BetQL Staff NFL Picks For MNF Week 2

Week 1 NFL Best Bets

Lucy Burdge: Bills -10 vs. Titans
I’m all-in on Josh Allen and the Bills in this one up against the Titans. On the stage of Monday Night Football I don’t think the Bills will disappoint. Plus, a trend in their favor to cover the spread is that Sean McDermott is 38-23 ATS in games played on turf while coaching Buffalo. And the Bills have gone 6-2-2 ATS in games favored by double digits since December 2016, so I think they will score big here and cover this spread.

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Dan Karpuc: Titans TE Geoff Swaim Over 11.5 Receiving Yards at Bills
I got absolutely killed by the sportsbooks over the weekend, but two Monday night games give me the ability to make some money back, right? I researched the player prop markets and came across this fantastic opportunity for Geoff Swaim. Who is Geoff Swaim, you may ask? Well, he’s the best blocking tight end on the Titans, as head coach Mike Vrabel said after their Week 1 loss to the Giants. Swaim surprisingly played five more snaps than Austin Hooper in that contest and caught three passes for 19 yards. Hooper finished with just one catch for 6 yards on two targets for comparison. I really like Swaim’s chances to surpass 11.5 yards this week for a couple reasons.

First, he will be on the field for a lot of snaps since the offense revolves around Derrick Henry’s success and Ryan Tannehill’s security. Secondly, this Bills team is likely going to get a lot of pressure on Tannehill, like they did against Matthew Stafford last week. That led to five catches for 39 yards for Rams tight end Tyler Higbee, who is a much better pass-catcher than Swaim, but the short passing game should be there for the taking, especially if this team is playing from behind. Only Kyle Phillips (six catches, 66 yards) had more receptions than Swaim in this Tennessee passing game last week. The BetQL Model is projecting him to catch three passes for 35 yards, so the data clearly supports this as a five-star value. I already locked it in.

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Brad Pinkerton: Dalvin Cook 70+ rushing yards (-122 at FanDuel)

Last week we watched Lions RB DeAndre Swift gash the Eagles D for 144 rushing yards on just 15 carries. Even if you take away a 50-yard run, Swift still averaged 6.7 ypc. That's a weakness that Minnesota will look to exploit Monday night with Dalvin Cook, who racked up 90 yards on 20 carries in Week 1 against Green Bay. You can get Cook at 70+ rushing yards (alt) at -122 on FanDuel, and you could consider him to rush for 80+ yards at +130 if you're feeling frisky.

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MORE: SPORTSBOOKS’ BEST PROMOS FOR NFL WEEK 2

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