NFL Week 3 Opening Line Analysis
Expect these lines to move as the week rolls on - insight on how to approach each one
Dan Karpuc - Sep 18, 2023, 12:25pm EDT
About Opening Line Analysis
In the high-stakes world of NFL betting, where any snap can determine the fate of your wagers, having a winning strategy is paramount. Welcome to the realm of opening line betting analysis, where you can usually capture a ton of value if you act quickly enough. As we dive into Week 3 action, let us be your guiding light to identify value so you can make the most informed decisions possible. Let's take a look at two opening lines that will be on the move leading up to kickoff.
About Opening Line Analysis
In the high-stakes world of NFL betting, where any snap can determine the fate of your wagers, having a winning strategy is paramount. Welcome to the realm of opening line betting analysis, where you can usually capture a ton of value if you act quickly enough. As we dive into Week 3 action, let us be your guiding light to identify value so you can make the most informed decisions possible. Let's take a look at two opening lines that will be on the move leading up to kickoff.
Rams +7.5 at Bengals
After absolutely dominating the Seahawks in their season opener and then keeping things relatively tight in a 30-23 loss to the 49ers in Week 2, the Rams opened at +7.5 against a Bengals squad that started the year with back-to-back losses: 24-3 at the Browns and 27-24 vs. the Ravens.
Most alarmingly, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow has completed 56.9% of his passes for 304 yards, two touchdowns and an interception and has gotten off to a very concerning start despite all of his offensive weapons. Even though he has traditionally been a slow starter, he hasn't looked like the guy who just became the highest-paid player in NFL history.
Meanwhile, despite not having Cooper Kupp active, Rams veteran QB Matthew Stafford has crossed the 300-yard passing threshold in both games, amassing 641 yards while throwing to guys like rookie Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell.
This line is going to move and I’d consider the Rams playable down to +3.5.
Dolphins -6 vs. Broncos
The Dolphins have earned impressive back-to-back wins over the Chargers (36-34) and Patriots (24-17) on the road and now get to play the winless Broncos in their home opener.
Denver lost to the Raiders 17-16 in Week 1 and then 35-33 to the Commanders in Week 2. Giving up 35 points to the Commanders was as embarrassing as it looked and this Broncos defense is going to have a very hard time limiting Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and Co.
BetQL projects Miami to win by 11.5 points, so I’m comfortable playing this all the way to Dolphins -9.5.
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