NFL Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks For Week 6
NFL betting odds, trends and picks you need to know for Week 6
Bryan Zarpentine - Oct 11, 2022, 12:47pm EDT
The NFL season moves into Week 6, and BetQL is your source for NFL best bets, live NFL public bets, live NFL sharp data, NFL line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NFL articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for this week's top matchups.
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Commanders at Bears
ATS Record: Commanders 1-4, Bears 2-2-1
O/U Record: Commanders 2-3, Bears 2-3
The Bears might be coming off back-to-back losses, but they’ve won both of their home games this year. Of course, they still have a losing record at 2-3 SU and Ron Rivera is 29-15 SU in his career when facing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. Rivera’s problem is that this year’s Washington team is downright awful. The Commanders have averaged 11.7 points over their last three games, resulting in three consecutive unders and now four straight losses. Also, both of Washington’s home games this year have ended in losses by more than a touchdown.
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49ers at Falcons
ATS Record: 49ers 3-2, Falcons 5-0
O/U Record: 49ers 1-4, Falcons 3-2
Even in a loss to the Bucs last week, the oddsmakers continue to underestimate the Falcons, who are 5-0 against the spread. Atlanta might have had a chance to win its third game in a row if not for a dreadful roughing-the-passer penalty, so the Falcons are not to be overlooked. They’ve been underdogs in every game, but are 2-3 with those three losses coming by a combined 11 points. That being said, the 49ers may have found something with Jimmy Garoppolo (again). They’ve averaged 6.7 yards per play in back-to-back weeks with Kyle Shanahan going 15-4 ATS after his team gained at least 6.0 yards per play in two consecutive games and 8-1 ATS when gaining over 6.5 yards per play in two consecutive games.
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Patriots at Browns
ATS Record: Patriots 2-2-1, Browns 2-3
O/U Record: Patriots 2-3, Browns 4-1
The all-time series between these franchises is tied, 13-13, although the Patriots have won 10 of the last 12 meetings. Obviously, Tom Brady was a big part of that, but it was Mac Jones with three touchdown passes in last year’s 45-7 thumping of the Browns in Foxboro. More recently, the Browns have conceded at least 30 points in two of their three home games this year. Meanwhile, the Patriots kept a shutout over Detroit last week and have looked good defensively against some of the weaker offensive teams in the league. To their credit, the Browns are not weak offensively, averaging 26.6 points per game despite their losing record.
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Jets at Packers
ATS Record: Jets 3-2, Packers 2-3
O/U Record: Jets 3-2, Packers 2-3
Against all odds, these teams enter this game with the same record. The Packers have also lost back-to-back games against the spread, both in games they were favored in by more than a touchdown. The Jets, meanwhile, have been underdogs in every game and won three times. Yet, everything points to Green Bay getting back on track. The Packers are 26-4 SU at home under Matt LaFleur and 12-1 in October under him. They are also 10-1 ATS when coming off a loss during LaFleur’s tenure.
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Jaguars at Colts
ATS Record: Jaguars 2-3, Colts 2-3
O/U Record: Jaguars 3-2, Colts 0-5
Just a few weeks after their embarrassing, 24-0 loss to the Jaguars, the Colts have a chance to redeem themselves. Of course, they’re going to have to find a way to score points, failing to score a touchdown last week despite getting the win. On the other hand, they’ve yet to concede more than 24 points in a game this year, which explains why all five of Indy’s games have hit the under. The Colts have also won their last four home games against Jacksonville.
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Vikings at Dolphins
ATS Record: Vikings 1-4, Dolphins 3-2
O/U Record: Vikings 3-2, Dolphins 2-3
Obviously, Miami’s quarterback situation is a mystery right now. But the Dolphins also have other injury concerns and a defense that’s a mess after the Jets scored 40 points against them last week. The Vikings, meanwhile, have won three in a row, although they’ve failed to cover as favorites in all three of those wins. Meanwhile, the Dolphins haven’t won a game in October since 2020. On the bright side, Miami is 8-3 SU at home over the last two years.
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Bengals at Saints
ATS Record: Bengals 3-2, Saints 2-3
O/U Record: Bengals 0-5, Saints 3-2
The Bengals hitting the under in all five games this year might be one of the biggest surprises of the season thus far. But that trend might not continue with the Saints already having three games that have gone over 50 total points. Of course, that’s because New Orleans has allowed at least 20 points in all five games and ranks in the bottom 10 in points allowed. On the other side, the Saints have been a competent passing team this year regardless of who’s playing quarterback. But that could play in Cincinnati’s favor, as the Bengals are 9-0 ATS over the last two years against teams that complete at least 61% of their passes. Zac Taylor is also 17-6 ATS against teams that average at least 235 passing yards per game. Taylor is also 19-10 ATS in road games.
Ravens at Giants
ATS Record: Ravens 2-2-1, Giants 4-1
O/U Record: Ravens 2-3, Giants 2-3
It’s not a typo; the Giants really are 4-1 after a comeback win over the Packers last week in London. Oddsmakers are still a little skeptical, as the G-Men are home underdogs this week. Then again, the Ravens are 2-0 on the road and have won both games by comfortable margins. However, while Lamar Jackson has put himself into the MVP discussion with a fast start, the Giants are only allowing 18.6 points per game. The G-Men have also won the last two times they’ve hosted the Ravens, although Baltimore has won five of the seven all-time meetings in this series, including a Super Bowl.
Buccaneers at Steelers
ATS Record: Buccaneers 2-3, Steelers 1-3-1
O/U Record: Buccaneers 1-4, Steelers 2-3
Things are looking ugly for the Steelers, who are lucky not to be 0-5 this season. At least for the moment, it doesn’t look like rookie QB Kenny Pickett is ready after last week’s 38-3 loss. The Steelers will get to return home this week, and while they’re 0-2 at home, those losses have only come by a combined seven points. Meanwhile, the Bucs have lost three in a row ATS, although they’ve covered both of their road games. The only good news for the Steelers is they’ve won nine of their 11 all-time meetings with the Bucs.
Panthers at Rams
ATS Record: Panthers 1-4, Rams 1-4
O/U Record: Panthers 2-3, Rams 1-4
The Panthers have fired Matt Rhule and are now double-digit underdogs on the road against the reigning Super Bowl champs. That’s not a good situation aside from the fact that Los Angeles has also failed to live up to expectations this year. The Rams have just 19 total points in their last two games and are 1-4 ATS. However, the Rams should be able to avoid an embarrassing loss this week, as Sean McVay is 11-1 against teams that average less than 90 rushing yards. Carolina currently sits at 89.8 rushing yards per game. McVay is also 7-1 SU whenever the over/under is between 35.5-42 points.
Cardinals at Seahawks
ATS Record: Cardinals 3-2, Seahawks 2-3
O/U Record: Cardinals 1-4, Seahawks 3-2
The Cardinals have been one of the few teams in the NFL that’s been immune to Seattle’s home-field advantage. Arizona has six wins in the team’s last nine trips to Seattle, including a 23-13 win last season. The Cardinals are also 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have allowed at least 27 points in four consecutive games. The good news is that Geno Smith and the offense are getting it done, averaging 34.3 points per game over the last three games. Also, Pete Carroll is 19-7 SU in Seattle when the Seahawks have allowed at least 25 points in back-to-back games.
Bills at Chiefs
ATS Record: Bills 3-1-1, Chiefs 3-2
O/U Record: Bills 1-4, Chiefs 3-2
Based on recent history, fans can only hope that this is a playoff preview. The Chiefs have broken Buffalo’s hearts in the last two postseasons, although the Bills were 38-20 victors when they visited Arrowhead Stadium during the regular season in 2021. The Bills are even favored in this game despite both teams being 4-1. That might have something to do with Kansas City being 0-2 ATS at home. But let’s not forget that Andy Reid is 35-18 ATS as head coach of the Chiefs when the spread is between -3 and +3.
Cowboys at Eagles
ATS Record: Cowboys 4-1, Eagles 3-2
O/U Record: Cowboys 1-4, Eagles 2-3
The NFL didn’t even need flex scheduling to put the biggest game of the week in primetime, as the 4-1 Cowboys visit the 5-0 Eagles. It’s worth noting the Cowboys have won seven of the last nine games in this rivalry, including three of their last five trips to Philly. The Dallas defense has also kept all five opponents under 20 points while the Eagles have scored at least 20 points in all five games, so something has to give in that respect. Despite being unbeaten, it still seems like the Eagles have something to prove in this game. Over the last two years, Dallas is 8-0 ATS on the road against NFC teams and 8-0 ATS against division rivals. Also, if the over/under holds at 42 points or less, Mike McCarthy is 19-3 ATS in his career when his team plays on the road with an over/under between 35.5 and 42 points.
Broncos at Chargers
ATS Record: Broncos 1-4, Chargers 4-1
O/U Record: Broncos 1-4, Chargers 3-2
Just when it looked like Denver’s offense couldn’t get any uglier, they scored nine points in last week’s home loss, as the Broncos continue to be plagued by turnovers in the red zone. To make matters worse, the Broncos are 0-2 on the road this year and now Russell Wilson is dealing with a shoulder problem. The only silver lining is the Chargers are allowing 29.3 points over their last four games, so the L.A. defense could be vulnerable. Of course, the Chargers have won four of their last six home games against the Broncos, including a 34-13 blowout last year.
MORE: SPORTSBOOKS’ BEST PROMOS FOR NFL WEEK 6
BetQL subscribers get more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every pick. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets, plus what the model is projecting for every college football game! Start your free trial today!