BetQL Editors' NFL Picks For Bills-Bengals MNF
Find out which NFL bets we're targeting for Monday Night Football
Week 17 MNF Best Bets
NFL Week 17 wraps up with the Bengals hosting the Bills on Monday Night Football! To help you make the best bets tonight, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite MNF bets below using key trends and the BetQL NFL model's data.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NFL model is hot in Week 17, going 34-18 (66%) on all NFL picks for a total return of $608 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers get more NFL betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every pick.
Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets, including player props, plus what the model is projecting for every NBA, NHL, college football and college basketball game! Start your free trial today!
Dan Karpuc: Bengals +1.5
As I noted in the Best Bets article for this game, the Bengals have some awesome historical trends to point to in this particular matchup. Cincinnati has gone 9-0 ATS against teams that allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% or higher of their passes this season; 10-1 ATS against teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better; and 20-6 ATS against teams that average 235-plus passing yards per game under Zac Taylor. On a seven-game win (and cover) streak, the Bengals are on a roll and are getting hot at exactly the right time. I think the home-field advantage will come into play. Cincy is clearly the side I want to be on.
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Kate Constable: Under 49.5
The narrative coming into this game is that both of these quarterbacks are elite and know how to put points on the board. While that’s certainly true, I think this total is a bit too high. If we look back to the Bengals Week 13 win over the Chiefs, the total in that game was set at 53 and finished under. I think the Bills and Chiefs are pretty comparable in style of play, which makes me believe we might see a lower-scoring game tonight as well. Take the under 49.5.
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Matt Horner: Bills -1
I think we are getting a discount here on the Bills. Cincinnati has been playing with fire the last few weeks, and with the Bengals' injures starting to pile up, I think Buffalo should be a larger favorite. No La’el Collins for the Bengals is a huge blow to an already questionable offensive line. Also, 61% of moneyline bets are on the underdog Bengals, and public 'dogs aren't very exciting to me.
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Brad Pinkerton: BetMGM NFL OGP Insurance Play of the Day
If you're not playing BetMGM's NFL OGP Insurance promo yet, make today the first day! Opt in to the promo and place a four-leg (minimum) NFL one-game parlay; if your OGP loses by one leg, you'll get your stake back in a free bet up to $25 -- and you can take advantage of this promo once every day there's an NFL game!
I'm taking a different approach for our final MNF game of the season. One of my favorite strategies for this OGP promo is building around a plus-money prop (usually a TD) with three relatively easy legs to increase our odds of getting insurance if the "long" leg doesn't hit. BetMGM has a great price on a Josh Allen anytime TD at +190 (as short as +132 at other books), so I'll build around Allen (Joe Mixon TD at +100 is also a good choice, albeit with a lower payout); and if Allen doesn't score, I'll likely get my stake back as a free bet.
Josh Allen Anytime TD
Bills 1H Team Total Over 2.5
Bengals 1H Team Total Over 2.5
Each Team Over 0.5 TD
OGP odds: +190
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MORE MNF: BETTING GUIDE
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