NFL Betting Guide: Odds, Trends & Picks For Week 13

NFL Betting Lines, Odds & Picks For Week 13

The NFL season moves into Week 13, and BetQL is your source for NFL best bets, live NFL public bets, live NFL sharp data, NFL line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NFL articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for this week's top matchups.

One trend to note is that, over the past two weeks, the BetQL NFL model has gone 89-54 (62.2%) on all bets for a total return of $1,321 on $100 bets!

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MORE: SPORTSBOOKS’ BEST PROMOS FOR NFL WEEK 13

Bills vs Patriots

ATS Record: Bills 5-5-1, Patriots 6-4-1

O/U Record: Bills 3-8, Patriots 5-6

These bitter rivals are meeting for the first time since the Bills crushed New England 47-17 in the playoffs last season. With that win, the Bills have won four of the last five meetings between the teams, including their last two trips to New England. But more recently, the Bills are just 1-4 ATS over their last five games. Also, two of their losses this season have come as road favorites. Meanwhile, the Patriots are coming off a disappointing 33-26 loss on Thanksgiving, so they need a win to get back on track and improve their playoff chances. The good news is Bill Belichick is 41-16 ATS during his time in New England after his team gives up 30 or more points. But the Patriots are also just 1-4 SU as an underdog this season.

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Steelers vs Falcons

ATS Record: Steelers 5-5-1, Falcons 7-5

O/U Record: Steelers 5-6, Falcons 6-6

Believe it or not, the Falcons are only 1.5 games out of first place in the NFC South, so a win this week would be huge heading into their bye week and keep them in contention down the stretch. The amazing thing is that Atlanta is still alive despite going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six weeks. Despite those recent struggles, the Falcons are 4-2 SU at home this season and 2-0 SU when they’re favored at home. On the other hand, the Steelers are playing in a short week but have won two of their last three games after beating the Colts on Monday night. They’re also 3-3 ATS on the road this season.

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Packers vs Bears

ATS Record: Packers 4-8, Bears 4-7-1

O/U Record: Packers 6-6, Bears 8-4

The Packers found their rhythm offensively last week despite falling short against the Eagles. After a lot of poor performances, the Green Bay offense has scored over 30 points twice in the last three weeks, giving them three straight overs in the process. Of course, the wins haven’t come, putting the Packers just one game ahead of the Bears in the NFC North. On the bright side, Green Bay has won seven straight head-to-head games in this rivalry, including a 27-10 win earlier this season. As for the Bears, they’ve lost five in a row, giving up 34.6 points per game in those five losses. Needless to say, Chicago has hit six straight overs. However, after the Bears scored just 10 points last week without Justin Fields, the status of their starting quarterback is worth monitoring closely this week.

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Jaguars vs Lions

ATS Record: Jaguars 4-7, Lions 7-4

O/U Record: Jaguars 5-6, Lions 7-4

While they came up a little short on Thanksgiving, the Lions have still won three of their last four games and won four straight ATS. Obviously, being favored in this game puts them in unfamiliar territory, as they lost the only other game they’ve been favored this season. However, Dan Campbell is now 10-2 ATS with Detroit during the second half of the season, so the Lions could be poised to continue their late success. On the other hand, the Jags just beat the Ravens, giving them two wins in their last three games, both wins coming as underdogs. But Jacksonville is also 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in road and neutral site games this season.

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Jets vs Vikings

ATS Record: Jets 7-4, Vikings 5-5-1

O/U Record: Jets 4-7, Vikings 6-5

To Minnesota’s credit, they bounced back quickly from an embarrassing 40-3 loss to the Cowboys two weeks ago with a Thanksgiving win over the Patriots. They now have a chance to sweep the AFC East this season if they can beat the Jets. Keep in mind the Vikings were home underdogs against Dallas. Despite an uneven ATS record, Minnesota is 8-0 SU when favored this season. As for the Jets, last week’s quarterback change seemed to work in a 31-10 win over the Bears. They’ve also won both of their games against the NFC North this year and are a remarkable 4-1 SU on the road with three of those four wins coming as a road underdog.

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Commanders vs Giants

ATS Record: Commanders 7-4-1, Giants 8-3

O/U Record: Commanders 4-8, Giants 4-7

Rivalry aside, this game is huge for the playoff hopes of both teams. The Giants have started to slip lately, losing back-to-back games and three of their last four. However, the G-Men are back to being underdogs this week, giving them a role that seems to suit them. They are 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU as underdogs this year. On the other side, the Commanders have won three in a row for the second time this season, winning six of their last seven games overall to put themselves in the playoff picture. This will only be the fifth time the Commanders have been favored this season, but Washington has won and covered in each of the previous four games as favorites.

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Titans vs Eagles

ATS Record: Titans 8-3, Eagles 6-5

O/U Record: Titans 3-8, Eagles 6-4-1

At 10-1, the Eagles keep finding ways to win games. They also snapped a three-game losing streak ATS in last week’s win over the Packers. With that win, Philadelphia is now 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS at home this season. However, the Titans have proven themselves to be a thorn in the side of opposing teams, even with last week’s loss to the Bengals. Until that loss, the Titans had won eight in a row ATS. They are now 4-1 ATS as underdogs in 2022. Also, Mike Vrabel is 14-8 SU when the Titans are underdogs with a moneyline between +140 and +325. During Vrabel’s tenure, Tennessee is 15-5 SU against NFC opponents.

Broncos vs Ravens

ATS Record: Broncos 3-8, Ravens 4-6-1

O/U Record: Broncos 1-10, Ravens 4-7

Denver continues to be a virtual lock to hit the under thanks to an abysmal offense that scored just 10 points last week against the Panthers. To make matters worse, the Broncos have conceded over 20 points in back-to-back games despite doing so just once in their first nine games. The Broncos are also playing a road game on the East Coast for the second straight week. Of course, the Ravens are in a tough position too after losing to the Jags last week. Baltimore is also just 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS as a home favorite this year. In fact, over the last two years, the Ravens are 1-9 ATS when they are favored between 3.5 and 9.5 points.

Browns vs Texans

ATS Record: Browns 5-6, Texans 4-6-1

O/U Record: Browns 7-3-1, Texans 4-7

Fittingly, Deshaun Watson makes his debut with the Browns against his former team. Against all odds, he actually has a chance to make a difference down the stretch. Cleveland’s slim playoff hopes are still intact after last week’s win over the Buccaneers. But needless to say, they can’t afford to lose to the lowly Texans, even on the road. The problem is the Browns are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS on the road. Of course, the Texans have lost six in a row and are 1-5 ATS during that stretch. Even as 14-point underdogs last week, Houston couldn’t cover, losing 30-15 to the Dolphins. The only good news is that Lovie Smith is 27-17 SU in his coaching career immediately after his team loses by at least 10 points and 21-14 SU after allowing at least 30 points.

Seahawks vs Rams

ATS Record: Seahawks 6-5, Rams 2-8-1

O/U Record: Seahawks 6-5, Rams 4-7

It’s all but official that the Rams won’t be repeating as Super Bowl champs this year. Sean McVay’s team has lost five in a row, going 0-4-1 ATS in those losses. It’s also unclear if Matthew Stafford will return from his concussion, especially since the season looks like a lost one. The silver lining is the Rams have won seven of their last eight games when hosting the Seahawks. The Rams are also 10-2 SU under McVay right after allowing over 300 passing yards, which Los Angeles did against Patrick Mahomes last week. As for the Seahawks, their playoff hopes are starting to slip after back-to-back losses. They lost as home favorites last week and will be favored on the road this week. Seattle has thrived in the underdog role this year but is just 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS when favored.

Dolphins vs 49ers

ATS Record: Dolphins 6-5, 49ers 6-5

O/U Record: Dolphins 5-6, 49ers 4-7

This might be the best game of the week, as both teams are trending in the right direction. San Francisco has won four in a row while also losing just one game at home this season, which came against the Chiefs. Anytime the 49ers have won at least four of their last six games under Kyle Shanahan, they’ve gone 17-5 ATS. On the other side, the Dolphins have won five in a row and are undefeated when Tua Tagovailoa is able to start and finish a game. The only caveat is the Dolphins haven’t won ATS on the road since their Week 2 win over the Ravens.

Chiefs vs Bengals

ATS Record: Chiefs 5-6, Bengals 8-3

O/U Record: Chiefs 5-6, Bengals 4-6-1

Obviously, this is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game, but it also looks like a potential playoff preview this season considering how these teams have played lately. Even with the Bengals winning three in a row and covering the spread in all three games, they are home underdogs against the Chiefs. Keep in mind that since their 0-2 starts, Cincinnati is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS. Under Zac Taylor, the Bengals are also 8-1 ATS against teams that average at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which the Chiefs are surely doing behind MVP frontrunner Patrick Mahomes. Of course, the Chiefs have won five in a row, although they are 1-2 ATS as road favorites.

Chargers vs Raiders

ATS Record: Chargers 7-4, Raiders 5-6

O/U Record: Chargers 6-5, Raiders 6-5

The Chargers and Raiders are back at Allegiant Field for the first time since last year’s epic Week 18 game. With back-to-back wins, the Raiders have to feel as if their playoff hopes aren’t completely over just yet, especially with a favorite December schedule. While the Chargers took the first meeting between these teams 24-19, Los Angeles hasn’t swept the season series against the Raiders since 2018. However, the Chargers are a remarkable 5-1 ATS on the road this season with last week’s 25-24 win over the Cardinals the first time they lost a game ATS on the road, going 4-2 SU away from home in 2022.

Colts vs Cowboys

ATS Record: Colts 5-7, Cowboys 7-4

O/U Record: Colts 3-9, Cowboys 4-6-1

This will be the sixth straight game that Dallas is the favorite. In the previous five games, the Cowboys are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. Dallas is also 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this season. Under Mike McCarthy, they are also 13-5 SU when facing a team with a losing record. As for the Colts, they are traveling to Dallas in a short week and coming off back-to-back losses. Indy’s season is all but over at this point, especially with four of their last five games coming against teams with a winning record. For what it’s worth, the Colts are 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS as a road underdog this year, although those wins came against the Broncos and Raiders while Indy lost by two scores in road games against both the Titans and Patriots as a road underdog.

Saints vs Buccaneers

ATS Record: Saints 4-8, Buccaneers 3-7-1

O/U Record: Saints 6-6, Buccaneers 2-9

Despite falling under .500 with last week’s loss to the Browns, Tampa still leads the NFC West. Meanwhile, the Saints are just 1.5 games out despite being tied for last. If nothing else, the Bucs have won three of their last four home games. However, despite being favored in every game this season, Tampa has only covered the spread once since beating the Saints 20-10 in Week 2. The Bucs have also lost their last four home games against the Saints, who have been remarkably good playing at Raymond James Stadium. The problem for New Orleans is they’ve lost three of their last four games, scoring 13 points or less in their three losses during that stretch.

MORE NFL: THIS WEEK’S BETQL STAFF PICKS

BetQL subscribers get more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every pick. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets, plus what the model is projecting for every NBA, NHL, college football and college basketball game! Start your free trial today!