BetQL Staff NFL Picks For Week 4

Find out which NFL bets we're targeting for Week 4.

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Week 4 NFL Best Bets

Dan Karpuc: Packers -9.5 vs. Patriots
With Mac Jones (ankle) out, the Patriots are going to rely on Brian Hoyer, Bailey Zappe or some combination of the two at the quarterback position. That alone is enough for me to pull the trigger on this bet, but I’m also bullish on the Packers as a whole. After falling to the Vikings by the score of 23-7 in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay have won back-to-back games against the Bears (27-10) and Buccaneers (14-12) to improve to 2-1, and I think they’ll be able to impose their will on both sides of the ball against a Patriots team that simply isn’t very impressive. I wouldn’t be shocked if this Packers defense held the Pats below 10 points; meanwhile, Baltimore’s offense just scored 37 points against this New England defense in Foxborough last week. Give me the Packers in a blowout.

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Lucy Burdge: Lions -4 vs. Seahawks
The Lions are 3-0 ATS for the first time in 30 years, while the Seahawks are 1-2 ATS, so I love the Lions to cover the spread again to keep this streak going. Plus, a trend in their favor is Dan Campbell is 12-3 ATS in games played on turf while coaching Detroit. The Lions are also averaging 31.7 points per game, while the Seahawks are averaging 15.7 per game. With the way the Lions have been putting up big points this season, I think they’ll continue scoring here against the Seahawks and cover this spread.

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Brad Pinkerton: Browns-Falcons Over 47.5

These teams enter Week 4 a combined 6-0 O/U, thanks partly to some noticeable strengths on offense but mostly to suspect defenses. While this is the biggest total either team has seen so far, it's not absurdly high; Falcons-Rams in Week 2 was O/U 46 and they cleared that by 12. In fact, Browns games are going over the totals by an average of 12.8 points per game (Cleveland scoring 28.3 ppg, allowing 24 ppg), while Falcons games are going over by 9.3 (Atlanta scoring 26.7 ppg, allowing 27.0 ppg), so you could argue this total isn't enough of an adjustment by oddsmakers. Actually, that's exactly what I'm arguing. Neither defense will step up in Atlanta on Sunday, so take the over 47.5.

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Matt Horner: Titans +3.5 at Colts

I think this game is more of a toss-up, and if you are giving me three and the hook, I'll take that with either of these teams. Tennessee just happens to be the underdog, so I'll roll with them. Both of these offensive lines have been disappointing so far, which is kind of shocking, and it's impacted both in their abilities to run the ball. Both teams want to run, but neither team has had a ton of success with it. That means it may come down to passing the football, and Matt Ryan is cooked in my opinion; the Colts are dead last in passing offense. Ryan Tannehill actually hasn't been bad so far, and he is by far the better QB right now. I hate the Titans and think they stink, but the Colts may be worse.

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