NFL Betting Guide: Odds, Trends & Picks For Week 18
NFL betting lines, trends and picks you need to know for Week 18
Bryan Zarpentine - Jan 7, 2023, 9:22am EST
NFL Betting Lines, Odds & Picks For Week 18
The NFL season moves into Week 18, and BetQL is your source for NFL best bets, live NFL public bets, live NFL sharp data, NFL line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NFL articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for this week's top matchups.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NFL model is finishing the regular season strong, going 34-18 (66%) on all NFL picks rated ⭐⭐ and higher last weekend for a total return of $608 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best NFL bets, including player props, with star ratings for every pick.
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Chiefs at Raiders
ATS Record: Chiefs 6-10, Raiders 8-8
O/U Record: Chiefs 8-8, Raiders 8-8
The Chiefs need to win if they hope to earn the top seed in the AFC. The good news is they’ve won 16 of their last 19 games against the Raiders. However, they barely escaped with a one-point home win against them earlier this year. Kansas City is also 1-4 ATS over the last five games, so covering the spread has been difficult. At the same time, the Raiders are 6-0 ATS when playing a team with a winning record this season. The flip side of that is the Raiders have lost three of their last four games and turned to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, although he led the Las Vegas offense to 34 points against the 49ers last week. The Raiders are also 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS at home this season.
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Titans at Jaguars
ATS Record: Titans 8-7-1, Jaguars 8-8
O/U Record: Titans 5-11, Jaguars 8-8
Saturday’s primetime game will determine the AFC South winner, although the Jags can technically sneak into a wild-card spot with a loss and a lot of help. Of course, the Jaguars are hoping they can take care of business themselves on the heels of four straight wins, including a 36-22 road win over the Titans. Since the start of November, Jacksonville is 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS, adding to Doug Pederson’s career record of being 32-15 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Titans are in a state of free fall, losing six in a row and going 0-5-1 ATS. They couldn’t even beat the spread as 13.5-point home underdogs last week, albeit with some key players sitting out to get some extra rest. But there are a few silver linings for Tennessee. First, the Titans are 5-2-1 ATS on the road this year. They’ve also won four of their last five games in Jacksonville and haven’t been swept by the Jags since 2005, so there are small signs of hope, even for a team that's lost six in a row.
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Buccaneers at Falcons
ATS Record: Buccaneers 4-11-1, Falcons 8-8
O/U Record: Buccaneers 5-11, Falcons 6-10
This is essentially a meaningless game for the Bucs. Win or lose, they will be the No. 4 seed in the NFC after clinching the South division last week. Naturally, Tampa will want to keep building momentum and avoid finishing with a losing record. Tom Brady and Mike Evans finally got on the same page last week, helping the Bucs snap a five-game ATS losing streak. Of course, they are just 1-6 ATS on the road this year. As for the Falcons, they snapped a four-game losing streak with a 20-19 win over the Cardinals last week. Nevertheless, they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after starting 6-0. The Falcons have also lost their last five games against the Buccaneers, as well as their last three home games against the Bucs.
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Vikings at Bears
ATS Record: Vikings 6-9-1, Bears 5-10-1
O/U Record: Vikings 11-5, Bears 10-6
The Vikings can’t get the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but with a win and losses by the Cowboys and 49ers, they can earn the No. 2 seed and potentially host two playoff games. They also don’t want to enter the playoffs coming off a loss to the lowly Bears, especially with Minnesota losing four in a row ATS. Keep in mind they are 2-4-1 ATS on the road with two of their four losses this year coming on the road against NFC North rivals. Meanwhile, the Bears are hoping to avoid a 10-game losing streak to close out the season. During their current losing streak, Chicago is just 2-7 ATS with five losses coming by more than a touchdown.
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Texans at Colts
ATS Record: Texans 7-8-1, Colts 6-10
O/U Record: Texans 6-10, Colts 6-10
Records aside, the Colts might be the worst team in the NFL heading into the final week of the season. They’ve lost six in a row, going 2-4 ATS during that stretch, which includes the biggest blown lead in NFL history. Indy has scored just 13 points over the last two weeks and may have to stick with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback this week. As for the Texans, they got blown out by Jacksonville last week but are 3-1 ATS over the last four weeks. Also, Houston’s only two wins this season have actually come on the road against division foes.
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Jets at Dolphins
ATS Record: Jets 8-8, Dolphins 8-8
O/U Record: Jets 5-11, Dolphins 8-8
The Jets are out of the playoff picture and the Dolphins need a win and some help with both teams heading into their AFC East showdown this week on the heels of a five-game losing streak. The Dolphins need a win and a New England loss to get into the playoffs, which isn’t that far-fetched. However, the status of both Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater is uncertain, adding to the team’s woes. The Dolphins also got crushed by the Jets, 40-17, earlier this season with third-stringer Skylar Thompson playing most of that game. On the bright side, only one of Miami’s losses during their current losing streak came at home. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS when favored at home this season. They’ve also won their last six home games against the Jets. To their credit, the Jets have three wins this season as road underdogs, although all three wins came during the early part of the season.
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Panthers at Saints
ATS Record: Panthers 8-8, Saints 7-9
O/U Record: Panthers 8-8, Saints 6-10
Unfortunately, both of these teams are out of the playoff picture, rendering this game mostly meaningless. To their credit, the Saints have won three in a row coming down the stretch, although they’ll be favored this week and are just 2-3 ATS when favored this season. That includes a 22-14 loss to Carolina earlier this season. However, New Orleans has won nine of the last 12 games in this series. As for the Panthers, they let a lead slip away against the Bucs last week, dropping them to 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS on the road this season. They’ve also allowed 25.3 points per game over their last four games.
Browns at Steelers
ATS Record: Browns 8-8, Steelers 9-6-1
O/U Record: Browns 7-8-1, Steelers 6-10
Somehow, the Steelers keep staying alive. They’ve won three in a row and five of their last six games to get to 8-8. However, they still need a win and losses by both the Patriots and Dolphins to get to the playoffs, but it’s possible. However, the same Cleveland team they lost to in Week 3 isn’t going to make it easy on them here. The Browns were happy to end Washington’s playoff hopes with a road win over the Commanders last week and there’s nothing they’d love more than to do the same to the rival Steelers. Cleveland’s problem is that despite a playoff win two years ago, the Browns haven’t beaten the Steelers on the road during the regular season since 2003. Since the franchise was re-born in 1999, they have just three wins in 25 games in Pittsburgh, which is a lot of history to fight against.
Patriots at Bills
ATS Record: Patriots 7-8-1, Bills 7-7-1
O/U Record: Patriots 7-9, Bills 5-10
After an unspeakable turn of events on Monday night, the Bills are scheduled to host the Patriots on Sunday. Depending on what happens with the result of Monday’s incomplete game, the Bills need to win to maintain hope of earning the top seed in the AFC. The good news is that the Bills have won four of their last five head-to-head games with the Pats. That includes a 24-10 win earlier this season and a 30-point win in the playoffs last season. As for the Patriots, they are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Yet, a win in Buffalo would put the Patriots in the playoffs. If not, they’re going to need to get some outside help. Keep in mind New England is just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.
Ravens at Bengals
ATS Record: Ravens 6-9-1, Bengals 12-3
O/U Record: Ravens 4-12, Bengals 5-9-1
Despite not completing Monday’s game against the Bills, the Bengals can clinch the AFC North crown by beating the Ravens in Week 18. But if Baltimore wins, the Ravens have a chance to win the division if these teams end up with the same record, as the Ravens eked out a 19-17 win over the Bengals earlier this season. They’ve also won in three of their last four trips to Cincinnati. But the Ravens have lost two of their last three games and still don’t know if Lamar Jackson will be healthy enough to play this week. Without Jackson, the Ravens are averaging just 11.8 points per game over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Bengals are still riding a seven-game winning streak and are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
Chargers at Broncos
ATS Record: Chargers 10-5-1, Broncos 7-9
O/U Record: Chargers 6-9-1, Broncos 5-11
The Chargers know they’ll be in the playoffs, although if the Ravens lose their final game, Los Angeles could earn the No. 5 seed, which would give them a better matchup in the wild-card Round. However, as bad as the Broncos have been in recent years, the Chargers have just one win in their last nine trips to the Mile High City. They struggled to a 19-16 overtime win against the Broncos earlier this season and haven’t swept Denver since 2010. The Broncos also played the Chiefs tough last week and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. In a shocking twist, the Broncos have also hit the over in four straight games after being a virtual lock for the under throughout most of the season. Meanwhile, the Chargers are red-hot coming down the stretch, winning five of their last six games and going 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games.
Giants at Eagles
ATS Record: Giants 12-4, Eagles 8-8
O/U Record: Giants 7-8-1, Eagles 9-6-1
The Eagles still have some work to do heading into Week 18, although all they need is a win over the Giants to clinch the NFC East. Of course, with a loss, they risk falling into a wild-card spot and having to win three road games to get to the Super Bowl. The good news is the Eagles haven’t lost to the Giants at home since 2013, winning eight straight home games against the NFC East rivals. They are also 8-2 ATS as a home favorite under Nick Sirianni. On the other hand, the Giants of 2022 aren’t the same Giants who lost those eight straight games in Philly. They are going to the playoffs and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a beatdown of the Colts last week. However, the G-Men are glued to the No. 6 seed in the NFC, so this game means nothing to them, at least in the standings.
Cardinals at 49ers
ATS Record: Cardinals 8-8, 49ers 10-6
O/U Record: Cardinals 8-8, 49ers 8-8
The 49ers have a chance to head into the playoffs with 10 straight wins if they can beat the Cardinals this week. Keep in mind the last five of those nine wins have come with Brock Purdy at quarterback. The 49ers have scored over 30 points in four of those five games. They are also 7-2 ATS during their current winning streak, including a 38-10 win over the Cardinals. As for Arizona, they are riding a six-game losing streak heading into the final week of the season, albeit going 3-3 ATS during that stretch. The Cardinals have reached 20 points just once during that six-game losing streak and now have David Blough leading the offense.
Cowboys at Commanders
ATS Record: Cowboys 10-6, Commanders 7-8-1
O/U Record: Cowboys 8-7-1, Cowboys 5-10-1
This game is meaningless for the Commanders, who have lost three in a row and been eliminated from playoff contention. They’ve also lost three in a row against Dallas, including a 25-10 loss earlier this season. As for the Cowboys, a win coupled with a Philadelphia loss will give them the NFC East crown. Add a 49ers loss to the equation and the Cowboys can still earn the top seed in the NFC. Dallas heads into the final week winning six of seven with the only blemish being an overtime loss to the Jaguars. But the Cowboys have only been a modest 4-3 SU and 4-3 ATS on the road this season. Plus, Ron Rivera is 36-21 ATS when trying to avenge a loss against an opponent from earlier in the season.
Rams at Seahawks
ATS Record: Rams 5-10-1, Seahawks 7-9
O/U Record: Rams 6-9-1, Seahawks 8-8
After snapping a three-game losing streak and a six-game ATS losing streak with a convincing win over the Jets, the Seahawks are still alive in the playoff race. With a win over the Rams and a Green Bay loss, the Seahawks will get there. Seattle’s home-field advantage will be put to the test, as the Seahawks are just 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS at home this year, although they are 63-45 ATS under Pete Carroll at home. The Seahawks also enjoyed a road win over the Rams earlier this season, giving them a chance to sweep the Rams for the first time since 2013 when they won the Super Bowl. As for the Rams, they’ve gone 1-6 SU at home this season with five of those losses coming by at least seven points and four coming by double figures.
Lions at Packers
ATS Record: Lions 11-5, Packers 8-8
O/U Record: Lions 10-6, Packers 8-8
Before the season, few would have predicted that this would be the Week 18 game with the biggest playoff implications in the NFC, but that’s how things have played out. The Packers have won four in a row to not only stay alive but control their own destiny. A win at home puts the Packers in the playoffs. Keep in mind the Lions haven’t won at Lambeau Field since 2018 and have just three wins there since 1991. That being said, the Lions are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games, a stretch that began with a 15-10 win over the Packers. Detroit is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS as a road underdog this year, so that role shouldn’t bother Dan Campbell’s team. Meanwhile, the Packers are 3-3 ATS when favored at Lambeau Field this season.
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