NFL Week 18: Top Player Prop Picks For Saturday's Slate

Week 18 NFL Player Props

NFL Week 18 features two Saturday games with playoff implications: Chiefs at Raiders and Titans at Jaguars. To help you make the best bets this weekend, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite Saturday bets below using key trends and data from the BetQL NFL model.

One key trend to note is that the BetQL NFL model is finishing the regular season strong, going 34-18 (66%) on all NFL picks rated ⭐⭐ and higher last weekend for a total return of $608 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our NFL best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. 

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MORE: SPORTSBOOKS’ BEST PROMOS FOR NFL WEEK 18

Dan Karpuc: Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Jaguars running back Travis Etienne has had a stellar year, racking up 1,108 rushing yards (eighth in NFL) on 5.2 yards per carry (also eighth). Box-score watchers will note that he got just nine carries in last week’s 31-3 blowout win over the Texans, but he still accumulated 108 yards and a touchdown and was a factor in the passing game, catching three balls for 32 yards. This week against the Titans, I assume his workload is going to be gigantic in a must-win situation. He took 17 carries for just 32 yards in a surprisingly inefficient performance against the Titans on Dec. 11, but that was when Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry were both healthy. With Josh Dobbs now under center for Tennessee and Henry banged up, the game script should favor the Jags at home. I expect Etienne to have a huge impact on the ground with 20-plus carry upside.

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Kate Constable: Jaguars WR Christian Kirk Over 57.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

Christian Kirk has only gone over this number once in his last three games, but has surpassed it nine different times this season. He leads the Jaguars WR corps with 1,009 receiving yards on the season, 125 total targets and 63.1 yards per game. The Titans are allowing the most passing attempts of any team in the league on the season and are tied for fifth in yards per attempt. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are top-10 in passing attempts, completions and completion percentage on the season, which is why I’d imagine moving the ball through the air is going to be a huge point of emphasis for Jacksonville in Week 18.

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Brad Pinkerton: Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon anytime TD (+145, Caesars)

This might be one of the best NFL prop values on the board in Week 18. McKinnon's TD price is as short as -150 at BetMGM after scoring eight times in his last five games. What's more, the Raiders can't cover pass-catching backs such as McKinnon, allowing 98 receptions (third most) and a league-high 818 receiving yards to RBs this season, so McKinnon will be heavily targeted by Patrick Mahomes. Grab +145 now because it won't last. This could be a great spot for your first risk-free bet at Caesars, too (see below).

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Lucy Burdge: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Over 319.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Mahomes leads the league in passing yards with 5,048 and has hit this over in nine of his last 11 games, so I see him hitting this over against a weak Raiders D. Even though he had "only" 292 passing yards against the Raiders earlier this season, he also had four passing TDs in that game, so I like him to soar over this passing yards total this time.

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