BetQL Editors' NFL Picks For Week 11

Week 11 NFL Best Bets

The NFL season rolls into Week 11, and that means another week of tough decisions for bettors. To help you make the best bets this week, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite NFL bets below using key trends and the BetQL NFL model's data.

One trend to note is that the BetQL NFL model is heating up, going 51-32 (62%) on all picks rated ⭐⭐⭐⭐ and higher in the last 30 days for a total return of $570 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. 

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MORE: SEE THIS WEEK’S NFL BETTING GUIDE

Dan Karpuc: Patriots -3 vs. Jets
In Zach Wilson’s three career starts against the Patriots, he completed 53.6% of his passes for 205.3 yards per game with two total touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Jets lost to the Patriots, 22-17, at home earlier this season and New York got outscored 79-19 in Wilson’s two starts against the Pats last season, including a 55-13 embarrassment in the middle of the year. Both teams are coming off a bye week and there are plenty of question marks swirling around the Patriots right now, but this has a dominant home defensive victory written all over it. Bill Belichick has absolutely owned Wilson in his young career (like he does with most young quarterbacks) and this is definitely my favorite bet of the week.

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Brad Pinkerton: Cowboys -120 at Vikings

I think this line would look much different had everything not broken the Vikings' way late against the Bills or had Aaron Rodgers not turned back the clock late against Dallas. But it did and he did, so here we are getting a couple of points of value with the Cowboys as only slight favorites on the road. Let's not forget that Minnesota has one of the league's worst overall defenses, thanks to the No. 29 pass D, while the Cowboys are sporting a top-10 unit, thanks to the No. 3 passing D. Unless Minnesota alters its pass-first approach and commits to the run against a weak Dallas rush D -- unlikely -- I expect a tough game for "Big Kirko" and Co.

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Lucy Burdge: Lions +3 at Giants
The Lions have covered back-to-back games as underdogs (winning both outright), and I think they’ll keep that going against the Giants. They were +3 at Chicago last week and +4 at home against Green Bay, so they have some momentum and confidence heading into this game as three-point 'dogs. One trend over the last two years in their favor is that the team is 6-0 ATS in the second half of the season against teams allowing at least 5.65 yards per play. So I think the Lions can keep it rolling against the Giants and cover this spread.

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Lucy Burdge: Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+123, Caesars)
Jackson and the Ravens are coming off of a bye week ahead of their matchup against the Panthers, and I think the rest will have done this team well as they continue on their three-game winning streak. Jackson has thrown multiple touchdowns in four games this season and the Panthers have allowed two touchdowns per game over their last three games. I really like Jackson to keep that streak going for the Panthers and have another game with multiple touchdowns. 

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MORE: SPORTSBOOKS’ BEST PROMOS FOR NFL WEEK 11

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