BetQL Staff NFL Picks For Colts-Broncos TNF

Week 5 NFL Best Bets

Dan Karpuc: Melvin Gordon Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
As I wrote in my Thursday Night Football Player Prop Values article, with Javonte Williams out for the year, Melvin Gordon should see the bulk of the playing time and touches at the running back position. Indy has surrendered 7.25 targets and 43.25 receiving yards per game (7.52 yards per catch) to opposing running backs this season and I expect Gordon to make an impact in the passing game, just like he has in previous years. Keep in mind that in Week 3, he caught five of six targets for 29 yards against the 49ers with Williams healthy. Keep in mind that the Colts rank first in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers (114) and have allowed the second-fewest targets (15.5) to wideouts, so the tough WR matchup could also work in Gordon's favor.

Bet NFL risk-free up to $1,000 at BetMGM right now! Take advantage below!

Brad Pinkerton: Under 43

The under is a cool 7-1 combined between these teams, and that was with healthy playmakers like Colts RB Johnathan Taylor and Broncos RB Javonte Williams on the field. In fact, no Colts game has topped 41 points this season, and only one Broncos game has topped 33 points (last week at Vegas). With Denver scoring just 16.5 points per game and allowing 17.0, and Indy scoring a measly 14.3 (again, with Taylor healthy) and giving up 21.3, get ready for a rock-fight with more big plays on defense than offense.

Matt Horner: Under 43

Matt Ryan is cooked like a Sunday afternoon dinner, and I don’t trust coach Hack on the Denver sideline. Indianapolis has gone under the total in all four of their games so far this season, while Denver is 3-1 to the under this season after going 12-5 to the under last season. Thursday nights have typically been low scoring, too; in four games this season, the under is 3-1 and 14-6 since the start of last year. Both offenses stink and have injuries, and both defenses are just better then their offensive counterparts.

Bet this game FOR FREE at DraftKings right now! Sign up for a new account, make a deposit, bet $5 and they'll give you $200 in free bets! Click the button below and take advantage!

Lucy Burdge: Colts +3.5
The Colts covered a 4.5-point spread against Kansas City in Week 3 and I think they can cover the spread again in this Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup with the Broncos. Some trends in favor of the Colts to cover are that Frank Reich while coaching Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS coming off an upset loss; 17-7 ATS after a division game; and ​​6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or fewer passing yards in the last game. So I think the Colts can handle this spread on this primetime stage against Denver.

Bet NFL risk-free up to $1,250 at Caesars right now! Take advantage below!

MORE: SPORTSBOOKS’ BEST PROMOS FOR NFL WEEK 5

BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets, plus what the model is projecting for every college football game! Start your free trial today!