The NFL season moves into Week 5, and BetQL is your source for NFL best bets, live NFL public bets, live NFL sharp data, NFL line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NFL articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for this week's top matchups.
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ATS Record: Colts 1-3, Broncos 1-3
O/U Record: Colts 0-4, Broncos 1-3
Indy’s Week 3 win over the Chiefs is looking like an aberration after the Colts lost at home to the Titans last week. The only silver lining is that Frank Reich is 8-1 as Indy’s head coach following a home loss in which the Colts were favored. Meanwhile, the Denver offense is moving in the right direction despite a Week 4 loss. The Broncos scored more than 16 points and hit the over for the first time last week. Russell Wilson and Co. put together two 75-yard touchdown drives, and if a Melvin Gordon fumble hadn’t been returned 68 yards for a Las Vegas touchdown, last week’s 32-23 loss could have ended differently.
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ATS Record: Giants 3-1, Packers 2-2
O/U Record: Giants 1-3, Packers 1-3
Outside of this game being played in London, this feels like old times with both the G-Men and Packers sitting at 3-1. Naturally, the Giants are still considerable underdogs in this game, although they are 2-0 SU as underdogs this year. Of course, the Packers have covered in two of their last three games despite failing to cover last week, and they are 19-3 SU under Matt Lafleur whenever they’ve covered in two of their last three games. Lafleur is also 12-1 SU during the month of October since taking over in Green Bay.
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ATS Record: Bears 1-2-1, Vikings 1-3
O/U Record: Bears 1-3, Vikings 2-2
Before last year’s 31-17 home win by the Vikings, the Bears had won three straight trips to the Twin Cities. In fact, Chicago has won five of the last eight games in this rivalry. Of course, the 2022 Bears are averaging just 16 points per game, reaching 2-2 with smoke and mirrors. Meanwhile, the Vikings have found ways to win close games in each of the last two weeks. However, they’ve failed to cover as a favorite in either win, so seven points could be a lot to cover against a Chicago team that’s only conceding 19.3 points per game.
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ATS Record: Chargers 3-1, Browns 2-2
O/U Record: Chargers 2-2, Browns 3-1
This could be one of the more fascinating matchups this week, as both teams have had wild ups and downs over the first month of the season. They also played a wild game that the Chargers won, 47-42, last season. While the Chargers are coming off a win and the Browns are looking to bounce back from a loss, Kevin Stefanski is 16-4 SU as Cleveland’s head coach when coming off a loss.
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ATS Record: Lions 3-1, Patriots 1-2-1
O/U Record: Lions 4-0, Patriots 2-2
Both of these teams are 1-3, so it could be now or never if either wants to stay in the playoff picture. Of course, the Lions have been an unstoppable force at hitting the over thanks to a defense that can’t seem to stop anyone. Detroit’s games are averaging over 70 total points, making it impossible for oddsmakers to keep up. But that could be put to the test this week, as the Pats will have either Brian Hoyer or Bailey Zappe at quarterback. The Patriots, to their credit, won the only other game this season in which they were favored.
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ATS Record: Falcons 4-0, Buccaneers 2-2
O/U Record: Falcons 3-1, Buccaneers 1-3
Believe it or not, these teams have identical records at 2-2. Plus, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS, so oddsmakers have been underestimating them every step of the way. Obviously, the Atlanta defense has been a disaster, giving up over 25 points per game, but the Falcons have also scored at least 23 points in each game, which is a surprise. However, the Falcons are 0-4 against the Bucs since Tom Brady got to Tampa, so that’s a streak they will try to end this week.
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ATS Record: Texans 2-1-1, Jaguars 2-2
O/U Record: Texans 2-2, Jaguars 3-1
This has been a surprisingly one-sided rivalry in recent years, as the Texans have won eight straight games over the Jags. Going back even further, Houston has won 14 of 16 and 19 of 23 against Jacksonville. Yet, it’s the Jags who are home favorites against the winless Texans this week. Despite being favored, there has to be some concern with Jacksonville after committing five turnovers last week and being out-gained by more than 180 yards by Philly. However, Doug Pederson is 7-2 SU immediately after being out-gained by 150 yards or more in a game. He’s also 19-8 SU following games in which at least 50 total points were scored, which was the case in last week’s 29-21 loss to the Eagles.
ATS Record: Steelers 1-2-1, Bills 2-1-1
O/U Record: Steelers 2-2, Bills 1-3
This will be the fourth straight season these teams have met. Buffalo won the first two, only to have the Steelers pull off an upset on the road last season. Of course, the Steelers are coming off three straight losses and have turned things over to rookie QB Kenny Pickett, who will make his first career start this week. He’ll face a Buffalo defense that shut out Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in the second half of last week’s game and is giving up just 14.5 points per game this year. The Bills are also 8-1 ATS under Sean McDermott following a win of three points or less.
ATS Record: Seahawks 2-2, Saints 1-3
O/U Record: Seahawks 2-2, Saints 2-2
The Seahawks have lost the last three meetings between these teams and haven’t won a game in New Orleans since 2004, so history isn’t on Seattle’s side in this game. However, Pete Carroll is 19-5 SU with the Seahawks when allowing 25 points or more in at least two straight games. Carroll is also 23-2 SU with Seattle when facing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse, which bodes well for the Seahawks against the 1-3 Saints.
ATS Record: Dolphins 3-1, Jets 2-2
O/U Record: Dolphins 1-3, Jets 2-2
The Jets are somehow 2-2 and have QB Zach Wilson back healthy, so they have to feel good about their current situation. Miami, on the other hand, is coming off a loss and will be without Tua Tagovailoa in Week 5. Not surprisingly, the Dolphins have swept the season series from the Jets in back-to-back seasons, winning all four games by at least seven points. However, the Jets have won three of their last seven home games against the Dolphins. Oddly enough, the Jets are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS at home this year.
ATS Record: Titans 2-2, Commanders 1-3
O/U Record: Titans 2-2, Commanders 2-2
The Commanders are home underdogs in this game, so oddsmakers don’t have much faith in them after three straight losses. It’s not like the Titans have been overly impressive this year, although they have won back-to-back games. The good news for the Commanders is Ron Rivera is 29-12 ATS when coming off a road loss. Rivera is also 11-1 SU against the AFC South during his head coaching career.
ATS Record: 49ers 2-2, Panthers 1-3
O/U Record: 49ers 0-4, Panthers 1-3
Unfortunately for the 49ers, they can’t play the Rams every week. However, their continued success over Los Angeles has them sitting at 2-2 before back-to-back trips to the East Coast to play teams from the NFC South. Meanwhile, the Panthers are in the danger zone at 1-3. However, they did win their only other game this season when they were a home underdog. Perhaps more importantly, these teams have both showcased lackluster offenses and strong defenses this year, combining to go 1-7 O/U.
ATS Record: Cowboys 3-1, Rams 1-3
O/U Record: Cowboys 1-3, Rams 1-3
Perhaps the Cowboys really are better off with Cooper Rush at quarterback. Of course, it’s been the Dallas defense that’s been doing the heavy lifting, and winning games over the Giants and Commanders in the last two weeks isn’t all that impressive. The Cowboys should get a real test this week when they visit the Rams. However, the Rams offense just isn’t clicking, scoring 20 points or less in three of four games this year. It won’t get any easier against a Dallas defense that’s giving up 15.5 points per game.
ATS Record: Eagles 3-1, Cardinals 2-2
O/U Record: Eagles 2-2, Cardinals 1-3
The Eagles are heading West this week to put their undefeated record on the line against a former division rival. The Cardinals are actually 0-2 at home this year, so it shouldn’t be surprising that the Eagles are road favorites in this game. But it’s worth remembering that under Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals are 21-10 ATS as underdogs and 12-3 ATS during the month of October.
ATS Record: Bengals 2-2, Ravens 2-1-1
O/U Record: Bengals 0-4, Ravens 2-2
These two rivals are quite familiar with each other, and the intensity will be high with both teams at 2-2 and the AFC North very much up for grabs. It’s been a weird season for both teams with the Ravens going 0-2 SU at home and the Bengals going 0-4 O/U despite an offense that most expected to be firing on all cylinders. Despite Baltimore’s uneven start, Lamar Jackson has put himself in the MVP discussion and is averaging 7.6 yards per pass on the season. However, Zac Taylor is 8-1 ATS as Cincinnati’s head coach against teams that average at least 7.5 yards per pass. The Bengals are also 11-3 ATS under Taylor when they’re on the road with an over/under of 45.5 points or more.
ATS Record: Raiders 1-3, Chiefs 2-2
O/U Record: Raiders 2-2, Chiefs 2-2
The Raiders managed to get their first win of the season last week, although they are still two games behind the 3-1 Chiefs in the AFC West. They also haven’t had the best luck against K.C. lately, going 3-15 against the Chiefs over the last nine years and winning just one of their last nine trips to Arrowhead. Also, while the Chiefs are obviously favored in this game, they won as underdogs last week; Kansas City is now 12-3 ATS under Andy Reid following a win as a road underdog.
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