Simulation Model Projects Surprising 2022 Rushing Yards Leader
Steelers running back Najee Harris is in store for a huge year
Last season, Pittsburgh Steelers rookie Najee Harris took the NFL by storm as one of the true bell cow running backs in the league. Carrying the ball 307 times (2nd-most), he accumulated 1,200 rushing yards (4th) with seven scores on the ground (T-14th) in 17 games. He also caught 74 passes on 94 targets for an additional 467 receiving yards with three more scores.
Overall, his 381 touches led the entire NFL.
Heading into the 2022 campaign, he will be relied on to lead Pittsburgh’s offense once again, this time with a new quarterback under center. However, it's much more likely than not that the team will look for ways to reduce his workload to preserve his health and overall efficiency.
After simulating every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times, BetQL’s NFL Model projects Harris to accrue the following stats.
Last season, Pittsburgh Steelers rookie Najee Harris took the NFL by storm as one of the true bell cow running backs in the league. Carrying the ball 307 times (2nd-most), he accumulated 1,200 rushing yards (4th) with seven scores on the ground (T-14th) in 17 games. He also caught 74 passes on 94 targets for an additional 467 receiving yards with three more scores.
Overall, his 381 touches led the entire NFL.
Heading into the 2022 campaign, he will be relied on to lead Pittsburgh’s offense once again, this time with a new quarterback under center. However, it's much more likely than not that the team will look for ways to reduce his workload to preserve his health and overall efficiency.
After simulating every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times, BetQL’s NFL Model projects Harris to accrue the following stats.
As you can see above, the model doesn't project Harris to find the end zone on the ground more than he did last season, but it does project him to be more efficient with fewer carries. Last year, he only averaged 3.9 yards per carry, but BetQL's simulation has him averaging 5.5 yards per rush in 2022. To put that into perspective, both Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season.
Not only that, but it projects Harris to lead the entire NFL in rushing yards, with 1,515. For reference, Taylor led the league in rushing last year with 1,811 and he was the only rusher to eclipse Chubb's 1,259 mark. The model is projecting Taylor to amass 1,446 yards this season, Derrick Henry to put up 1,417 and 14 other backs to get over the 1,000-yard threshold. Of course injuries will most likely come into play, but that's notable since only seven accomplished that feat last year.
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