NFL Prop Zone: Week 3

NFL Prop Zone: Week 3

Welcome to the NFL Prop Zone! I'm Dan Karpuc and I pretty much commit my entire free time to finding player prop values. (That looks a lot more sad when I write it down.) Nonetheless, my goal is to provide the most accurate and elite player prop picks anywhere.

Through two weeks, I've gone 42-18 (70%) for +21.6 units on NFL player prop picks, all of which were discussed on Episodes 1 and 2 of the show.

So, what is the NFL Prop Zone? Well, it's a few different things. It starts with this article that'll go live every Thursday. That leads into my live stream every Saturday night at 11:00pm to midnight ET throughout the season. You can find that at the BetQL YouTube Channel, X (formerly known as Twitter) and Facebook this week. If you follow me @danielkarpuc on X, I'll be sure to send plenty of reminders... I promise.

That leads me to the final part of the NFL Prop Zone: engagement. During the live stream, I'll be going there to answer questions in real time... there's no better way to spend a Saturday night (unless you have literally any plans unlike I do). If you can't make the live stream and do have a social life, you can always replay the episode on Sunday morning before the slate of games kicks off.

On the stream, I'll be going game by game, giving out my top DFS plays and player prop targets and so much more. Segments galore are incoming for the full hour leading up to midnight.

Without further ado, here are my top seven player prop targets. And I'll see you on Saturday night (hopefully).

My Top 7 NFL Prop Targets For Week 3

Bears WR DJ Moore Over 40.5 Receiving Yards at Chiefs (-115, BetMGM)

Following a Week 1 dud in which he caught just two of two targets for 25 yards against the Packers, Moore rebounded with a solid game against the Buccaneers in which he caught six of seven passes for 107 yards. Not only that, but he has a firm grasp on the WR1 role in this Chicago offense, playing 92% and then 91% of the offensive snaps in the first two contests. His 116 snaps are clearly ahead of Chase Claypool (100) and Darnell Mooney (77) and since the Bears are huge underdogs against the Chiefs, I expect Moore to be very active once again in the passing game.

A lot has gone down within Chicago’s organization this week which creates the possibility for a wide range of outcomes, but I see this as a clear misprice, especially assuming that this will be a pass-heavy game script for the Bears, who will likely be playing catch-up all game.

Bills RB James Cook Over 74.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards at Commanders (-115, BetMGM)

If there was any doubt about who the RB1 is in Buffalo heading into the season, it’s now erased. Cook has played 59% of the snaps in Week 1 and Week 2 and has outsnapped his backups Latavius Murray and Damien Harris 87-to-57. Unfortunately both Murray and Harris stole touchdowns from Cook last week, but he will be tasked with the lion’s share of the touches out of this backfield, making him a very valuable target week after week. In Week 2 against the Raiders as a favorite (just like the Bills are this week at the Commanders), Cook took 17 carries for 123 yards and added four catches for 36 yards in a 38-10 win.

He doesn’t need to come close to matching that to easily win this rushing + receiving yards bet and if he gets 20+ touches again, he should cruise over it.

Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. Anytime TD vs. Texans (-105, DraftKings)

Heading into this season, there was some concern of whether or not Travis Etienne Jr. would lose his true RB1 status with the addition of rookie Tank Bigsby, who had an awesome preseason. However, through two weeks, it’s very clear that Etienne has a stranglehold on this backfield. In Week 1, he saw 80% of offensive snaps, compared to 21% from Bigsby. In Week 2, Etienne saw 72% while Bigsby saw 19%. Not only that, but in Week 1, Etienne out-touched Bigsby 23-to-7 and in Week 2, 14-to-0.

In a favorable game script against a Texans team that just gave up 126 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the depleted Colts rushing attack in Week 2, I love Etienne’s outlook this week and think he will find the endzone at least once.

Texans WR Nico Collins Over 53.5 Receiving Yards at Jaguars (-115, BetMGM)

It seems as though rookie Texans QB CJ Stroud has a favorite target. Collins caught six of 11 targets for 80 yards at the Ravens in Week 1 and followed that up by catching seven of nine targets for 146 yards and a touchdown against the Colts in Week 2.

Through those weeks, he’s not only been targeted on 33% of Houston’s passes to wide receivers, but he’s also been targeted on 40.74% of Stroud’s targeted air yards (10th most in NFL). So far, the Jags have allowed 166 yards per game to opposing wideouts, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. I expect him to keep producing until he proves us wrong.

Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker Anytime TD vs. Panthers (-105, DraftKings)

The Panthers have allowed four touchdowns to opposing running backs through two games (tied for most in the NFL), thus putting Walker in an awesome spot at this price. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Walker ranks 7th among NFL rushers in Efficiency and is coming off a two-touchdown performance at the Lions in Week 2. He touched the ball 16 times and then 18 times and I love his upside as the lead back on a team that’s clearly favored.

At this point, there’s no reason to assume that Walker will lose out on his RB1 snaps; he’s been on the field for 76 compared to 31 by rookie Zach Charbonnet and 20 by DeeJay Dallas. I love Walker’s upside in this spot.

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD vs. Falcons (-135, DraftKings)

With David Montgomery out, this will be the Jahmyr Gibbs show in Detroit’s backfield. Gibbs was on the field for 27% of snaps in Week 1 and 48% in Week 2 and cumulatively took 14 carries for 42 yards and nine catches on 11 targets for 57 yards. Utilized as both a traditional runner and a receiving back, Gibbs has the ability to find the end zone in a variety of ways, which makes this an even safer prop to bet.

Montgomery played 79% and then 45% of the snaps in Week 1 and Week 2, respectively, cumulatively taking 37 carries for 141 rushing yards with 21 and then 17 touches. Those touches have to go somewhere and I’d be shocked if Gibbs doesn’t have the ball in his hands 20 times in this matchup. Assuming that his workload will jump up, he should find pay dirt.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 100.5 Receiving Yards vs. Chargers (-114, FanDuel)

Opposing wide receivers have racked up 282 yards per game against this Chargers defense, which is the highest amount in the entire NFL in the small sample size. Somehow, 100.5 receiving yards is too low for Jefferson, who racked up 150 yards on nine catches (12 targets) in Week 1 against the Buccaneers and then 159 yards on 11 catches (13 targets) against the Eagles in Week 2.

This game has serious shootout potential and neither team has gotten much out of their running backs, so don’t be shocked if Jefferson puts up absurd numbers once again. Through two games, Jefferson has been targeted on 25 of 48 passes thrown to Vikings wideouts and he will continue to be matchup-proof. Don’t be afraid to grab some of his alternate line props and laddering him up past the 150-yard mark for the third-straight game.

More Week 3 NFL Player Prop Picks

Amari Cooper o4.5 Rec vs. TEN (-110, PointsBet)

Amari Cooper o57.5 Rec Yds vs. TEN (-115, BetMGM)

Kirk Cousins o290.5 Pass Yds vs. LAC (-115, PointsBet)

Jordan Addison o49.5 Rec Yds vs. LAC (-113, FanDuel)

Jordan Addison o3.5 Rec vs. LAC (-146, FanDuel)

Zay Flowers o4.5 Rec vs. IND (+105, BetMGM)

Tony Pollard o71.5 Rush Yds @ ARI (-115, BetMGM)

Tony Pollard ATTD @ ARI (-175, BetMGM)

Adam Thielen o3.5 Rec @ SEA (+108, BetRivers)

Davante Adams o73.5 Rec Yds vs. PIT (-115, BetRivers)

Mike Williams o23.5 Longest Rec @ MIN (-114, FanDuel)

Raheem Mostert o57.5 Rush Yds vs. DEN (-113, FanDuel)

Week 3 Monday Night Football Prop Picks

Jalen Hurts Over 20.5 Passing Completions (-108, FanDuel): Hurts had 22 and then 18 completions in Weeks 1 and 2 and this will be a more pass-happy game script for the Eagles. 

DeVonta Smith Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115, PointsBet): TB has pass funnel D & only Smith (15), AJ Brown (16) & Quez Watkins (2) have seen WR targets for PHI. Smith is coming off 131 receiving yards in Week 2 and BetQL projects him to rack up 85. Last week, DJ Moore caught six passes for 104 receiving yards against this Tampa Bay defense (and Justin Fields threw for 211). 

AJ Brown Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel): Like Smith, I think Brown is in a great spot tonight. BetQL projects him to amass 115 receiving yards which further highlights why I love his potential in this matchup. Keep in mind that not only did Tampa Bay’s defense get lit up by DJ Moore last week, but Justin Jefferson crushed them for 150 yards in Week 1 and they let Kirk Cousins throw for 344 yards in that one.

Dallas Goedert Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings): After a dud in Week 1, Goedert caught six of seven targets for 22 yards in Week 2, but this is a much better spot for him to produce. BetQL projects him to record 50, following suit with the previous picks. In Week 1, the Eagles allowed Vikings tight ends TJ Hockenson and Josh Oliver to combine for 11 catches and 67 yards and then Bears TE Cole Kmet put up four catches for 38 yards last week. Love this number.

Baker Mayfield Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-115, PointsBet): The Bucs will need to throw the ball against the Eagles and through two weeks, Mac Jones (316 yards) and Kirk Cousins (364) have lit Philadelphia up through the air. You might have to hold your nose backing Mayfield, but this number is simply too low.

Cade Otton Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-117, BetRivers): This Eagles defense has been the most porous in the NFL to the tight end position, allowing an average of 8.5 catches on 10.0 targets for 85.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. TJ Hockenson crushed Philadelphia’s defense last week (seven catches, 66 yards, two TD) while backup TE Josh Oliver even caught two more passes for 13 yards. In Week 1, Hunter Henry accumulated five catches for 56 yards and a TD while Mike Gesicki added three catches for 36 yards. 

After catching two of three targets for 19 yards in Week 1 against the Vikings, Otton caught all six targets for 41 yards against the Bears and will be a big part of the passing game tonight, especially because the Eagles have the best run defense in the entire NFL (and the Buccaneers can’t run the ball in general). Otton’s workload won’t be an issue, either. He played 97% of offensive snaps in Week 1 and then 97% in Week 2. I LOVE his upside tonight.

Mike Evans Over 22.5 Longest Reception (-114, FanDuel): Evans has been Baker Mayfield’s top downfield target and had a 28-yard catch in Week 1 and then a 70-yard touchdown catch last week. This number is simply too low.