NFL Betting Picks For Super Bowl 58

NFL Betting Picks: Super Bowl 58

Welcome, fellow NFL bettors! Let's dive into this week's best NFL betting picks, straight from our BetQL editorial staff. We've got a crew of seasoned pros ready to share their top-notch NFL picks to help you score big. Trust us, these picks are the real deal.

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Super Bowl Betting Picks: Chiefs vs. 49ers

Dan Karpuc: Chiefs ML (+106, FanDuel)

I was on the Chiefs to repeat as champions before the season started and I’m going to stick with my pick. As I wrote before the season, “I don’t care about who his weapons are, I don’t care about free agents, I don’t care about the NFL Draft. I just care about the guy under center. As long as he and Andy Reid are together, I’m going to trust that they’ll be in the Big Game.”

Mahomes has gone 9-3 SU as an underdog in his career, including 3-0 as a playoff underdog. To highlight how insane that is, those three wins are as many playoff underdog wins as Dan Marino, Steve Young, Brett Favre and Jim Kelly combined (those guys went 3-25 SU as playoff dogs).

Mahomes’ outright record as an underdog is the best in the sport (playoffs included) over the last 15-plus seasons. I’ve been wildly impressed with K.C.’s defense during this run and there’s no way I’m fading Mahomes in this matchup and situation. The Niners may be the more talented squad, but it’s clear that the Mahomes-Reid pairing has Brady-Belichick vibes. Fade at your own risk.

Kate Constable: Chiefs ML (+106, FanDuel)

The Chiefs have it all. The best quarterback to walk the planet. A dominant offensive line. A defense that just shut down the league’s best offense. And a secondary that’s playing the best we’ve seen all season. The 49ers just gave up 442 yards to the Lions, including 280 in the first half in which Detroit imposed its will on San Fran. If it wasn’t for the Lions shooting themselves in the foot in the second half, we probably wouldn’t be talking about the Niners right now.

Kansas City is experienced enough to not allow a team back in the game like Detroit did. And if Mahomes gets 28 first downs like Jared Goff did, we’ll be looking at a very lopsided affair. While San Fran’s second-half comeback was impressive, it showed way too many areas of vulnerability on the defensive side of the ball during the first 30 minutes for me to feel comfortable backing this team.

My heart truly does want the Niners to win, but my head can’t get past Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and the chemistry and experience they possess that will lead them to back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

Brad Pinkerton: Chiefs ML (+106, FanDuel)

Mahomes, Reid and the Chiefs are getting plus-money for the third straight playoff game? Sign me up (again). We're basically getting the chance to go back in time and bet on the equivalent of Brady & Belichick at the rise of the Patriots Dynasty, and I'm going to continue to capitalize as the Chiefs establish the next great NFL dynasty. The 49ers are a formidable opponent, but I'm banking on the Chiefs' Big Game experience to put them over the top in Las Vegas.

Lucy Burdge: Chiefs +1.5 (-110, BetMGM)

I got a very strong, “The Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl,” vibe on Sunday during their win over the Ravens and I think this is their year. Especially with the Chiefs as the underdog here. Because you do not want to mess with an underdog Patrick Mahomes. He uses that as his motivation to destroy his opponents, along with his ability to scramble and avoid sacks. So I see the Chiefs ultimately coming away with another Super Bowl win here. 

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More About Our NFL Betting Picks

How BetQL's NFL Model Works

Our NFL model makes picks by utilizing advanced statistical algorithms and historical data to generate predictions. It analyzes a wide range of factors, including team and player statistics, performance trends, injuries, weather conditions, and other relevant variables. Here's an overview of how our NFL models makes picks:

Data Collection: NFL models gather and process large amounts of data, including historical game results, player performance metrics, team statistics, and situational data. This data is sourced from various reliable and comprehensive databases.

Feature Selection: Models identify relevant features or variables that have a significant impact on game outcomes. These features can include factors like team offensive and defensive rankings, player statistics, recent performance trends, home-field advantage, injuries, and more.

Model Training: The model is trained using historical data, where it learns the relationships between the selected features and the corresponding game outcomes. Different machine learning algorithms, such as regression models, decision trees, or neural networks, are employed to train the model.

Statistical Analysis: The trained model performs statistical analysis on the collected data, identifying patterns, correlations, and trends that can influence game results. It calculates probabilities and estimates the likelihood of various outcomes based on the input features.

Predictions and Probabilities: Once the model is trained and the statistical analysis is complete, it generates predictions for upcoming games. These predictions typically include probabilities for each team's likelihood of winning, point spreads, and totals.

Evaluation and Refinement: Models are continually evaluated and refined based on their performance and accuracy. Historical data is used to assess the model's predictive capabilities, allowing for adjustments and improvements to enhance its accuracy over time.

Integration with Betting Lines: NFL models incorporate betting lines and odds provided by sportsbooks into their predictions. By comparing the model's predictions with the available betting lines, the models can identify potential value bets where the predicted outcome differs significantly from the odds offered by bookmakers. Five stars mean the most value, one star means little/no value.

It's important to note that while NFL models are powerful tools that leverage statistical analysis, they are not infallible. Unforeseen events, such as injuries, weather conditions, or unexpected performance fluctuations, can still impact game outcomes. Therefore, it's crucial to use models as one resource among others, incorporating your own analysis and knowledge of the game when making betting decisions.

How To Bet On The NFL

Making NFL picks involves a combination of research, analysis, and a bit of intuition. Here's a step-by-step guide on how to make NFL picks:

Gather Information: Stay updated on the latest NFL news, injury reports, and team updates. Follow reputable sports news sources, team websites, and official social media accounts to stay informed about player injuries, roster changes, and any other factors that may impact the game.

Analyze Team and Player Statistics: Dive into team and player statistics to understand their strengths, weaknesses, and trends. Look at factors like offensive and defensive rankings, scoring averages, turnover differentials, and performance in different weather conditions or against specific opponents. Pay attention to recent performance trends and consider the context of each team's schedule.

Evaluate Matchups: Assess the matchups between teams, considering factors like offensive styles, defensive strengths, and how the teams have performed against similar opponents. Analyze head-to-head records, recent form, and any historical trends that may influence the outcome.

Consider Home Field Advantage and Travel Factors: Take into account the impact of home field advantage and travel distances. Some teams perform better at home, while others struggle on the road. Consider the distances traveled and the potential effects of jet lag or short weeks due to travel.

Factor in Coaching and Game Plans: Coaches play a significant role in game strategy and decision-making. Research the coaching staff and their tendencies, including play-calling, use of timeouts, and effectiveness in making adjustments during the game. A well-prepared and strategic team can have a significant advantage.

Look for Value in Betting Lines: Compare the betting lines and odds across different sportsbooks to identify potential value. Look for discrepancies or lines that appear misaligned with your own analysis. This can help you identify opportunities where the potential payout outweighs the risk.

Trust Data and Models: Utilize data-driven platforms and predictive models like BetQL to enhance your decision-making process. These tools leverage complex algorithms and historical data to generate insights and predictions that can assist you in making more informed picks.

Consider Intangibles: Keep in mind intangible factors like team motivation, momentum, and rivalry games. These intangibles can have an impact on team performance and the outcome of the game.

Practice Bankroll Management: Implement proper bankroll management techniques to ensure responsible betting. Set a budget for your bets and avoid chasing losses by wagering more than you can afford.

Trust Your Instincts: While data and analysis are crucial, sometimes your instincts and knowledge of the game can provide valuable insights. Trust your gut when it aligns with your research and analysis.

Remember, making NFL picks is not an exact science, and outcomes can be unpredictable. It's important to approach it with a level-headed mindset, manage your expectations, and enjoy the process of analyzing and predicting the games.