NFL Playoffs: Top Player Props For Bengals-Chiefs AFC Championship
See which NFL player prop bets we're targeting in the AFC Championship!
NFL Player Prop Bets
The 2023 NFL playoffs continue Sunday with the NFC title game between the 49ers and Eagles and the AFC title game between the Bengals and Chiefs. To help you make the best bets, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite player props below using key trends and data from the BetQL NFL model.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our NFL best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets!
NFL Player Prop Bets
The 2023 NFL playoffs continue Sunday with the NFC title game between the 49ers and Eagles and the AFC title game between the Bengals and Chiefs. To help you make the best bets, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite player props below using key trends and data from the BetQL NFL model.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our NFL best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets!
Brad Pinkerton: Give Me All The Burrow Passing TDs You Have
Did you know that the Chiefs allowed a league-high 33 passing touchdowns in the regular season? (You probably did because you're really smart and we mentioned it a few dozen times along the way.) Next up: Joe Burrow and Co., who will be getting a lot of my money this weekend. Now, -180ish for Burrow to go over 1.5 passing TDs isn't great, but Burrow o1.5 pass TDs is -160 as part of an SGP on DraftKings; o2.5 TDs is +220 there as well and worth pairing with a shorter leg.
Meanwhile, someone has to catch Burrow's TDs, which is where the real value is. Here's the positional breakdown on those passing TDs allowed by the Chiefs: 20 to WRs (tied for second most); nine to TEs (tied for fifth most); four to RBs (tied for seventh most). With that in mind, here are the player props I'm looking at to take advantage:
- Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD (+100 at DraftKings)
- Tee Higgins anytime TD (+195 at DraftKings)
- Tyler Boyd anytime TD (+320 at DraftKings, or +340 in a DK SGP)
- Hayden Hurst anytime TD (+320 at FanDuel or DK SGP)
Dan Karpuc: Joe Burrow o274.5 Pass Yds (-114, FanDuel)
I’ve gotten to the point where I’m never going to fade Joe Cool in the playoffs. BetQL is projecting him to throw for 320 yards against a Chiefs defense that hasn’t exactly been stout against the pass. In their regular-season meeting, Burrow went 25-for-31 for 286 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 27-24 Bengals win. While the health of Patrick Mahomes’ ankle is an important factor of this prop hitting (assuming there will be a back-and-forth offensive battle), this Bengals offense has a lot of weapons and Burrow can utilize Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst and even the backs in the passing game. I’m ready for another clutch performance from the star QB.
Matt Horner: Hayden Hurst o3.5 rec (-165, DraftKings)
Juicy, but I still think there is value here. Hurst has gotten at least four catches in 10 of 15 games this season. Against Kansas City this season, Hurst was targeted three times on just six plays before he was injured and had to leave the game. I think he gets his here against a K.C. pass defense that is ranked 28th in DVOA.
Lucy Burdge: Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD (+100, DraftKings)
Chase has scored a touchdown each of his last three games and in five of his last six. He also has nine total touchdowns in his last nine games, so he is certainly no stranger to scoring. I think Joe Burrow will look to him often to score in the AFC championship game against a weak Chiefs pass D.
Kate Constable: Tyler Boyd o30.5 rec yds (-125, PointsBet)
Tyler Boyd has gone over this number in 12 of 17 games during the regular season. That includes a 60-yard receiving game against the Chiefs when these teams met earlier this season. Kansas City is also giving up 13.5 yards per reception to wide receives, so even if Boyd isn’t targeted a ton, he should be able to rack up enough yards for this over to hit.
MORE: EXPERT GAME PICKS | NFC PLAYER PROPS
BETTING GUIDES: 49ERS AT EAGLES | BENGALS AT CHIEFS
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