NFL Betting Guide: Odds, Trends & Picks For Week 16
NFL betting lines, trends and picks you need to know for Week 16
Bryan Zarpentine - Dec 23, 2022, 11:16am ESTNFL Betting Lines, Odds & Picks For Week 16
The NFL season moves into Week 16, and BetQL is your source for NFL best bets, live NFL public bets, live NFL sharp data, NFL line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NFL articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for this week's top matchups.
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Jaguars at Jets
ATS Record: Jaguars 6-8, Jets 8-6
O/U Record: Jaguars 8-6, Jets 5-9
Look out for the Jaguars, who have won three of their last four games and have pulled within one game of Tennessee in the AFC South. Trevor Lawrence looks like he’s starting to turn the corner, as the Jags have hit the over in four straight games while scoring at least 28 points in their three wins during that stretch. Jacksonville’s only flaw is that the Jags are just 2-5 SU on the road. Meanwhile, the Jets head into Thursday’s game nursing a three-game losing streak that has put them on the outside of the playoff picture. They’ve been competitive in those losses but have still lost four straight games in which the spread was 3.5 points or fewer in either direction. That doesn’t bode well with another tight spread in this game, especially with the Jets going 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS at home this season.
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Bills at Bears
ATS Record: Bills 6-7-1, Bears 5-8-1
O/U Record: Bills 4-10, Bears 9-5
The Bills have clinched a playoff spot and can secure the AFC East crown this week, but they can’t afford to blink now or they risk losing the top seed in the playoffs. They’ve also failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games, eking out a three-point win over Miami last week. The good news is they’ve won five in a row and are 5-2 SU on the road this year. They are also 10-1 ATS when coming off a win by three points or fewer under Sean McDermott. As for the Bears, they’ve lost seven in a row, although they did beat the spread last week to snap a four-game losing streak ATS. Chicago is also a somewhat respectable 3-3-1 ATS at home.
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Saints at Browns
ATS Record: Saints 5-9, Browns 7-7
O/U Record: Saints 6-8, Browns 7-6-1
Both teams kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a win last week, although neither can afford to lose this week’s game. The Browns appear to have a little more momentum with three wins in their last four games. They’ve even covered the spread in both games in which they’ve been favored during that stretch. Of course, with 23 total points over the last two weeks, the Cleveland offense isn’t exactly humming under Deshaun Watson. Meanwhile, the Saints have been a disaster on the road this year, going 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS. Nevertheless, over the last three seasons, the Saints are 11-3 ATS during the second half of the season when facing a team with a losing record, which the Browns still have at 6-8.
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Texans at Titans
ATS Record: Texans 6-7-1, Titans 8-5-1
O/U Record: Texans 6-8, Titans 5-9
The Titans have lost four in a row and watched their lead in the AFC South shrink to just one game. That makes this a good time to face the lowly Texans, whom they beat earlier this season, 17-10. But even with Houston’s nine-game losing streak, things aren’t that straight-forward. The Texans have won in two of their last three trips to Nashville, including last season. Houston has also played the Cowboys and Chiefs tough over the last two weeks, losing those two games by a total of 10 points and beating the spread in both. Clearly, Lovie Smith’s team isn’t giving up on the season and would love to play spoiler for their division rivals.
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Seahawks at Chiefs
ATS Record: Seahawks 6-8, Chiefs 5-9
O/U Record: Seahawks 8-6, Chiefs 7-7
It’ll be nice getting these two former division rivals together, as the Seahawks seek their first win in Kansas City since 1999. With seven wins in their last eight games, Kansas City has clinched the AFC West yet again. But the Chiefs need to keep winning and hope Buffalo falters in order to steal the top seed away from the Bills. Andy Reid’s team has also struggled ATS lately, earning narrow wins over the two worst teams in the AFC in the last two weeks. Since their bye week, the Chiefs are just 2-5 ATS and just 2-4 ATS at home this year. Meanwhile, Seattle’s playoff hopes keep slipping with the Seahawks losing four of their last five games, going 0-5 ATS during that time. However, Pete Carroll is 19-4 ATS during his days in Seattle following back-to-back losses. That trend has already paid off twice this season for the Seahawks. They are also 3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS as road underdogs in 2022.
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Giants at Vikings
ATS Record: Giants 10-4, Vikings 6-7-1
O/U Record: Giants 5-8-1, Vikings 9-5
Just when it looks like the Giants are going to fall out of the playoff race, they come up with a huge road win to get back in the mix. Even more importantly, the Giants are now 8-2 ATS and 6-3-1 ATS as underdogs this year. In fact, they are 5-1 SU as an underdog between +140 and +325, including 4-0 on the road in those games. In other words, they will feel quite comfortable in the underdog role with everyone doubting them. As for the Vikings, they are coming off last week’s historic comeback over the Colts. They’ve already won the NFC North, so some of the pressure is off. However, the Vikings would still like to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The problem is they’ve allowed 31.3 points per game over their last six games, going 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS during that stretch.
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Bengals at Patriots
ATS Record: Bengals 11-3, Patriots 7-6-1
O/U Record: Bengals 5-8-1, Patriots 6-8
It’s hard to give away a game more effectively than the Patriots did last week against the Raiders. Bill Belichick’s team has now lost three of its last four games, putting them on the outside of the playoff picture with three weeks left. With the Pats in must-win mode, this is a bad time to play the Bengals, who have won six in a row and have covered the spread in all four games in which they’ve been favored during that stretch. Cincinnati has now improved to 11-3 ATS, including 11-1 in their last 12 games. For what it’s worth, this is just the third time this season the Patriots are home underdogs. But they’ve lost and failed to beat the spread in their first two games.
Lions at Panthers
ATS Record: Lions 10-4, Panthers 7-7
O/U Record: Lions 9-5, Panthers 6-8
Detroit’s playoff chances are very much real after three straight wins. The Lions have actually won six of their last seven games, going 7-0 ATS during that stretch. Of course, Dan Campbell’s team will be in new territory this week, as this will be the first time the Lions are favored on the road this season. They’ll take on a Carolina team that sits one game behind Tampa in the NFC South despite being 5-9. The Panthers beat the Bucs earlier this season and play them next week, so they have a chance to play for the division lead next week if they can hold serve at home against Detroit. That could happen because Carolina is 3-1 SU as a home underdog in 2022.
Falcons at Ravens
ATS Record: Falcons 8-6, Ravens 5-8-1
O/U Record: Falcons 6-8, Ravens 4-10
After last week’s loss, the Ravens probably can’t afford another loss if they hope to win the AFC North. They remain hopeful that Lamar Jackson can play this week, and they desperately need him after scoring 29 total points over the last three weeks. Even Justin Tucker had a bad game last week. Over their last five games, Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite. But when the Ravens have failed to cover four of six games under John Harbaugh, they’ve gone 28-8 ATS. As for the Falcons, they’ve lost three in a row and blew a golden opportunity last week to pull even with Tampa in the NFC South. Despite losing five of their last six games, the Falcons are very much alive in that abysmal division. Unfortunately, Falcons QB Desmond Ridder didn’t provide much of a spark in his first career start, throwing for under 100 yards. The silver lining is Atlanta is 4-1 ATS as an underdog of five points or more this season.
Commanders at 49ers
ATS Record: Commanders 7-6-1, 49ers 9-5
O/U Record: Commanders 4-9-1, 49ers 6-8
Even with Brock Purdy replacing the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers are rolling with seven straight wins. They also have the third-best point differential in the NFL behind only the Eagles and Bills. On top of that, they’ve covered the spread in five straight games, largely thanks to a defense that’s allowing 11 points per game during that seven-game winning streak. San Francisco is also 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS at home this season. That puts the Commanders in a tough spot, especially after a home loss to the Giants last week. Washington is just barely clinging to the final wild-card spot in the NFC. The good news is the Commanders are 3-2-1 ATS as underdogs, including three SU wins.
Eagles at Cowboys
ATS Record: Eagles 8-6, Cowboys 8-6
O/U Record: Eagles 8-5-1, Eagles 7-6-1
One more win is all the Eagles need to clinch the NFC East and the top seed in the NFC, and they would surely love to get that win on Christmas Eve in Dallas. Of course, the Eagles have lost four in a row and five of their last six trips to AT&T Stadium, so this won’t be easy for them. Plus, Jalen Hurts' status is in doubt, which is why the Eagles will be underdogs for the first time this season.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, locked up a playoff spot last week despite their overtime loss in Jacksonville, snapping a four-game winning streak in the process. After that loss, the Cowboys will feel good about coming home, where they are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS. However, the Cowboys are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. They are also in the midst of a stretch in which they’ve hit the over six times in their last seven games.
Raiders at Steelers
ATS Record: Raiders 7-7, Steelers 7-6-1
O/U Record: Raiders 7-7, Steelers 6-8
With both teams at 6-8, the loser of this game can say goodbye to any slim playoff hopes. Both teams appear to be coming on strong lately, as the Steelers have won four of their last six games whereas the Raiders have won four of their last five games after receiving an unexpected gift from the Patriots last week. Pittsburgh opened as a slight favorite as the home team. However, the Steelers are just 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS at home this season. Of course, the Raiders have been even worse on the road, going 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS away from home, so something’s gotta give.
Packers at Dolphins
ATS Record: Packers 6-8, Dolphins 7-7
O/U Record: Packers 8-6, Dolphins 7-7
The Christmas Day schedule begins with the Packers still clinging to playoff hopes. With back-to-back wins, Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay are still alive. The problem is the Packers face a tough schedule down the stretch. Yet, Green Bay is 3-2 ATS and 2-3 SU as an underdog this year, so all hope is not lost. The Packers have also won four of their last five head-to-head games with the Dolphins. Speaking of the Dolphins, they’ve lost their last three games, albeit all on the road, giving them a more tenuous hold on a playoff spot than a few weeks ago. But don’t forget that Miami is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this season. The Dolphins have been favored at home four times and covered the spread in three of those games.
Broncos at Rams
ATS Record: Broncos 6-8, Rams 4-9-1
O/U Record: Broncos 3-11, Rams 5-9
This game looked good on paper at the start of the season, but now both teams are out of the playoff picture entirely. The Rams have just one win in their last eight games and were held to 17 points or fewer in six of those eight games. That’s not a good omen against a Denver defense that’s held 10 of 14 opponents to 17 points or fewer in regulation. Likewise, the Broncos snapped a five-game losing streak with a win over the Cardinals last week and have won three in a row ATS. Even more shocking, the Broncos have hit the over in back-to-back weeks after starting the year 1-10 O/U. Alas, the Broncos are 1-6 SU away from home this year, and that one win was a neutral-site game in London.
Buccaneers at Cardinals
ATS Record: Buccaneers 3-10-1, Cardinals 6-8
O/U Record: Buccaneers 4-10, Cardinals 8-6
Maybe the Buccaneers don’t want to win the NFC South. It’s hard not to get that impression with three losses in their last four games and four straight losses ATS. Despite all of that, this 6-8 Tampa team holds a one-game lead over the other three members of the NFC South, meaning the Bucs control their own destiny. They are also road favorites this week, although Tampa is 2-3 SU as a road favorite this year.
Somehow, the Cardinals look even worse than the Bucs. They’ve lost four in a row and six of their last seven games. They even allowed Denver’s excuse for an offense to score 24 points against them last week. Arizona is also 1-7 SU but 3-5 ATS at home this season. Colt McCoy suffered a concussion last week, leaving third stringer Trace McSoreley as Arizona's next healthy QB, which isn’t likely to help matters either. But the one silver lining is the Cardinals are 23-14 ATS as an underdog under Kliff Kingsbury.
Chargers at Colts
ATS Record: Chargers 8-5-1, Colts 6-8
O/U Record: Chargers 6-8, Colts 5-9
The Chargers have gotten on a roll recently with three wins in their last four games, putting them in a playoff spot with three losing teams left on their schedule. While they hit the road this week, Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS and 4-3 SU on the road. As for the Colts, they’ve lost four in a row and seven of their last eight games. Indy’s confidence is surely at an all-time low after blowing a 33-0 halftime lead last week. Losing Jonathan Taylor to a season-ending injury could also be a gut punch for the Colts. Plus, the Colts have also lost three in a row at home, although two of those three losses came by a single point. Indy is also 5-3 ATS as an underdog despite all of their problems this week.
MORE SATURDAY NFL: STAFF PICKS | PLAYER PROPS
BetQL subscribers get more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every pick. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets, plus what the model is projecting for every NBA, NHL, college football and college basketball game! Start your free trial today!