patriots offense that tends to spread the ball around, Henry has demonstrated a convincing floor in recent weeks and becomes a strong candidate to score whenever the Patriots get within range of the end zone. While his fantasy investors would love to see more targets, a modest target count is a lot easier to accept when the player in question has seven touchdowns in seven games. It's probably safe to say that if Mac Jones throws a touchdown, Henry is a strong bet to be the guy catching it.

He’s had a touchdown reception in six of the last seven games and has surpassed this 28.5 yard number in seven of his 10 games played this season. Our model is projecting him to catch four passes for 50 yards in this matchup. CLICK HERE to see every other player prop value for this game!