NFL Picks & Sleepers
The best NFL betting picks, including sleepers and odds boosts for Week 13
NFL Picks: Week 13
Welcome, fellow NFL bettors! Let's dive into this week's best NFL betting picks, straight from our BetQL editorial staff. We've got a crew of seasoned pros ready to share their top-notch NFL picks to help you score big. Trust us, these picks are the real deal.
Our team lives and breathes NFL, and we've got the experience to prove it. We've sifted through heaps of stats, analyzed player performances and studied matchups, all thanks to BetQL, to bring you NFL picks that are set to beat the odds.
In this fast-paced betting world, being ahead of the game is everything. That's why our NFL betting picks are tailored to give you the upper hand, whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out.
Join us as we offer savvy betting tips and insider knowledge that will seriously up your betting game. With our NFL picks, you're not just placing bets – you're making strategic moves, backed by BetQL's team of experts.
We will dish out our NFL picks for every Sunday right here, so stay tuned all season for winning picks that are bound to make your NFL betting experience a smashing success. Don't miss out on the chance to level-up your wagering game with our expert selections. Let's do this!
And, as always, BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NFL betting odds, best bets from our NFL model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and much more to help you cash more bets. BetQL subscribers can see all of this week's best bets with game projections, player props, betting trends and more! Sign up for a FREE TRIAL today!
MORE: NFL PLAYER PROPS | NFL PARLAYS
NFL Picks: Week 13
Welcome, fellow NFL bettors! Let's dive into this week's best NFL betting picks, straight from our BetQL editorial staff. We've got a crew of seasoned pros ready to share their top-notch NFL picks to help you score big. Trust us, these picks are the real deal.
Our team lives and breathes NFL, and we've got the experience to prove it. We've sifted through heaps of stats, analyzed player performances and studied matchups, all thanks to BetQL, to bring you NFL picks that are set to beat the odds.
In this fast-paced betting world, being ahead of the game is everything. That's why our NFL betting picks are tailored to give you the upper hand, whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out.
Join us as we offer savvy betting tips and insider knowledge that will seriously up your betting game. With our NFL picks, you're not just placing bets – you're making strategic moves, backed by BetQL's team of experts.
We will dish out our NFL picks for every Sunday right here, so stay tuned all season for winning picks that are bound to make your NFL betting experience a smashing success. Don't miss out on the chance to level-up your wagering game with our expert selections. Let's do this!
And, as always, BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NFL betting odds, best bets from our NFL model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and much more to help you cash more bets. BetQL subscribers can see all of this week's best bets with game projections, player props, betting trends and more! Sign up for a FREE TRIAL today!
MORE: NFL PLAYER PROPS | NFL PARLAYS
Panthers at Bucs Pick
Dan Karpuc: Buccaneers -6 (-110, BetMGM)
Tampa Bay (4-7 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) is the home favorite against Carolina (1-10 SU, 1-7-2 ATS), and the Panthers have only covered one time all season. Carolina has gone 0-6 SU (0-5-1 ATS) on the road, while the Bucs have gone 2-1 SU (2-1 ATS) as a home favorite. This is going to be a gross one to watch (don’t do it), but I think there’s a clear edge in backing Tampa Bay. This is the first of two meetings between these two teams and the Bucs are now in must-win mode if they want to make a late playoff push.
New BetMGM customers can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet loses PLUS a free one-year BetQL subscription using the welcome offer below!
Dolphins at Commanders Pick
Kate Constable: Dolphins -9.5 (-110, DraftKings)
The Dolphins have had no issue getting past bad teams and this weekend won’t be any different. Washington has lost three straight and five of its last six, including a 35-point loss to the Cowboys last weekend. It’s defense gave up 45 points to Dallas, but what’s even more concerning is the 31 points it allowed to the GIANTS in Week 11. This line is only going to move in favor of Miami, so grab it now while it’s under a key number.
Tail this pick at DraftKings and get $150 in bonus bets instantly with the welcome offer below!
49ers at Eagles Pick
Matt Horner: 49ers ML (-132, FanDuel)
The only team that has been more lucky than Philly this season is Pittsburgh, but the Eagles aren't far behind. They just managed to defeat the Buffalo Bills this past weekend at home, but once again were outplayed in doing so. Buffalo gained 505 yards of offense on the day, while Philly managed 378. Same thing happened the previous week when they beat Kansas City but were outgained 336 to 238. In fact, they have been outgained in over half of their games this season and continue to get extremely fortunate in turnover luck and red-zone stops. Regression is coming, and San Francisco can deliver some revenge for last season's NFC championship loss at Philly.
Best Sportsbook Promotions & Plays
Check out this week's best sportsbook promotions, including odds boosts and more!
CAESARS: 33% NFL Parlay Profit Boost!
The Emperor is offering a 33% NFL parlay profit boost for this week's games! Opt-in and get the 33% profit boost token to use on a four-leg parlay (minumum +400 odds) to use on any NFL games from Thursday through Sunday. Even better, new customers can get up to $1,000 back in bonus bets if their first bet loses using the welcome offer below!
FANDUEL: "Sunday Funday" Profit Boost Pack!
FanDuel is dropping a ton of promos for Sunday's Week 5 action! Here's what's in the "Sunday Funday" profit boost pack:
- 50% Parlay/SGP Profit Boost Token for 1 p.m. ET NFL games
- 50% Parlay/SGP Profit Boost Token for 4:25 p.m. ET NFL games
- 50% Parlay/SGP Profit Boost Token for SNF
Even better, new customers can also bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly using the welcome offer below!
BETRIVERS: NFL Parlay Insurance & Primetime First TD Scorer Promo!
BetRivers is offering two great NFL promos every week of the season! On Sundays, place a four-leg NFL parlay and get your stake back (up to $25) if one leg loses!
BetRivers is also offering all customers a first TD scorer promo, but check your offer details to see which one you have: Place a cash wager of at least $10 on any player to score the first touchdown on Thursday, Sunday or Monday Night Football and get a 25% profit boost OR place a cash wager of at least $25 on any player to score the first touchdown on Thursday, Sunday or Monday Night Football and get your stake back as a bonus bet if that player doesn't score first but does score later in the game. You can play either promo once for each primetime game!
Even better, new customers can get up to $500 back in bonus bets if their first wager loses by using the welcome offer below!
BETMGM: "8-Bit Barry" Game
Check out BetMGM's free to play game where you can win randomized prizes such as parlay profit boosts, bet insurance tokens and even a $20 bonus bet each week! Even better, new BetMGM customers can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet loses using the welcome offer below!
MORE: NFL PLAYER PROPS
More About Our NFL Betting Picks
How BetQL's NFL Model Works
Our NFL model makes picks by utilizing advanced statistical algorithms and historical data to generate predictions. It analyzes a wide range of factors, including team and player statistics, performance trends, injuries, weather conditions, and other relevant variables. Here's an overview of how our NFL models makes picks:
Data Collection: NFL models gather and process large amounts of data, including historical game results, player performance metrics, team statistics, and situational data. This data is sourced from various reliable and comprehensive databases.
Feature Selection: Models identify relevant features or variables that have a significant impact on game outcomes. These features can include factors like team offensive and defensive rankings, player statistics, recent performance trends, home-field advantage, injuries, and more.
Model Training: The model is trained using historical data, where it learns the relationships between the selected features and the corresponding game outcomes. Different machine learning algorithms, such as regression models, decision trees, or neural networks, are employed to train the model.
Statistical Analysis: The trained model performs statistical analysis on the collected data, identifying patterns, correlations, and trends that can influence game results. It calculates probabilities and estimates the likelihood of various outcomes based on the input features.
Predictions and Probabilities: Once the model is trained and the statistical analysis is complete, it generates predictions for upcoming games. These predictions typically include probabilities for each team's likelihood of winning, point spreads, and totals.
Evaluation and Refinement: Models are continually evaluated and refined based on their performance and accuracy. Historical data is used to assess the model's predictive capabilities, allowing for adjustments and improvements to enhance its accuracy over time.
Integration with Betting Lines: NFL models incorporate betting lines and odds provided by sportsbooks into their predictions. By comparing the model's predictions with the available betting lines, the models can identify potential value bets where the predicted outcome differs significantly from the odds offered by bookmakers. Five stars mean the most value, one star means little/no value.
It's important to note that while NFL models are powerful tools that leverage statistical analysis, they are not infallible. Unforeseen events, such as injuries, weather conditions, or unexpected performance fluctuations, can still impact game outcomes. Therefore, it's crucial to use models as one resource among others, incorporating your own analysis and knowledge of the game when making betting decisions.
How To Bet On The NFL
Making NFL picks involves a combination of research, analysis, and a bit of intuition. Here's a step-by-step guide on how to make NFL picks:
Gather Information: Stay updated on the latest NFL news, injury reports, and team updates. Follow reputable sports news sources, team websites, and official social media accounts to stay informed about player injuries, roster changes, and any other factors that may impact the game.
Analyze Team and Player Statistics: Dive into team and player statistics to understand their strengths, weaknesses, and trends. Look at factors like offensive and defensive rankings, scoring averages, turnover differentials, and performance in different weather conditions or against specific opponents. Pay attention to recent performance trends and consider the context of each team's schedule.
Evaluate Matchups: Assess the matchups between teams, considering factors like offensive styles, defensive strengths, and how the teams have performed against similar opponents. Analyze head-to-head records, recent form, and any historical trends that may influence the outcome.
Consider Home Field Advantage and Travel Factors: Take into account the impact of home field advantage and travel distances. Some teams perform better at home, while others struggle on the road. Consider the distances traveled and the potential effects of jet lag or short weeks due to travel.
Factor in Coaching and Game Plans: Coaches play a significant role in game strategy and decision-making. Research the coaching staff and their tendencies, including play-calling, use of timeouts, and effectiveness in making adjustments during the game. A well-prepared and strategic team can have a significant advantage.
Look for Value in Betting Lines: Compare the betting lines and odds across different sportsbooks to identify potential value. Look for discrepancies or lines that appear misaligned with your own analysis. This can help you identify opportunities where the potential payout outweighs the risk.
Trust Data and Models: Utilize data-driven platforms and predictive models like BetQL to enhance your decision-making process. These tools leverage complex algorithms and historical data to generate insights and predictions that can assist you in making more informed picks.
Consider Intangibles: Keep in mind intangible factors like team motivation, momentum, and rivalry games. These intangibles can have an impact on team performance and the outcome of the game.
Practice Bankroll Management: Implement proper bankroll management techniques to ensure responsible betting. Set a budget for your bets and avoid chasing losses by wagering more than you can afford.
Trust Your Instincts: While data and analysis are crucial, sometimes your instincts and knowledge of the game can provide valuable insights. Trust your gut when it aligns with your research and analysis.
Remember, making NFL picks is not an exact science, and outcomes can be unpredictable. It's important to approach it with a level-headed mindset, manage your expectations, and enjoy the process of analyzing and predicting the games.
