NFL Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks For Week 4
NFL betting odds, trends and picks you need to know for Week 4
Bryan Zarpentine - Sep 29, 2022, 9:21am EDT
The NFL season moves into Week 4, and BetQL is your source for NFL best bets, live NFL public bets, live NFL sharp data, NFL line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NFL articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for this week's top matchups.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every pick. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets, plus what the model is projecting for every college football game! Start your free trial today!
Dolphins at Bengals
ATS Record: Dolphins 3-0, Bengals 1-2
O/U Record: Dolphins 1-2, Bengals 0-3
The home team has been victorious the last five times the Bengals and Dolphins have gotten together. Of course, two of those games went to overtime, so they’ve been tight games. Cincinnati certainly needs the win more, as the Bengals are still trying to recover from a 1-2 start. Over the last two seasons, Cincinnati is 10-2 ATS and 9-3 SU when facing a team with a winning record. However, the Dolphins are legit after beating the Ravens and Bills in back-to-back weeks. Miami was an underdog in both games and is now aiming for a third straight win as an underdog.
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Vikings at Saints
ATS Record: Vikings 1-2, Saints 0-3
O/U Record: Vikings 1-2, Saints 1-2
The Vikings and Saints give us the first London game of the season on Sunday morning. Both teams are actually 2-0 in previous London games, so that perfect record will change for one of them. New Orleans being an underdog may not bode well for the Saints, who are winless ATS this year and have scored just 24 total points over their last two games. Of course, the Vikings have allowed 24 points in back-to-back weeks, so something has to give in this game.
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Bills at Ravens
ATS Record: Bills 2-1, Ravens 2-1
O/U Record: Bills 1-2, Ravens 2-1
The last time the Bills visited M&T Bank Stadium, they lost 47-3. While their other trips to Baltimore have been a little more competitive, Buffalo is 0-5 when playing the Ravens on the road. With the over/under opening at 51.5 points, a high-scoring game should be suitable for Josh Allen and the Bills. The Ravens have certainly grown accustomed to that type of game with 143 total points being scored in Baltimore’s last two games. But that might be a good omen for the Ravens, who are 14-2 ATS under John Harbaugh following back-to-back games in which at least 50 points were scored.
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Bears at Giants
ATS Record: Bears 1-1-1, Giants 2-1
O/U Record: Bears 1-2, Giants 1-2
It’s a battle of the shockingly 2-1 teams! The Giants made some waves with a surprising 2-0 start, but the Bears deserve some credit too for getting to 2-1 amidst the lowest of preseason expectations. This will be the fifth straight season the Bears and Giants have met, with Chicago rocking a three-game winning streak against the G-Men. However, all three of those games were at Soldier Field with the home team winning the last seven Bears-Giants games.
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Seahawks at Lions
ATS Record: Seahawks 1-2, Lions 3-0
O/U Record: Seahawks 1-2, Lions 3-0
Everyone is still underestimating the Lions, who are unbeaten ATS through three games. They are also crushing the point totals, thanks to a defense that’s allowing 31 points per game through three games. That will be put to the test this week with the Seahawks averaging just 15.7 points per game. But while Seattle has lost two in a row, Pete Carroll is 18-3 ATS with the Seahawks whenever they’ve lost two or more straight games.
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Jaguars at Eagles
ATS Record: Jaguars 2-1, Eagles 2-1
O/U Record: Jaguars 2-1, Eagles 1-2
The Jags sure made a statement last week with their win over the Chargers. That win puts Jacksonville into first place in the AFC South. The problem is the Jags are 0-6 ATS against NFC teams over the last two seasons, including a loss to Washington in Week 1. On the other side, Philly’s entire 3-0 start to the season has been a huge statement. Not only have they covered the last two weeks, but the Eagles have won comfortably. Of course, as Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson makes his return to Philadelphia, it’s important to keep in mind that he’s 25-15 SU in his career when coming off a win.
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Browns at Falcons
ATS Record: Browns 2-1, Falcons 3-0
O/U Record: Browns 3-0, Falcons 3-0
It’d be a shame if we didn’t get some offensive fireworks in this game with both teams hitting the over three times in three weeks. The Falcons, in particular, have scored at least 26 points in all three games and conceded at least 23 points in all three games. They’ve also been underdogs in all three games and beat the spread in each one. That might be a good omen after opening as a mere 1.5-point favorite this week.
Chargers at Texans
ATS Record: Chargers 2-1, Texans 2-0-1
O/U Record: Chargers 1-2, Texans 1-2
What in the world was that? That must be what fans of the Chargers are thinking after a 38-10 home loss to the Jaguars, dropping the Chargers to 1-2 on the season after the campaign began with such high hopes. Obviously, the Chargers can’t afford to lose to the Texans, even on the road. However, Houston is unbeaten ATS through three games with a defense that’s giving up a little less than 20 points per game.
Jets at Steelers
ATS Record: Jets 1-2, Steelers 1-1-1
O/U Record: Jets 1-2, Steelers 1-2
The Jets are one miraculous comeback away from being winless on the season, although the Steelers haven’t been much better, as they are one Cincinnati injured holder away from potentially being 0-3 as well. The good news for the Steelers is that Mike Tomlin is 41-15 SU during the month of October. Robert Saleh has no such track record, although the Jets did go 2-2 last October under Saleh and are hoping that Zach Wilson can return from injury this week.
Titans at Colts
ATS Record: Titans 1-2, Colts 1-2
O/U Record: Titans 2-1, Colts 0-3
Things are suddenly looking up for the AFC South, which had three wins last week (all against AFC West teams), setting up a game between the two teams we thought would be fighting all season for the division crown. The problem is that both teams looked dreadful during the first two weeks of the season, so who knows what version of the Titans and Colts will show up this week. But we do know the Titans have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams, including their last three trips to Indianapolis.
Commanders at Cowboys
ATS Record: Commanders 1-2, Cowboys 2-1
O/U Record: Commanders 2-1, Cowboys 1-2
Who could have predicted that Dallas would be 2-0 SU with Cooper Rush at quarterback? They actually won both games as an underdog but now have to deal with being a favorite in Week 4 against the Commanders. The Cowboys swept the season series from Washington last year and have held serve at home in five of their last six games hosting the Washington franchise. In fact, the Cowboys are 7-0 ATS when facing their NFC East rivals dating back to the start of last season. They are also 10-4 SU under Mike McCarthy when facing a team with a losing record.
Cardinals at Panthers
ATS Record: Cardinals 1-2, Panthers 1-2
O/U Record: Cardinals 1-2, Panthers 1-2
Both teams are 1-2 and can’t afford to fall too far behind this early in the season. Under Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals have been road warriors, going 18-9 ATS in road games and 14-6 ATS as road underdogs. At the same time, the Panthers are 0-6 ATS under Matt Rhule when they are favored at home by three points or less. However, the Panthers have won the last six games they’ve played against Arizona. That includes multiple playoff games and a 34-10 thrashing in the desert last season.
Broncos at Raiders
ATS Record: Broncos 1-2, Raiders 0-3
O/U Record: Broncos 0-3, Raiders 1-2
The only thing that stings more than being 0-3 SU is losing two of those games as the favorite and being 0-3 ATS. But that’s where the Raiders find themselves right now, as they search for their first win of the season as home favorites against one of their old rivals. The good news for the Raiders is they’ve swept Denver in back-to-back seasons and won six straight home games against the Broncos, regardless of the city they call home. The Broncos, to their credit, have found ways to win ugly games in the last two weeks and are 2-1 despite scoring just 14.3 points per game.
Patriots at Packers
ATS Record: Patriots 0-2-1, Packers 2-1
O/U Record: Patriots 1-2, Packers 0-3
The Patriots are just 1-2 with Mac Jones at quarterback and now they might need to survive a few weeks without him. Obviously, that doesn’t feel like a recipe for success ahead of a trip to Lambeau Field, which explains why New England opened as a double-digit underdog. However, the Green Bay offense isn’t yet clicking, scoring 14 points or less in two of three games and staying under the point total in all three games. In a way, that plays into the hands of Bill Belichick, who is 40-12 SU during his long tenure in New England when the over/under is set between 35.5 and 42 points.
Chiefs at Buccaneers
ATS Record: Chiefs 1-2, Buccaneers 2-1
O/U Record: Chiefs 1-2, Buccaneers 0-3
Sunday’s nightcap gives us a Super Bowl rematch from a couple of seasons ago. Plus, this could be the last time we see Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady share a field with those two already giving us some memorable games, including that Super Bowl. Oddly enough, both teams are coming off a loss last week, putting both under a little pressure to avoid a second straight defeat. Over the last three seasons, the Bucs have gone 9-1 SU against AFC teams, which could bode well for Tampa as a slight home underdog. Of course, Andy Reid is 34-18 ATS as Kansas City’s coach when the spread is between -3 and +3.
Rams at 49ers
ATS Record: Rams 1-2, 49ers 1-2
O/U Record: Rams 1-2, 49ers 0-3
The reigning champs are road underdogs against a 1-2 San Francisco team, which shows a little lack of faith in the Rams by oddsmakers. Of course, the oddsmakers know that the 49ers had won six straight over the Rams until last season’s NFC Championship Game. Plus, the Rams have just three wins in their last 14 road games against the 49ers. Under Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco is 15-6 ATS and 15-6 SU immediately after playing a non-conference game. Of course, it’ll have to be a defensive-led game for the 49ers, who have allowed just 12.3 points per game but had some troubling moments offensively under Jimmy Garoppolo last week.
MORE: SPORTSBOOKS’ BEST PROMOS FOR NFL WEEK 4
BetQL subscribers get more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every pick. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets, plus what the model is projecting for every college football game! Start your free trial today!