Patriots at Steelers: TNF Best Bets For Week 14

Patriots at Steelers: TNF Week 14 Betting Preview

The Patriots and Steelers meet on Thursday Night Football for an AFC matchup. Both teams are looking to bounce back from losses in Week 13 after New England fell to the Chargers, 6-0, and Pittsburgh fell to the Cardinals, 24-10. The Steelers are still in the playoff hunt, while the Patriots' postseason hopes are all but eliminated.

The line for this game opened with Pittsburgh as a -6.5 favorite, but with money coming in on the road team, that number has been moved down to -6. The game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video at 8:15 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh.

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Patriots at Steelers: Live Week 14 Odds

New England Patriots Week 14 Outlook

There isn't a whole lot to like about the Patriots this season. They're just 2-10 on the year and have rotated through multiple starting quarterbacks over the previous few weeks. Mac Jones has struggled mightily in his third year and was benched in favor of Bailey Zappe last weekend against the Chargers.

Zappe threw for 141 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. The Pats only had 289 yards of total offense in that game and failed to get on the board. Head coach Bill Belichick wouldn't name a starting QB during his Monday press conference, but "scheduled Bailey Zappe to appear on Monday’s episode of WEEI’s 'Jones & Mego' show, which typically hosts New England’s projected starting quarterback each week," according to NSEN.

Regardless of who's under center, I wouldn't count on this offense to make much of a turnaround on Thursday because New England is likely to be without its starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who left Sunday's game with an ankle injury. Stevenson had rushed for at least 87 yards in his three previous games and was one of the few bright spots for Bill Belichick's offense. Veteran back Ezekiel Elliott will step into Stevenson's place and get the majority of the workload on Thursday, so looking at his rushing props isn't a bad idea.

New England's defense is pretty much the only thing it has going for it at this point of the season. The Pats rank No. 7 in run defense, allowing 94.1 yards per game, and No. 8 in total defense, allowing just 316.8 yards per game. If Belichick and Co. can keep this game close, it'll be because of that specific unit.

Pittsburgh Steelers Week 14 Outlook

The Steelers will start backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky in place of the injured Kenny Pickett on Thursday. Pickett suffered an ankle injury against the Cardinals and underwent surgery on Monday to help expedite the healing process. Head coach Mike Tomlin didn't give a timetable for his return, but based on reports, it sounds like Pickett is likely to miss at least 2-4 weeks.

Trubisky has only seen action in three games this season, including taking over for Pickett on Sunday, but he has failed to get a win in each contest. Pittsburgh's passing offense has been one of the worst in the league with Pickett under center and I don't anticipate that changing with Trubisky. What I do anticipate from Tomlin's squad is a heavy dose of the ground game. The Steelers are No. 14 in rushing yards per game (115.3) with eight of their 18 total TDs this year coming on the ground.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh's red-zone defense ranks No. 5 with a touchdown rate of just 40.6%. The likelihood of New England's offense getting into the red zone is already pretty slim based on its previous performances, so keeping it out of the end zone altogether is something I expect from Pittsburgh's defense.

NFL Expert Picks For Patriots at Steelers

Kate Constable: Under 30.5 (-110, PointsBet)

On paper, this looks more like an Iowa football game than an NFL game. If that narrative plays out on Thursday, we're looking at plenty of punts, field goals and a whole lot of running the ball. Keeping the ball on the ground will drain the clock and, with both defenses being forced to carry their teams in recent weeks, I can't look anywhere other than an under in this game. The total opened at 34 and has been dropping ever since. It currently sits at 30.5, and I'm not sure that number is low enough, so give me the under.

Dan Karpuc: Under 30.5

It’s a short week. The Patriots just lost, 6-0, to the Chargers and can’t score regardless of who their quarterback is. Mitch Trubisky is in for the Steelers, who just put up 10 points in a loss to the Cardinals. This total is absurdly low, but given the current form of these two teams, I feel very confident predicting that this will be a disgusting, low-scoring game.

Lucy Burdge: Steelers -6 (-110, BetMGM)

I love the under in this game and I also have absolutely no faith in the Patriots to do anything on offense, so I see the Steelers easily covering. The Steelers could score one touchdown and that would be too deep of a hole for the Patriots to climb out of to make this any kind of game. The Steelers have covered in two of their last three games, while the Patriots haven’t covered in their last five games. And Mike Tomlin is 14-5 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points while coaching Pittsburgh, so I really like the Steelers to cover here as they take down the Patriots in primetime.

NFL Player Prop Picks For Patriots at Steelers

Dan Karpuc: Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky o0.5 INTs (-140, DraftKings)

While New England’s offense can’t do anything, their defense has been awesome lately. Trubisky has been plagued with turnover issues throughout his career and I expect this defense to continue playing hard for Bill Belichick as the team continues to salvage a disastrous campaign. New England ranks third in the NFL with 19 interceptions this year, so this group knows how to create turnovers.

Lucy Burdge: Steelers RB Najee Harris o59.5 rush yds (-110, BetMGM)

Harris has gone over this total in four of the last five games, with 69 against the Titans, 82 against the Packers, 99 against the Bengals and 63 against the Cardinals last week. And the Steelers are in the top half of the league in rushing yards as a team, so I think Harris can go over on rushing yards again in this game.

Brad Pinkerton: Steelers RB Najee Harris Anytime TD (+200, FanDuel)

Despite the Steelers' offensive woes, Harris actually has five touchdowns in his last seven games. Plus, this is a great price for a Harris TD, which is as low as +138 at another major book. It won't be easy against Belichick's D, but Harris gives the Steelers the best chance to get into the end zone.