Week 6 MNF Picks For Cowboys at Chargers

Cowboys at Chargers: Week 6 Betting Preview

We have a heck of a matchup on the Week 6 edition of Monday Night Football as the Dallas Cowboys (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U) travel to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U). 

After crushing both New York teams to start the season - first the Giants 40-0 on Sunday Night Football in Week 1 and then the Jets 30-10 in Week 2 - the Cowboys suffered a terrible road loss to the Cardinals in Week 3. Dallas responded mightily with a 38-3 victory over the Patriots in Week 4, but then got demolished and embarrassed by the 49ers last week by the score of 42-10. As you can see, this has already been an up-and-down season for “America’s Team”. 

In typical fashion, all four Chargers games could have gone either way. They lost to the Dolphins 36-34 at home in Week 1 and then to the Titans 27-24 on the road in Week 2. Then, they earned their first win of the year in Week 3 on the road against the Vikings (28-24) before earning a Week 4 victory against the Raiders at home (24-17). Coming off of a bye week, star running back Austin Ekeler will make his long-awaited return after he suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 1.

The inconsistency that has plagued both of these teams in previous seasons has bled over to this one, which makes it very difficult to get an organic lean on this matchup. However, the BetQL model is immune from outside noise and crunches numbers from dozens of sources in its proprietary algorithm. We’ve gone 32-21 ATS 1H (60.4%, +$815) when Dak Prescott has started and 26-19 O/U 1H (57.8%, +$495) when Justin Herbert has started and have hit 60% of our overall four and five-star value picks this season! CLICK HERE to grab a free trial and unlock our full game page for this matchup, including game picks, player prop picks, player cards, live public, sharp and line movement data and much more!

Cowboys at Chargers: Live Week 6 MNF Odds

Cowboys at Chargers: Expert Picks

Dan Karpuc: Cowboys -1.5 (-110, FanDuel)

This feels gross, but I’m a sucker for trends. Under Mike McCarthy, Dallas has gone 7-0 ATS against teams that allow 260-plus passing yards per game to their opponents. It just so happens that this Chargers defense has allowed an NFL-worst 299.8 passing yards per game, setting up Dak Prescott up for a rebound performance after he delivered a dud last week. Things will be much tougher for Justin Herbert and LA’s offense since the Cowboys have allowed just 168.6 passing yards per contest, 2nd-best in the NFL. I expect this game to stay close throughout, but ultimately I can’t fade an undefeated trend, like I noted above.

Kate Constable: Chargers ML (+108, FanDuel) 

The Chargers are getting back three of arguably their top five players this week with Austin Ekeler, Joey Bosa and Derwin James returning. That’s going to be a massive boost for a team that is healthy and rested coming off of a bye week. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are coming off a beatdown by the 49ers. You could make the argument that they’re going to be fired up and looking to avenge that loss, but going up against their former offensive coordinator makes that a bit trickier. Kellen Moore knows Dallas’ defense better than anyone outside of the Cowboys’ organization and will come with a game plan to attack its weaknesses. The wrong team is favored in this game, so I’ll grab the Chargers for plus-money at FanDuel!

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Lucy Burdge: Chargers +1.5 (-110, BetMGM)

The Chargers are 2-2 ATS this season after covering their last two spreads. And they are averaging 27.5 points scored per game, while the Cowboys are averaging 26.8 points scored per game. Plus, Brandon Staley is 10-3 ATS as an underdog while coaching Los Angeles. So I like the Chargers to cover this spread as the home underdog on Monday Night Football.

Matt Horner: Under 51 (-110, DraftKings)

Primetime unders continue to be money this NFL season, and have been profitable for quite some time now, going 105-80-2 (57%) over the last 18 years. There is more reason to believe that we could see it happen again tonight. While the Chargers are averaging 27.5 points per game, good for seventh in the league, they have faced the fourth-easiest slate in terms of their opponent’s defensive DVOA. Dallas ranks eighth in defensive DVOA in the NFL, and should be much more of a challenge for L.A. On the other side, the Cowboys have been somewhat painful to watch on offense. They are ranked 19th in offensive DVOA, a spot behind Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Dak Prescott has struggled on the road in his career, even if this will be like a home game for them. The Chargers rank 15th in DVOA vs. the pass, but are a woeful 28th vs. the run. I’m inclined to think that both teams will be running more than usual here, which drains that clock and helps the under.

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Monday Night Football Player Prop Targets

Dan Karpuc: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-125, PointsBet)

This is the best-possible matchup for the Cowboys’ passing offense since the Chargers defense has allowed an NFL-worst 299.8 passing yards per game. Utilizing BetQL’s Player Card for Lamb (click on any player’s name in the Player Prop section on BetQL web platform), I can easily see that he posted 77 and then 143 yards in his first two games, but then 53, 36 and 49 in his last three. Not only that, but outside of his 11-reception performance in Week 2, he’s failed to catch more than four passes in a game this season. However, this is the perfect bounce-back spot for Lamb and Prescott. If it doesn’t work this week, Lamb is someone who could be on the move in a trade before the deadline, so there’s a lot on the line. Also, I got this at 65.5 at PointsBet, but it’s up to 71.5 at other books! Take advantage now!

Matt Horner: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler o33.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

It is my thinking that the running backs are going to play a larger role in this game, so I’m going to back Ekeler to go over his receiving yards. Dallas has a good defense, ranked eighth DVOA, and they also have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. PFF has them ranked second in pass-rushing grade, which means they should get good pressure on Justin Herbert. The Cowboys also have a good secondary, even with the injury to Trevon Diggs. Ekeler is a weapon in the passing attack, and with him back, I see L.A. using the screen and rushing attack to slow down this pass rush.

Brad Pinkerton: Ekeler & Pollard 100+ rushing yards combined (+100, DraftKings)

Echoing what Matt said above, I also think the RBs will be key to this game for both offenses. Coincidentally, DraftKings is offering a "MNF Super Boost" for Ekeler and Pollard to combine for 100+ rushing yards boosted to +100, which is incredible value. Pollard's O/U on rush yards is set at 69.5, while Ekeler's is lower at 50.5 in his first game back from injury, but that's still 120 combined, well over what we need here. And with Dallas allowing 77.8 rushing yards per game to RBs and the Chargers allowing 92.5, we should have no trouble getting 100+ from these two combined. Hammer this one at DK!

Kate Constable: Cowboys RB Tony Pollard o68.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetMGM)

Tony Pollard went over this number in each of the first three weeks of the season and I like him to do it again tonight against a Chargers defense that is terrible at stopping the run. L.A. is giving up the 12th-most rushing yards to running backs and already allowed Alexander Mattison to rush for 93 yards, Derrick Henry to rush for 80 yards and Josh Jacobs to rush for 58 yards. The Chargers are also giving up the fourth-highest success rate to opposing running backs and have had a negative defender grade on 75.8% of plays, the highest number in the league, according to PFF. That’s a great sign for Pollard, who is ninth in the league in carries and 10th in rushing yards. Look for him to have a big night.

Lucy Burdge: Chargers WR Keenan Allen ATTD (+100, BetMGM)

Keenan Allen had a touchdown in the Chargers’ last game against the Raiders and he had two against the Titans in Week 2. Through his first four games of this season, Allen has 35 catches for 434 yards with those three touchdowns. And I think he can continue that here and score a touchdown against the Cowboys.

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2023 Monday Night Football Schedule

The 2023 NFL schedule is out which means that we have the complete Monday Night Football schedule. Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Lisa Salters, and John Parry will reunite for another season of Monday Night Football, serving as the frontliners for ESPN. This marks their second consecutive year working together as a team. Notably, Buck and Aikman's tenure at ESPN also celebrates a remarkable milestone as they enter their 22nd consecutive year in the broadcasting booth together. Salters, on the other hand, embarks on her impressive 12th season as a member of the MNF crew, holding the record for the most seasons served by a sideline reporter in the franchise's history spanning over 50 years. Additionally, John Parry will make his return for the fourth consecutive season, providing expert analysis as a former official and offering valuable insights into live referee decisions. Take a look at the full schedule below:

Best Monday Night Football Matchups In 2023

Week 1 brings us the highly anticipated AFC East rivalry as the Bills take on the Jets, with the debut of Aaron Rodgers in a Jets uniform adding extra excitement to the matchup.

In Week 2, the Saints visit the Panthers for Bryce Young's home debut as the No. 1 pick, making it a noteworthy game for fans eager to see the young talent in action. This game also serves as the first of the doubleheader.

The second game of the Week 2 doubleheader features the Browns against the Steelers, pitting these gritty NFC North rivals against each other in what promises to be a hard-fought battle.

Week 6 showcases an exciting clash between the Cowboys and the Chargers. Dak Prescott leads the Cowboys against Justin Herbert and the Chargers, creating a compelling quarterback matchup.

Week 9 presents another intriguing showdown between the Jets and the Chargers. Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert go head-to-head in a thrilling contest that fans won't want to miss.

In Week 11, we have a Super Bowl rematch at Arrowhead Stadium as the Chiefs face off against the Eagles. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs go up against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in a game that carries significant historical weight.

Week 13 brings together the Bengals and the Jaguars, with Joe Burrow leading the Bengals against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. It's an exciting matchup between two talented young quarterbacks.

Week 15 delivers an enticing clash between the Chiefs and the Patriots. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs face off against Bill Belichick's Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the matchup.

Week 16 presents a thrilling game between the Ravens and the 49ers. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens take on the 49ers, who reached the NFC Championship Game last year, making it a game to watch for football enthusiasts.

Week 17 features an exciting matchup between the Lions and the Cowboys. Dak Prescott and the high-powered Cowboys offense square off against the Lions, and this game could have playoff implications, adding to the excitement surrounding the contest.

How To Bet Monday Night Football

Research the teams: Before placing any Monday Night Football bets, it's crucial to gather comprehensive information about the teams in question. Take into account their recent performances, key players, injury reports, head-to-head records, and any other pertinent factors that may impact the game's outcome.

Understand the odds: Familiarize yourself with the intricacies of NFL betting odds. These odds reflect the likelihood of specific outcomes and determine potential payouts. Gain knowledge about various types of bets, including point spreads, moneylines, and over/unders, and assess which type aligns best with your betting strategy.

Establish a budget: Setting a well-defined budget for your Monday Night Football betting endeavors is of utmost importance. It is imperative to only wager an amount that you can afford to lose, avoiding the temptation to chase losses by increasing your bets. Responsible bankroll management is the key to ensuring a sustainable and enjoyable betting experience.

Compare odds from different sources: Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different Monday Night Football odds for the same game. Take the time to compare odds from multiple bookmakers to ensure you obtain the greatest value for your bets. Even minor variations in odds can significantly impact your overall profitability over time.

Consider additional influencing factors: While statistics and trends hold significance, it is essential to consider other factors that may influence the outcome of a Monday Night Football game. These factors could include weather conditions, home-field advantage, coaching strategies, and team motivation.

Exercise self-control: Emotions often cloud judgment, leading to impulsive and irrational betting decisions. Approach sports betting with a calm and logical mindset. Avoid placing bets solely based on loyalty towards your favorite Monday Night Football team, as it may bias your judgment.

Bear in mind that Monday Night Football betting carries inherent risks, and no outcomes are guaranteed. Gamble responsibly, be mindful of your betting habits, and enjoy the game within your means.

Be sure to consult BetQL’s NFL Model before placing any Monday Night Football bets. Also see live public betting, sharp betting and line movement data, player prop projections, trending bets and more!

Monday Night Football Betting Strategy

When it comes to Monday night NFL games, here are some strategies to consider for your betting:

Conduct thorough research on the teams: Delve into the recent performances of the teams, examining their records, statistics, and noteworthy player injuries. Assess their offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as their track record in prime-time matchups.

Account for the shortened week: Monday night games typically follow a shorter week of preparation, which can impact team performance. Take note of how teams have historically fared under these circumstances, as some may struggle due to limited rest and recovery time.

Evaluate home-field advantage: Consider the influence of home-field advantage on the teams involved. Certain teams tend to excel in their home stadiums, so factor this into your predictions.

Monitor weather conditions: Keep a close eye on the weather forecast for the game. Extreme conditions like heavy rain or strong winds can significantly impact the outcome and scoring potential. Adjust your betting strategy accordingly.

Track line movements and public betting: Stay attentive to line movements and public betting trends. These can provide valuable insights into the prevailing sentiments among bettors and whether there might be value in adopting a contrarian approach.

Explore prop bets and alternative markets: Look beyond conventional spread and over/under bets. Prop bets, player performance bets, and alternative markets can present interesting opportunities, particularly if you possess comprehensive knowledge about specific players or matchups.

Exercise prudent bankroll management: Set a budget for your wagers and resist the urge to chase losses. It's crucial to bet responsibly and never wager more than you can comfortably afford to lose. Develop a staking plan and adhere to it, adjusting your bet sizes based on your confidence in each selection.

Remember, sports betting always carries inherent risks, and there are no foolproof strategies for guaranteed success. These tips serve as a framework to make informed decisions, but ultimately, outcomes can be unpredictable. Approach your wagers with caution and always engage in responsible gambling practices.