NFL Week 16 features a whopping 11 games on Saturday, Christmas Eve. To help you make the best bets this weekend, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite Saturday bets below using key trends and data from the BetQL NFL model.
One key trend to note is that the BetQL NFL model is on fire, going 38-27 (59%) on all NFL spread picks in the last 30 days for a total return of $820 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our NFL best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game.
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Here is my play for Saturday, using the strategy of going over the lowest game total and under the highest game total (can only lose a maximum of one leg there), and taking the most points on both teams' alt lines (can only lose one leg here too); you can apply this strategy to any football game, including college:
NO-CLE Over 22.5
NO-CLE Under 42.5
Saints +12.5
Browns +7.5
OGP Odds: +130
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Dan Karpuc: Titans -4.5 vs. Texans
Riding Derrick Henry’s fourth-straight utter domination of Houston, the Titans beat the Texans, 17-10, on the road on Oct. 30 and will now welcome them to Tennessee this week. While Houston has challenged some great teams recently, including the Chiefs last week, they’ve been unable to stop Henry. Over the last four meetings between these teams, Henry has rushed for 219, 211, 212 and 250 yards and that should be the strategy yet again in this one. Let’s not overthink this one; give me the Titans to win and earn the cover in front of their home fans.
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Lucy Burdge: Lions -2.5 at Panthers
The Lions are “fur real” and I don’t see anything stopping them this weekend. They have covered the spread in their last seven games and are now 10-4 ATS this season. They’re also 4-2 ATS on the road after covering three straight away from Detroit. Meanwhile, the Panthers are coming off of a home loss to Pittsburgh as 2.5-point favorites. With the momentum the Lions have coming into this game, I like them to cover this spread against the Panthers.
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Kate Constable: Bears +9 vs. Bills
I think this number is too big and that Chicago continues to be a little disrespected in the market. They covered as 8.5-point underdogs last week against a tough Eagles team and Justin Fields has looked great the last few games. This is could also be a trap game for Buffalo. It could be a letdown after a big win over the Dolphins last week, and it could also be a look-ahead spot with a bigger, more important matchup against the Bengals next week on Monday Night Football. The Bills are also coming into this one on a short week, giving Chicago just one more advantage.
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MORE SATURDAY NFL: THIS WEEK’S BETTING GUIDE | PLAYER PROPS
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