Dan Karpuc: Bills -5.5 at Dolphins
Buffalo has quickly emerged as the best team in the NFL, beating the defending champion Los Angeles Rams, 31-10, on the road in Week 1 before dismantling the Tennessee Titans, 41-7, at home in Week 2. Under head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills have gone 14-4 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games (which they’ve done) and Josh Allen should be in store for a huge day in Miami. The Dolphins defense has allowed an NFL-worst 9.0 yards per pass attempt, third-worst passer rating (114.4), fifth-worst completion percentage (71.2%) and have only registered two sacks through two games. Allen should tear them up. Miami easily beat the Patriots, 20-7, in Week 1 but needed a miraculous comeback to take down the Ravens, 42-38, in Week 2. I do not trust Tua Tagovailoa and think this Bills defense is going to bring the Fins back down to Earth in this matchup.
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Lucy Burdge: Lions +6 at Vikings
The Lions are coming off a big Week 2 win against the Commanders, so I like them to keep the momentum going and cover the spread against the Vikings here. Plus, while coaching Detroit, Dan Campbell is 11-3 ATS in games played on turf and 9-2 ATS in dome games. The Lions are also putting up big points, with 35.5 average points per game to the Vikings’ 15.0 ppg, so I’m all-in on the Lions to cover the spread this week.
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Brad Pinkerton: Packers-Buccaneers Under 42
Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady will steal the headlines, but the real marquee matchup here will be two elite defenses. The Bucs are allowing just 6.5 points per game, while the Packers are allowing 16.5 after a 27-10 stomping of Chicago. Most importantly, these offenses are both struggling behind injured offensive lines and downgraded receiving corps. As a result, these teams are a combined 0-4 O/U to start the season. This could turn into more of a game of keep-away between these two legendary QBs rather than the offensive slugfests we've come to expect.
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Matt Horner: Bengals -5 at Jets
This is just a ridiculous number if you ask me. It's an overreaction due to Cincy’s poor start and New York’s epic Week 2 comeback. The Jets are dead last in defensive DVOA through the first two games; in other words, they are getting destroyed. They also don't have the sort of pass rush that Dallas and Pittsburgh had against this bad Bengals offensive line. The spread is too small, in my opinion, and this is the quintessential get-right spot for a Bengals team in distress.
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